I believe the Middle East is experiencing broad strategic political realignments, with insurgent forces gaining in strength, and entrenched forces entering a period of stagnation. Unsurprisingly, the regional flux is being driven by the decline of empire, and the attendant regional state opportunism. If current trends continue, the next decade will likely see a regionally diminished Egypt, an increasingly isolated Israel, and eventually less American interventionism and sponsorship. Concurrently, Syrian power and prestige will increase, Lebanon will consolidate Hezbollah’s moral authority, and Turkey will increasingly emphasize its Eastern and Islamic roots to enhance its regional role. What happens in Iran depends in large part on whether America and Israel attack, I believe. The assumption that the American empire is in decline is crucial to this analysis, so it’s worth spending time explaining its basis.
In a sense, the decline of the American Empire was hardwired into the empire’s ascendancy. The Model-T-Fordization of American society, the society-wide perception that today’s big purchase could be paid for tomorrow, has played an outsized role in the growth of that empire. Americans are the world’s biggest consumers of credit. Consequently, corporate profitability became unlinked with the productive capacity of money, and instead became dependent on demand for credit, which carries an interest rate; the cost of money. It’s more profitable for me to sell a car with a 10-year payment schedule than it is for me to sell the same car today at today’s real value. Here’s an excellent article from Harper’s shedding some light on the process of capital shift and interest rates.
As productive capacity, the money available for invention and creative research, is funneled into servicing the debt of ‘cost-of-money’ financial instruments, like collateralized debt obligations, and credit default swaps, the broader society suffers from a dearth of both talent and production – the real engine of economic growth. Many people from my graduating class, me included, took jobs on Wall St., and didn’t produce anything with a real consumption value. Without getting into too much detail, the cost of money fluctuates in real-time, and risk-averse bankers structured many financial instruments with that in mind. Many mortgages, car payment plans, etc., are ‘floating-rate’, or ‘variable-rate’ loans. The interest rate a borrower pays is linked to a reference rate, usually the three-month London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) rate which is literally the interest rate banks in London pay to other banks in London to borrow money. Your home mortgage may carry a 3.5% + reference interest rate, which is why the size of your monthly payments fluctuates. LIBOR is impacted by many things, not least among them the rates at which governments can borrow from one another and the capital markets.
So when the US government decides to undertake a big war, or several, without shoring up capital (i.e. raising taxes) its cost of capital is likely going to rise. Here’s how that happens: US treasury rates, the interest rates paid by the US treasury to borrow money from the capital markets, rise correspondingly with US credit risk, which is the risk that the US government will be unable to service its debt obligations. The perception of US credit risk increases as it issues more and more debt to finance its ever more expensive wars, also dropping the value of its currency, diminishing the real value of outstanding debt. That perception also increases when it guarantees the debt of third parties. When you hear that the US has extended billions of dollars in debt guarantees to Israel, it is telling the capital markets that it is guaranteeing Israeli government debt, thereby lowering the interest rates Israel has to pay to borrow money from the capital markets. The buyers of US treasuries (China, pension funds, etc…) take that into account, and demand higher interest rates, also impacted by a weaker dollar, to buy US government debt instruments. Consequently, US banks and corporations, whose fortunes are directly and indirectly linked to the solvency of the state, also suffer from the perception of increased US government credit risk. Banks have a fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders, and act more responsibly than the US government. When their credit risk increases, they shore up capital by charging higher interest rates and in other ways. The US taxpayer ultimately pays for US government expenditures – in this case, war – twice. First, by shouldering higher interest rate payments today, and later, by paying taxes.
The real story is much more complicated that what I’ve outlined here, and the relationships described are impacted differently in different circumstances. There are many factors that impact US government solvency, the housing bubble, and the rates Israel pays to borrow money to occupy Palestine. And it wasn’t only George Bush’s and Barack Obama’s wars that adversely impacted the US economy; Bill Clinton and Alan Greenspan played a big role with their illusory economic boom in the nineties. However, I believe that the American empire is declining, in part because of what I described above. Moreover, that decline is attributable to structural weaknesses in the American political system which are not easily correctable; think of the current healthcare bill fiasco. But that’s another essay altogether and I hope the reader will indulge me; that assumption is crucial to my analysis, which is why I spent so much time speaking about the capital markets – the real source of American power.
It’s no secret that America’s participation in two shooting wars and a shadowy war-like program – the War on Terror – has greatly diminished its capacity to project its power. Friendly and unfriendly countries have been quick to capitalize on the opportunities provided to them by American neoconservatives and neoliberals. Brazil, Russia, India, China and Iran are the most obvious opportunists. But there are losers too. Egypt is one country whose political structure and historical reliance on American money has made it incapable of advantageous political maneuvering.
The ossified regime of Hosni Mubarak relies heavily on American subsidies; America has provided over $50 billion in military and economic aid since 1975. Despite its obvious reliance on America, forged by a cold peace with Israel, Egypt has harbored hopes of being a moral and political leader in the Middle East. For a long time, the Egyptian regime attempted to balance its obligations to the United States – for instance, colluding with Israel to enforce the siege on the Palestinians in Gaza – with vacant rhetorical appeals to the Arab world on behalf of those selfsame Palestinians. Indeed, Egypt largely succeeded because of its strategic importance as an intermediary between the Palestinians on one side and the Americans and Israelis on the other. This was especially the case when extremist governments in America and Israel adopted rejectionist, anti-dialogue policies regarding Hamas.
Recent years, however, have seen the decline of Egyptian influence in the region. That decline can be traced to diminished American prestige and power in the region, which permits some European states to take a more active role in Middle East diplomacy. Wedded to unpopular and dysfunctional American policies, like torturing prisoners kidnapped by American agents, the Egyptian regime only gains in infamy across the Arab and Muslim world. Meanwhile, the insurgent Europeans offer Hamas alternative diplomatic outlets; the prestigious Gilad Shalit portfolio, once handled by Egypt, is now being handled by the Germans. So while American money sustains the Mubarak clan, it has inextricably linked Egyptian polices to those of the Americans and Israelis, ultimately undermining Egyptian regional influence. That’s not to say that the Egyptians are wholly without recourse. For example, I believe that the decision to build the steel wall between Gaza and Egypt is partly in response to Hamas’ decision to avoid reconciling with Fatah – a project the Egyptians expended great political capital on. Egypt continues to exert pressure by refusing to allow the international Gaza Freedom March delegation access to the Strip. This may be a punitive measure in response to Hamas’ decision regarding the Shalit portfolio.
Egyptian perfidy and American decline has also permitted other regional states to benefit, with the Assad regime in Syria gaining the most. Syrian sponsorship of Hezbollah allows the Syrians to bask in each Hezbollah victory over Israel while incurring little cost in the process. For instance, the 2006 Hezbollah victory over the Israeli Army was enjoyed as a moral victory in both Syria and Iran. Meanwhile, Lebanon suffered the total impact of the destruction wrought by Ehud Olmert and his Zionist government.
The Syrians have pressed their advantage and undertaken several strategic maneuvers to strengthen their hand. For instance, oblique references to negotiations with Israel, which are unlikely, have permitted the Europeans to engage directly with the Assad regime. Furthermore, insistence that the Erdogan government be a party to those negotiations, at the expense of the French, has strengthened the Syrian orbit in the region by enhancing Turkish prestige – recently a key ally. The Turks in turn, have become increasingly sympathetic to the Muslim and Arab world. Mr. Erdogan’s domestically well-received confrontation with Shimon Peres at Davos serves as a testimonial, as does the recent cancelation of war games with Israel. The perception that Turkey can be a meaningful player in the region vs. playing a peripheral role in Europe acts as an inducement to further strengthen ties with Syria. The two countries inked a free-trade agreement in 2004 and recently lifted visa requirements resulting in greater economic activity between them.
Mr. Assad has also deftly stayed above the Iranian-American/Israeli fray, even manipulating that conflict to his advantage. Iran, in need of economic outlets and moral backing, has relied on the Syrians for support. Hezbollah, which serves as a critical Iranian deterrent against Israeli attacks – in much the same way that American soldiers stationed Iraq and Afghanistan serve as a deterrent against American attacks – is partially supplied by Iran through Syria.
The image of a weeping Emile Lahoud entreating Condoleezza Rice to intervene during the 2006 Israeli bombardment of Lebanon did much to undermine America’s allies in the region. That image was juxtaposed by a firm and resolute Hassan Nasrallah rallying the nation to steadfastness, and eventually, victory. Hezbollah emerged from the conflict invigorated, and aid from Iran and Syria helped to rebuild the southern part of the country quickly and efficiently. American allies in Lebanon, by contrast, were abandoned during the conflict. And promises of aid and support went largely unfulfilled. The new Hariri government in Lebanon appears to have learned the lessons of the past. While Lebanon currently receives roughly a billion dollars in annual US government aid, that aid is presently jeopardized by Hezbollah’s greater inclusion in government following recent statewide elections. Whether because of decline in American influence and fortunes, or because of a possible cooling in relations between America and Lebanon, Mr. Hariri is improving ties with the Syrians. His calculus has shifted; there is much to be gained by working with the liberators of southern Lebanon and their sponsors, while the value of American sponsorship continues to sink.
Needless to say, none of this augurs well for Israel. Its standing with Egyptian people is dismally low, so that the cold peace has gotten colder. In Jordan, MPs are demanding that the treaty there be rescinded – although that is unlikely. To the north, Hezbollah has transformed its military gains into political gains and has won greater legitimacy through meetings with European representatives. Syria, the most ascendant regional power, grows closer to Turkey, which has also retreated from its cooperation with Israel. Its principal sponsor is economically strained, and mired in costly conflicts around the globe, powerless to end its increasing moral delegitimization – even suffering from the association. It is possible that Israel may look for a new sponsor. Avigdor Lieberman’s recent visit with Vladmir Putin may be a sign of a loss of confidence in the Americans. But any state that adopts Israel as a client will suffer from all the problems of association that the Americans have – outlined extensively in The Israel Lobby. Furthermore, I do not see what is to be gained as Israel enters its ‘international pariah’ stage. If anything, insurgent great powers – like India and China – have much to gain from Iranian energy stores, which are currently mostly off limits to the West.
In my view, all of the elements described above are positive. It is in America’s own best interest to cease to be a force for imperial injustice – as it is overwhelmingly perceived to be. And retreat from Empire means more resources spent at home. The American people deserve to see their money spent building Maryland rather than Kandahar, and they deserve to see their sons brought home. The British Empire dissolved, and British prosperity did not suffer as a result. As for the regional states, as they gain in strength, they will be more capable of limiting the destruction wrought by a flailing America and Israel – see the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the worrisome prospect of war in Iran. Incredibly, the best hope for avoiding a war in Iran may be a robust Hezbollah and increased vulnerability of American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ahmed Moor is a 25-year-old Palestinian-American from the Rafah refugee camp. A graduate of the University of Pennsylvania, he now lives in Beirut.
I’m surprised that more isn’t being made of the terrorist car bombing that killed several members of Hamas in Lebanon – as well as Hezbollah men who came to try to disarm the bomb.
The obvious suspect is of course Israel, but there is nothing obvious about Lebanese politics, and everyone seems to be everyone else’s enemy.
Fatah is now synonymous with Mosad+CIA agents.
All now belong to the same team, all work for Israel’s security apparatus, paid for by our taxes.
As boring as this may sound, but if a Hamas member was gunned down, then one or all of the above entities would highly likely have a hand in it.
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We see Israel tightening relations with China, India, and Russia, could it be possible that Israel would jump ship if they felt the Obama administration to be pushing to hard? Make a shift to massively support China for example? With drones, thanks, and other weapons?
This is a legitimate concern, but it is unlikely to occur.
Why?
Simply because there is no Israeli lobby or the kind of sympathy for the state of Israel that exists in the United States and Western Europe.
Yes, Israel could provide military technology, drones, and other items, but I highly doubt China or India would prefer these gimmicks over access to real energy stores.
The Chinese need Arab oil, not Israeli bullshit. For the Chinese, the issue of Israel is just doing the usual trading/business – not like here where our president has to always preempt his mideast statements with the customary:”Our friendship and commitment to Israel is unshakable blah blah blah…”
No sane rising world power would touch Israel, not even with a ten-foot pole.
Yes folks, we have a bunch of rouges running around the holy lands.
I too worry about that. Israel especially, seems to be cosying up to Russia and India. We don’t need to worry much about Russia – it’s past it, and India is an unreliable ally – it depends entirely on who’s in power.
The people who fight the invaders – are known as “freedom-fighters” and not insurgents. All imperial empires kiss the dust, especially when they become immoral. That’s Divine Law. The great imperial emires of the past, Greek, Roman, Chinese, Moorish, Abbasid, Ottoman, British, USSR, etc. all went down the drain. Now it’s time for the USrael imperialism to become history. They may not be destroyed by another imperial power – but by its own freedom-loving people.
In the Middle East and the Muslim world at large – Islamic Iran has already taken the leading role, followed by Turkey. Bibi has already admitted Hizb’Allah’s dominant position in Lebanon. Hizb’Allah is the only Arab fighting force which has defeated Israel since 1948.
Israel always had secret relations with Russia, China and India. It came closer to the US because the US has the largest Jewish population in the world and its members make the great majority of country’s 3500 billionaires and 300,000 millionaires. Now, since Iran is the only country in the world surrounded by five nuclear power – Zionist regime is jumping into bed with the Muslim co-haters, Hindutva in India.
Zionist Troika against Pakistan
link to rehmat1.wordpress.com
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Brilliant analysis, Ahmed. Difficult to believe you’re just 25 with such worldliness.
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I believe he meant “wordiness.”
Yeah, we understand you don’t handle anything with more than six or eight letters with any great alacrity of comprehension.
OhioJoes you really are an asshole.
You’ve attacked me on a personal basis, which I greatly resent (nothing to do with the subject under discussion).
So I’m going to reveal the crap you produce every time you post here.
None of it is original because you are a dum-dum.
You realize of course, OJ is actually just jealous of you, Mr. Parker. You’ve actually gone out into the world on your own terms, lived your dreams, and fought your own battles.
OJ, on the other hand, is just some dumpy white guy in Cincinnati who let himself be carted around the world following blind orders and selling out the US military to “allies,” who was brought back home only to be dumped back into the Midwest and forgotten like a used tissue. He’s basically a parrot who’s been deprived of a shoulder to sit on.
If anyone really cares here is the real reason for the decline of the “empire,” we can wax eloquent about the instruments and aim, but this is what it all boils down to –
CAPITALISM HITS THE FAN PART 1
CAPITALISM HITS THE FAN PART 2
The rest is merely elementary
Oh, and by the way, they have not learned their lesson yet and are trying to resurrect the disaster – it does not matter to them, because you, the people, pay for it every time. So wait for round two, it is not over yet, so far you have been enjoying a picnic compared to whats down the road. But will do anything to change it? No, enjoy yourselves.
It’s definitely not over. As someone who studies economics, it’s obvious that the crisis has just been delayed. None of the underlying problems have been addressed. There are two options:
a) The US (and UK) recovers quickly by not getting rid of its bad habits (excessive spending/borrowing) and having an almighty crash a couple of years later. It will be similar to this one, but we won’t be able to afford another round of bailouts and stimuli.
b) The governments get their acts together, but that will mean years of muted economic growth.
CAPITALISM HITS THE FAN SHORT FORM
For those with challenged schedules
The observation of some US decline is likely accurate.
The projection of whom will be important powers in the world, and/or the region, are wishful thinking.
It is equally likely that Israel will be the dominant power in the Middle East, IF it accepts the Arab League proposal sufficiently to treaty with Palestine.
THAT would create the change towards acceptance of the majority of Israelis that are simply civilians, willing to enter economic relations with those that are willing to keep contracts.
That requires reforms on Israel’s part, but will likely happen, as the absurdity of fortress Israel is realized.
The sensitivities that SEEK to isolate Israel unnaturally, are exactly the ones that will make any transition tragically painful and immoral for all involved.
The idea of Hezbollah moral leadership is ludicrous.
They are moral leadership in only limited criteria.
You say that about all Arabs, Witty.
Richard,
The idea of Hezbollah moral leadership is ludicrous.
Did you forget this?
“In ONLY condemning, he commits to the approach of militancy, which is a failing approach.
and
“It would be wonderful if you considered the extent to which your militancy cements the relationships that keep Gazan Palestinians isolated.”
Your words. Did you forget them?
Or does your proscription against condemning only apply to those who condemn the actions of Israel? Caught with your hypocrisy pants down around your ankles again? Go ahead, explain how its hunky-dory for you to condemn Hezbollah, but an “approach of militancy” when anyone condemns Israel’s actions. You’re demonizing Hezbollah. You claim to be all about respect for the other. If you aren’t willing to listen to your own advice, why should anyone else?
Tree,
If you consider lying to the world about the location of the long-planned abduction to be moral leadership, or their political opportunism within Lebanon to be moral leadership, then we are on different planets.
Its internal party politics, supported by aggressive militia tactics.
Wake up.
Identify and apply criteria.
Again, Witty, you are resorting to condemnation, which you have insisted is an approach to militancy and will only lead to further suffering. You are by your own criteria a part of the problem not the solution.
You did not answer my question. Why are you condemning Hezbollah when you consistently claim than any condemnation of Israel is a form of aggression and counterproductive to peace? Why are you not applying your own strictures consistently? Please, after having to listen to your constant faux moralizing, I think we all deserve an answer to this question.
To paraphrase you,
The reason that this is argued at all by those that actually test for themselves whether they are humanists (rather than puppets or opportunists), is the blinders applied to the behavior of [Israel. ]
You aren’t a humanist, Richard. You are a hypocrite. You have a right to condemn Hezbollah if you want, but its the height of chutzpah for you to lecture everyone here about your higher morality and how you don’t believe in condemning when you very well do believe in condemning, its just that you don’t like Israel to be condemned because your blinders are big enough to blind an elephant.
Well, its been an hour and no answer to my question. Maybe you are taking your advice to Chaos to heart and taking an hour to cool your head.
I’m going to bed. I’ll be looking in the morning for you answer to why you think its acceptable for you to have double standards in your moralizing, and why Zionist blinders are so much better than the rest.
When I see aphorisms like “honorable and heroic Hezbollah”, I KNOW that I am being propagated to.
I don’t buy it.
Do you still think of the 2006 abduction as in Lebanon as Nasrallah initially claimed (and Juan Cole gullibly repeated for a week).
Of course you don’t buy it, Witty. The IDF are your pure holy warriors who are destroying the barbarian Arab hordes.
Dude, seriously, we get it. You hate Arabs.
You are still avoiding the question, Richard. You have been caught condemning Hezbollah when you claim that condemnation is “aggression” and “militancy” and that you are above that. Well, you obviously aren’t. So why the double standard? Why can’t Israel be condemned when it lies(and it’s lied repeatedly over decades)? Or when it does other condemnable actions? Why won’t you drop your blinders and your platitudes when it comes to Israel’s actions?
And again, you are putting words in others mouths here. The words “honorable and heroic Hezbollah” exist nowhere in this thread but in your post. You are trying desperately to change the subject rather than face your own double standard. Be brave, address the question. The question is not about Hezbollah. The question is about your double standard. Is it wrong to condemn and is condemnation a “militant” and “failing” approach? Or is it not?
“If you consider lying to the world about the location of the long-planned abduction to be moral leadership, or their political opportunism within Lebanon to be moral leadership, then we are on different planets.”
As opposed to say lying to the world about the long-planned of Gaza or the long-planned attack on Lebanon Witty?
“Do you still think of the 2006 abduction as in Lebanon as Nasrallah initially claimed (and Juan Cole gullibly repeated for a week). ”
Do you still think the 2006 was a response to the so called abduction on the Israeli side of the border when not only did Olmert admit to the Wonigrad Commission that the attack on Lebanon had been planned long in advance, but it was also reveled that Israel had informed Blair on Bush of it’s plans in advance and had been shopping the attack on Lebanon in the US at lest 6 months prior?
What, as opposed to what Israel is doing to Gaza and the West Bank? Your Wittypocrisy is showing again.
This is a supurb essay.
I’m painfully aware of my country’s decline. We have serious structural economic and social problems, and it’s obvious that Russia, China, and smaller regional powers “smell blood” and are moving to fill the power vaccuum.
Sadly, I think this is the best thing for us. I’m not opposed to imperialism in principle, but we do it very badly.
It’s a shame that democracy and human rights will take a back seat when the likes of China rise, but we have only ourselves to blame.
How have our states promoted either? Invading countries illegally, propping up oil dictators, supporting states that ought to be pariahs, torturing people we don’t like, suspending habeas corpus whenever we feel like – we are no better, which is why it’s time for other states to take up the leadership.
Who is Hizb’Allah? Let us judge it from Israel Occupation Force (IOF) POLL, shall we!!!
The result of a POLL taken amongst Israeli military officers, reported by Major Dr. Ruby Sandman in the “Israeli” military magazine – paints a totally different views than the Israeli HASBARA goons want the world to believe. The poll says that the impression within the Israel Occupation Force (IOF) is that the performance of IOF was inferior to that of Hizb’Allah. Here is the breakdown:
Intelligence: IOF (6 points) vs Hizb’Allah (7 points)
Strategy: IOF (5 points) vs Hizb’Allah (9 points)
Leadership: IOF (6 points) vs Hizb’Allah (8 points)
Pursuit of outcome: IOF (4 points) vs Hizb’Allah (8 points)
Control: IOF (8 points) vs Hizb’Allah (6 points)
Human management: IOF (9 poits) vs Hizb’Allah (5 points)
Supplies: IOF (8 points) vs Hizb’Allah (5 points)
Weapons: IOF (8 points) vs Hizb’Allah (5 points)
Rehab. & Reconstruction: IOF (7 points) vs Hizb’Allah (8 points)
Technology: IOF (9 points) vs Hizb’Allah (5 points)
Sandman writing in Israeli daily Maariv has warned the Zionist government that during the next round, Hizb’Allah will use thousands of “cells” each formed of four to five excellent infantry fighters, carrying medium-size machine guns and anti-tank rockets – and as soon as they enter Israeli-controlled Palestinian territory, they will receive support from the Native Palestinians. Sandman also warned the Zionist establishment to be prepared for the day when the US would not be there to protect the Zionist entity.
Poll: Israel vs Hizb’Allah
link to rehmat1.wordpress.com
Military performance is your measure of moral integrity?
Its not mine.
I regard Hezbollah as political opportunists. In retaining a militia that they bring to bear in domestic politics, an organization at least partially of thugs.
In retaining a militia rather than releasing sovereign monopoly of defense to the Lebanese military, a fascist coup.
And the IDF is not by the same token at least partially an organization of thugs?
And what do you call the settlers’ militia?
Fascist coup? Don’t you know the Lebanese regime has declared Hezbollah an official part of itself? Just as the IDF is an official part of Israel, and as Israel treats its settlers in the OT.
You have to understand, Witty is unclear on the definitions of “law” and “democracy” and “justice.” That’s why he has to keep putting those terms in quotes while the rest of us just rely on common sense, human decency and literally REAMS of documentation establishing jurisprudence, where as to him it’s all “vague.”
Israel is raping the US even as as it is stealing from it: Under Dennis Ross’s charter chairmanship of the JPPPI (Jewish Peoples Policy Planning Institute), among the first papers produced by strategic planners for the future of Israel was a study of how best to strengthen an Israel-China alliance, predicated on the recognition that US economic and political power would soon decline even as China’s star would rise.
American lawmakers, having been dog-and-ponied through Yad Vashem and Israel’s “blooming” hi-tech “desert,” are giddy with guilt and “admiration” (not to mention beholden for the financial contributions and political support or threat of non-support) are blinded to the threat within their midst.
Yesterday, in the post-almost-mortems of the incident at Detroit’s international airport, talking heads could not stop fulminating over the terror threat posed by a wealthy young Islamic Nigerian, but spoke not a syllable about the profound threat Israel presents to every American, by its demonstrated ability and willingness to cripple the American economy ad majorem Israeli gloriam.
Time to review Obama’s very first cabinet pick, the most important one to him:
link to antiwar.com
Obama’s appearance at AIPAC was the first warning.
His choice of Rahm, son of a Stern Ganger, was the second.
After the murderous Detroit incident the Islamophobic storm god will come roaring out of his cave again. How do we limit the sacrifices that will be offered to him?
We can’t. Look at the 1960′s, and the Civil War that preceded it. The struggle against racism in the United States has always required a sustained level of violence and bloodletting. And this time around the intellectual and philosophical ones — the Abraham Lincolns and the Lyndon B. Johnsons, Benjamin Franklins and Thomas Jeffersons — have been completely shut out of American politics.
I think sooner or later, American society is simply going to tear itself apart and unlike with the Civil War, there really isn’t going to be anyone who will pull it back together again. Little known fact that people overlook… most Muslims in the US are still African Americans.
So we are very much looking at a new race war, here.
Speaking of dwindling:
Here’s a recent article describing how Israel is increasingly a failed state–including btw the correct timeline for Israel’s instigated turkey shoot a year ago, and also (in the comments section) a counter argument describing Israel as at the apex of power, a virtual ever-growing Goliath astride the world:
link to commondreams.org
The only point I slightly disagree with is that Hezbollah serves as an Iranian deterrent to Israel.
I think it is prudent that we be more honest with ourselves. If Israel were to launch an invasion on Iran, Hezbollah would be powerless to do anything to really stop Israel or even remotely hinder them. Hezbollah, as formidable as they are, is still in reality a guerilla fighting group armed with relatively primitive weapons. Sure they got some anti-tank weapons and highly dedicated soldiers but that does not mean that they would be able to pose a real military threat to the IDF, especially if they were to invade Israel.
Furthermore, even if Hezbollah were to launch a 1000 Katyusha rockets at Israel everyday, for the duration of Israels assault on Iran, it wouldn’t do much to stop Israel from dropping bunker busters on Iranian positions. Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal is more of a psychological threat than a real military threat to the state of Israel.
My opinion is that Iranian support for Hezbollah is largely symbolic and that Iranian continued support of Hezbollah acts as a way to boost Irans prestige in the region. Every military victory accomplished by Hezbollah is a victory for Iran and a slap in the face to the Western backed puppet regimes of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan.
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