What will another Lebanon war do for Obama’s Cairo speech?

Friends dont let friends drive drunk. You’ve heard that line about the U.S. relationship with Israel, that we’ve enabled them in out-of-control behavior for a long time. Well, Turkey is actually disenabling. Turkey is pissed due to Gaza and the diplomatic insult of last week. From Haaretz. As you read this, just try and imagine the American press being this frank about Israel’s out of control militarism.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week warned Lebanese leaders that Israel may be planning an attack on its northern neighbor, Lebanese sources told the London-based Arabic language daily A-Sharq al-Awsat on Thursday.

At a meeting in Ankara with Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and President Michel Suleiman on Monday, Erdogan declared that Israel was endangering world peace by using exaggerated force against the Palestinians, breaching Lebanon’s air space and waters and for not revealing the details of its nuclear program.

Erdogan called on the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council to pressure Israel over its nuclear program in the same way that the international community has been dealing with Iran.

Posted in Israel/Palestine

{ 42 comments... read them below or add one }

  1. Avi says:

    In 2008, Turkey was mediating between Israel and Syria over a possible peace treaty. Erdogan and his team spent valuable time and effort working behind the scenes trying to reach a breakthrough in the talks.

    Then in late 2008, Olmert visited Turkey and spent eight hours in a one-on-one meeting with Erdogan. So, the Turks felt they had established mutual trust and understanding with the Israelis. According to news reports from various outlets across the Middle East and Europe, Erdogan had asked Olmert about Gaza. Erdogan wanted to know if Israel was planning some kind of operation in Gaza. But, Olmert said unequivocally that Israel had no plans to escalate the situation or attack Gaza. A week later, Olmert unleashed hell on the Gaza Strip.

    So, I can understand Erdogan’s indignation. This wasn’t just a violation of international law on the part of Israel, or a matter of oppressing a weak minority. Instead, it became a personal matter when Israel insulted Erdogan and his government and violated the trust they thought they had.

    • Taxi says:

      Obama’s Cairo speech is already down the toilet.

      But if Israel is interested in having it’s military Central Command in Tel Aviv hit by a Hizbollah medium-range missile or two, then they should definitely start another war with Lebanon :)

      • Citizen says:

        Imagine how Chamberlain felt when he discovered Hitler never intended to honor
        “that piece of paper.” Truman was equally annoyed when he discovered Israel never intended to honor the UN partition borders he, Truman, thought were the new boundaries to the new (not “Jewish” but) state of Israel he was recognizing. And how about all those new fake home cement foundations being slapped down while Obama’s people thought they were going to get a settlement freeze? Israel is the king of shelf agreements, both oral and on paper.

        • Julian says:

          That’s an interesting spin. All the history books are wrong. Israel rejected the partition resolution and Israel launched an all out war against the entire Arab world.

        • Avi says:

          By all accounts, Hasbara notwithstanding, the partition plan was a crock. It was similar to Ehud Barak’s “unprecedented” offer to Arafat at Camp David in 2000.

          Privately owned Jewish land in 1947 amounted to about 5% of historical Palestine. If you look at the partition plan, you’ll notice that Israel stood to gain more than 50% of historical Palestine from the UN partition while having never actually owned that land, legally. In light of that, it’s quite astonishing that you’re accusing “the Arabs” of rejecting the plan. Who wouldn’t?

          In reality, the 1948 war wasn’t a loss at all for Israel. In fact, given that it resulted in Israel taking over land that wasn’t within the boundaries of the “partition plan” and it allowed Israeli leadership to carry out the ethnic cleansing while claiming that unfortunate crimes were committed in “the fog of war”, the war ended up benefiting Israel.

        • potsherd says:

          Avi, it is unlikely that Julian will take note of your facts. His brain-intake valves are clogged with kindergarten hasbara from the hate sites he frequents.

        • Citizen says:

          Yeah, it’s all your spin. Anyone who wants to check out the facts just go to the Truman Library Archives, and make sure you read his applicable diary passages.

        • Citizen says:

          My comment was directed at Julian, one of the semi-regular hasbara agents who plague this blog.

        • Citizen says:

          Both Avi and postsherd have a better grip on reality–Julian is an Israel Firsters, Israel right or wrong. Goering would understand his fight
          between Jews and Gentiles; who will win the Darwinian survival? It’s a zero sum game according to both Julian, Goering, and the current Israeli government leaders–Uncle Sam is the dupe; he thinks rubber-stamping Israel is the way to go, which shows you the American congress and White House is comprised of Americans who simply want the good life for their own families–not a problem, except most Americans would like their reps to be considering
          more than their own extended families–the USA as a whole would like their government to mean more than a HS prom….some Americans actually
          wish someone to consider average Americans, and most especially USA GIs
          (jump from here to a McDonald’s job application in lieu of a US Army or Marine job application).

        • Shingo says:

          “‘Israel rejected the partition resolution and Israel launched an all out war against the entire Arab world. “‘

          As a matter of fact they did.

          “The acceptance of partition does not commit us to renounce Transjordan; one does not demand from anybody to give up his vision. We shall accept a state in the boundaries fixed today. But the boundaries of Zionist aspirations are the concern of the Jewish people and no external factor will be able to limit them.”
          David Ben-Gurion, in 1936

          Ben Gurion described a “‘partial Jewish state’” as just the beginning: “‘a powerful impetus in our historic efforts to redeem the land in its entirety.’” In a meeting of the Jewish leadership in 1938, Ben Gurion shared his assumption that “‘after we build up a strong force following the establishment of the state – we will abolish the partition of the country and we will expand to the whole Land of Israel.’”

        • yonira says:

          Plague this blog?

          Do you seriously want an environment where you lefties can pat each other on the back, tell each other how bad Israel and America is? How is that beneficial to anyone but yourselves and your egos?

          How is that gratifying at all, will you guys have contests on who can revise history the best? Or come up w/ the best Zionists conspiracies?

        • How have we revised history? Care to elaborate on that claim?

          And what Zionist conspiracies? Is detailing how Israel dispossess the indigenous population of Palestine a conspiracy theory now?

        • aparisian says:

          yonira can you reply in a civilised way? give us your arguments and stop your ZioNazi insults.

        • Good point, yonira.

          I don’t like contrarians being harassed in blogs. We should try and debunk their arguments, rather than curse them.

          That said, I prefer the contrarians to make concrete points based on sources, instead of making blanket assertions and dismissing people and opinions based on their personal tastes or hunches. It cuts both ways.

          BTW, in pro-Zionist blogs it’s also customary to attack dissenters, and people often get banned because of their dissent — which is not the case at MW.

        • potsherd says:

          If yonira ever did make a good point based on anything factual, it would be one thing. There are Zionists here who do, but yonira isn’t one of them.

        • Cliff says:

          yonira isn’t intellectually capable of giving Zionism a respectable voice on this blog.

          WJ is the closest I think.

          Remember Emily Hauser? She just ran off after people actually read her full-response.

          The notion that we should treat our dissidents on the blog w/ respect is a matter of principle. However, I don’t see how you can convince people that Jews had the right to create a State on top of an existing society.

          How much land did the Jews of Palestine own prior to the war? How was the partition fair?

          Etc. etc.

          You could make a case that changing the makeup of the society now by allowing refugees in, would cause more harm than good or something like that possibly.

          I see no Zionist argument against a 2-State solution that would not end in everyone here laughing them off the blog and dismissing them as mental cases.

          Perhaps, that is why so many new additions to the demonstrations and such are now the so-called ‘Liberal’ Zionists – who are now showing their support of a 2-State solution finally. It is because the adventure into the territories is over. They have what they want. They’ve reached the extent to which the Zionist dream can take them w/ the ‘civilized’ world.

          They can safely make their statements about Jewish and Arab brotherhood because the job is done.

          Anything beyond that, will reveal how entrenched the US is in Zionist politics. Plus, you’re going to have to start talking about Jewish power. And people are too chicken-shit to do that openly, because it’s a social taboo.

          I think the utter lack of articulate AND intellectual honest Zionist voices on this blog is quite telling of the legitimacy of the ideology in the first place. It’s bullshit.

          No one ever had the right to just create a political entity for [whatever] on top of a pre-existing society and people. No amount of religious nonsense is going to convince the refugees, the widows, the orphans, and the maimed and downtrodden who had to ‘make way’ for the Jewish State.

        • Shingo says:

          Excellent points Cliff,

          I find it amusing how Zionists attack the Palestinians for not accepting the partition, yet think nothing of Israel’s flouting of dozens of UN Resolutions.

          As for the point about the job being done, this also explains the poolls many pro Zionists like to cite, showing more Israelis in favor of peace than Palestinians. Of course they want peace under the status quo.

          And yes, have to agree entirely about the lack of articulate AND intellectual honest Zionist arguments. It astounds me how otherwise intellgent and highly edcuated Zionists almost always refer to old debunked lies, nauseating hypocrisy and doubel standards and juvenile arguments when making the case.

    • Dennis Ross, master diplomatic, negotiator extraordinaire, founding chairman, Jewish Peoples Policy Planning Institute, and author, Statecraft and How to Restore America’s Standing in the World:

      chapter 9. Negotiations, Twelve Rules to Follow… Rule 3.: Build a Relationship of Trust with the Key Decision Maker

      How?….
      First and foremost, establish your credibility…never promise something and not deliver, and always deliver exactly what you promise…. Developing…an extraordinary degree of trust…is equally important with friends and allies [as with adversaries]. …

      Rule 10. Never Lie, Never Bluff…

      Taxi, is there room in that toilet for a double-flush?

  2. potsherd says:

    Israel has announced maneuvers on its norther border and sent a message to Lebanon declaring this is not the prelude to an attack.

  3. BradAllen says:

    The difference between Turkey and the US is that in Turkey, the Jewish lobby has no teeth. When Erdogan goes for reelection he has to worry about moslem votes not jewish.

    Obama knows no one in the Democratic party, his own close advisors or his sercretaries (namely Clinton) will support him if he puts any pressure on Israel. Clinton is biding her time and will try another shot at the presidency in the next term, to do this she needs the jewish lobby and she has already sold out to them on Bill’s advice. Will Clinton give up the presidency for the sake of Palestinians…not.

    Once Obama realizes he is a one term president, things will change. But in the meantime, like any politician, he is kissing up to power and the influence of the lobby.

    Israel has no choice but to invade Lebanon this spring, or early summer. Hizballah added a major arsenal of long range missiles with heavier loads from Syria, they also added SAM defense systems, not the best but will have a painful effect, this changes the balance that Israel likes to maintain which is a very weak enemy, whereas in this case, this enemy is growing stronger by the day. B-Yahou has already decided peace with Syria is too far off and too expensive, and he would likely risk an invasion of Lebanon to demilitarize Hizballah and then talk with Syria from a stronger position when they can’t rely on Hizballah to back them up. Obama will support this action and will come out blaming Hizballah and Iran for the war and he will rely on Egypt, Jordan and the Saudis to cover his back in the arab world. Israel can’t afford to wait much longer. Israel still wants to destroy Iran’s Nuclear capability but will want to neutralize Hizballah to avoid a northen front. The logic is simple. Neutralize Hizaballah to weaken Syria and then offer some of the Golan back to get a peace treaty then turn all your attention to Iran.

    • potsherd says:

      No, I think the 2010 war will be another hit on Gaza.

      • BradAllen says:

        wouldn’t count on it. Even Israel knows not stir up an already dead horse. Gaza is dead and it will take a long time before this becomes a target again. Gaza would cost more than Lebanon in public opinion.

        • potsherd says:

          Israel is still obsessed with the fact that Hamas in Gaza has weapons that can hit Israel. Of course, Lebanon and Iran also have such weapons, which is Israel’s motive to attack them, too. But rhetoric aside, they know that neither Iran nor Hezabollah will use their weapon without an Israeli provocation.

          In Gaza, otoh, Israel is provoking on a regular basis and can only expect retaliatory fire. So Gaza makes for the easiest and most likely immediate target. In my view.

    • Taxi says:

      I think you’re onto something Bradallen.

      Syria, Lebanon, Iran (possibly even Turkey) have recently make a security pact.

      Israel has no choice but to stick it’s fingers into that hornet’s nest to ‘activate’ it’s Iran solution.

      Attacking Gaza is something they’re already doing anyway regardless of Iran threat.

      I can tell you that in the region, people are waiting/prepared for shit to go down this year.

      • potsherd says:

        I don’t think Israel can handle more than one major act of aggression at a time. Gaza is easiest for them. Lebanon and Iran present complications.

        • Taxi says:

          Assaulting Gaza full scale does not address the Iran issue.

          Israel has no choice but to address Iran.

        • potsherd says:

          Israel can’t attack Iran this year, or any time w/o the assistance of the US. Since it has to attack something, I think Gaza is the obvious choice.

          Al-Jazeera thinks so, too. link to english.aljazeera.net

          For the Israeli political leadership, military and much of the Israeli public, the Gaza war, as Israelis refer to it, was about scaring the other side into submission, so that it will not dare to hurt Israel again. And, many believe, that was what Israel succeeded in doing.

          Yehuda Shaul, the co-director of Breaking the Silence, the Israeli human rights organisation that collects the testimonies of soldiers about abuses committed while serving in the Occupied Territories, says: “What I find most disturbing is that the military and most Israelis perceive [the war on Gaza] as a great success. They don’t recognise the price tag.”

          “And the fact that the military sees it as a great success means that the second round will be similar,” Shaul adds.

          Shaul’s organisation was attacked by the office of the Israeli military spokesperson, but he nevertheless hopes that some Israelis recognise the gravity of their actions.

          He points to the poll by Tel Aviv University’s War and Peace Index.

          When testimonies from soldiers were published soon after the war, few Israelis believed them, according to the index. But when Breaking the Silence published its report of chilling testimonies in July, the War and Peace Index found that the numbers who believed the testimonies rose from about 20 per cent to 43 per cent.

          ‘Cast Lead II’

          Still, the overwhelming majority of Israelis (76 per cent) saw no need to reinvestigate the operation in light of the testimonies. The pollsters believe that because of the prevailing view that the campaign was moderately or very successful (79 per cent), “the Israeli Jewish public is reluctant to deal with the question of its moral and human cost”.

          Some Israelis who supported the war see it very differently.

          Marek Glezerman, the director of the Obstetrics and Gynecology Department at Rabin Medical Center, says: “I thought it should be a short operation to stop the rockets.”

          “But it turned it to be a full blown war without concern for the other side and that leaves a very bad feeling,” adds the doctor who is a friend and colleague of the Gaza doctor Ezzedin Abouelaish.

          Glezerman believes that the quiet from the Gaza Strip is temporary: “The violence will come back. But at what price? It has not brought us closer to peace.”

          Meanwhile, some Israelis are talking about when Operation Cast Lead II will begin.

    • Danaa says:

      To be fair to Obama, no lobby goes unrewarded under the US political system. Watching the travesty known as HCR – a rather meek, if not still-born pass at health care threading it’s way through the machinations of “government in-inaction”, with mandates to buy third rate coverage by those least able to afford it, and lifting of the mandates on “large employers” who can well afford it and then some – should be part of the lesson plan for any afficsionado (sp?) of US politics (strange hobby, that).

      What we will end up getting on HCR is what the insurance lobbies, the big pharmas, the ama, the hospitals and the state lobbies will let us have. We may have on “our” side aarp and may be labor but both are looking out mostly for their own more narrowly defined member groups, and what with financial lobbies aligned on the insurance companies side, the overall result is exactly what it is shaping out to be – a Baucus senate plan, further whittled at the edges, with a couple of sops thrown to the poor, to the teachers and to labor. It is so absolutely predictable that it could be a branch of mathematics, with statistical uncertainty the only degree of freedom offered to the masses.

      The sad truth is that what Obama may or may not want matters not a hill of beans. Neither president, nor the occasional representative or senator, has any power to affect change that benefits real people – be they americans or palestinians – except in the margins, and on issues that stay well under the radar, or those that the big guys are neutral about. The entire congress is not much more than puppet theatre, with strings pulled every which way by the special interests and lobbies that fund the members and parties to which they belong. Our favorite lobby – aipac et al – runs off with the goodies it cares about as well as it does, not because they get more free ride than other lobbies, but because there’s no sufficiently powerful interest group that can forcefully stake any kind of issue-based opposition for any reason.

      So at this time, for palestine or gaza, we can’t even get a whittled down version of a “Baucus Bill” because there are insufficient number of other lobbies with competing interests. So far, the military-industrial is aligned with israel for obvious reasons, as is finance and wall street. cair is cowed and environmentalists and civil libertaraians have other fish to fry. The white house must have found this out by now. so the only way any positive action can happen is through fracturing of the traditional aipac interests. J street right now plays the role of big labor or AARP, an opposition sort of from within the stake holding industries. But clearly J street is not there yet. and when they get “there” – ie be a special interest to be reckoned with – it’ll be a much paler version of what any of us hope for.

      Still, not to be entirely negative, what we the people can do, is to support BDS as best we can – everyone in their own way. And the MFG actions, and blogs like this one, and even that new phenomenon we see in Israel that’s becoming known as “occupation tourism”. Go to israel, join a Bi’ilin demonstration. tell the story later. why not. Some day, not long from now, and if we are all good boys and girls, the level of pain to the zionist-powers-that-be will reach a threshold, and we’ll get our own “BAUCUS I/P Plan”. Which will not be anything like “peace” or a “solution” any more than HCR is a solution to the broken health care system. But it just may help lift the Gaza siege. Which is a start.

      • cogent analysis, Danaa.
        I’ve made it my own project to educate a candidate for a federal office in my state. I have to educate myself, first, in the guts of the issues, then, in the most effective means to persuade the candidate– “each one teach one.”
        I have been effective in changing the perceptions, just a little bit, of a fellow blogger who was diametrically opposed to my position; I changed her mind! I think I can move the position of one candidate for political office.
        I think I can I think I can….

  4. sammy says:

    Re: Lebanon

    I’m currently watching “Under the Bombs”, a film shot during the Israeli bombing of Lebanon in 2006. Its a very hard film to watch because except for the two actors, everything else, the people, their stories, the devastation, the bombs going off in the background are all really happening. Halfway through the movie, I can understand why the Hezbullah was born and why any right thinking Lebanese would hate Israel with a passion.

    • BradAllen says:

      I can only imagine the pain and suffering the poor people in Southern Lebanon had to face in 2006. Israel’s attack was barbaric and targeted civilian infrastructure which is a war crime, sadly, the West supported the attacks along with several lebanese leaders who thought it would eliminate Hizballah. 2006 was NOT a planned attack nor a response to the kidnapping of the soldiers. It was a knee jerk reaction by Olmert who wanted to cover up problems in his cabinet and ordered a brutal response. Contrary to the invasion by Sharon in the 80′s in 2006 Israel’s attacks were poorly coordinated, badly planned and suffered major setbacks which is why they increased their attacks on the civilian infrastructure. Just like Sharon’s invasion in the 80′s, the next attack on Lebanon will be massive and will include the bulk of their military machine, the objective will be to eliminate Hizabllah, which will be costly for both sides. The West will again support Israel and abandon Lebanon, just like they did in the past.

      • Taxi says:

        BradAllen,

        The country of Lebanon is united like never before.

        I wouldn’t underestimate their spirited resilience, or the military damage they’re now capable of inflicting back on the Israelis.

  5. I thonk BradAllen is sadly right about the prospects of another so-called ‘pre-emptive’ war by Israel against Lebanon, and about the state of American politics leading to their utter powerlessness to rein in their ‘little brother’, even if they were inclined to do so.
    Americans are utterly clueless about any other players than Israel in the Middle East.
    I last actually visited Lebanon in 1992-1995, when Americans were still not allowed to visit there, and the Israelis still occupied the southern 20% of the very small country.
    It was after the end of the long civil war, and Hizbollah were gearing up their social programmes in the south, starting a programme of renovating unoccupied local city hospitals destroyed by Israelis and their local goons during the previous 20 years. I hoped to win some eqcontracts in this programme, so I met with senior Hizbollah involved. I was very impressed by them, and the fact that their underlying purpose was entirely concerned with Lebanon, not with attacking Israel.

    I hope the recent alignments and agreements between Turkey, Syria, and Lebanon may even have some effect on Israel (although, from the Israelis’ recent diplomatic behaviour towards Turkey, they seem too arrogant and stupid to care).

  6. Sorry, pressed the wrong button. ‘eqcontracts’ should have been ‘equipment supply contracts’ (ie stoves fridges, etc).
    Anyway, I didn’t win any contracts, and I hope they spent their money on defence weapons instead.
    I will be cheering Hizbollah on if they manage to shoot down a few arrogant over-flying Israeli planes, and also if they bring the reality of war to northern Israel. (note: in the last episode, Jewish Israelis were evacuated from Northern Galilee, but Arab Israelis weren’t).

  7. BradAllen says:

    I envy you Richard. I wish i was able to visit the area and meet with the people there.

    I am very puzzled by the sudden friendship and the so called cooperation agreements between Syria, Lebanon and Turkey. Israel needs Turkey for an attack on Iran which is why they are working hard to fix this relationship. Barak is supposed to visit Turkey next week and try to keep the alliance alive, although i think he will find Turkey not as open as they used to be. I think arrogance and stupidity is playing an interesting role specially with Lieberman and his crew, the miltary however is nervous and want this relationship fixed.

    • Taxi says:

      Turkey’s membership application to the EU, having been time and again rejected by the EU, has now made Turkey turn away from the west and is looking eastwards to strengthen regional and historic alliances suck as Syria and Lebanon.

      Turkey, from here on, will be investing in itself as a regional wannabe mid-eastern power, not a wannabe European member.

      It is at the beckoning of American military contracts that Turkey has in the past ‘befriended’ Israel. Now, at the beckoning of Iran, Turkey will be purchasing military ware from China and so will no longer be unwittingly bound to Israel.

      This is the ‘new’ regional order taking nascent shape in the mid east.

      Israel is not part of the picture.

      Even the people of Cyprus and Greece hate the Israelis for what they’ve done to their neighbors over the years. Even they don’t want them around anymore.

      The will of the majority will eventually win the day.

  8. A major problem has been the long term open (and over-) funding of Israel’s tribal wars by dumb big brother US.

    I would like to open a challenge:
    Can anyone think of a single instance where the Israelis have contributed anything at all to the security of the United States ?

    Anything, anything will do. Please try hard.

  9. Rehmat says:

    Erdogan was really pissed off because while he was carrying on negotiations with Damascus on behalf of Israel – the later put a dager in his back by invading Gaza December 2008. Recently, paranoid Bibi has accused Erdogan government for “inching toward Iran”. The Zionazis in Israel government want Ankara to act like Washington, Ottawa, Paris and Bonn – that’s take orders from Tel Aviv. However, since mass victory of AKP in 2002 – the civilian government has been able to contain the power of the pro-Israeli Turkish military establishment, which is infested with Crypto-Jews. What Erdogan is trying to widen Turkey’s influence in counttries which are outside the Zionist grip – and that is not acceptable to the Zionist regime which showed its arrogance by insulting Turkish ambassador in Tel Aviv recently.

    Erdogan slams Israel on Lebanon
    link to rehmat1.wordpress.com

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