Went to see Jean-Pierre Filiu, author of “The Nine Lives of Al Qaeda” speak at the New American Foundation. Filiu a professor at Sciences Po in Paris, is a thin sensitive-looking man who devotes much of his life to studying communications and strategies of the amorphous terror organization whose 9/11 attack helped lure America into Iraq.
He believes Al Qaeda is on the wane (in its ninth life) and suffers from serious and possibly irremediable weaknesses: notably its lack of any serious religious legitimacy in the Muslim world, an absence of any accomplished and Islamic scholars associated with the organization. Secondly its failure to acquire and maintain a territorial or even a tribal base in the Arab world: it remains a grouping of individuals, pledged to Osama bin Laden.
This was, of course, encouraging to hear.
During the question period I asked whether Al Qaeda had much of point of view on the standoff over the West and Iran over the latter’s nuclear activities. Ah, an easy question, Filiu responded. “They pray every night for a war between the West and Iran.” It would create endless chaos in the Gulf, and provide perhaps their only vehicle to get back into Saudi Arabia, which is a main goal. (Unnoticed by most Americans, the Saudis won a major counterinsurgency campaign against Al Qaeda during the last decade.) A battle between the crusaders and the [Shi’ite] heretics, it’s their dream—and major hope to revive their movement."
Not that anybody needed to state the obvious, but it appears that once again Osama bin Laden is finding the government of Israel and its American echo chamber a very useful tactical ally.
Yes, the obvious is so obvious, especially given the aftermath of Shrub’s attack on Iraq, still unraveling, especially how Iran came out the winner, that I haven’t yet found any
worst case scenario posited even for purposes of discussion, debate, or US military or diplomatic strategy, counter-strategy, or for purposes of even academic study–Has anyone? If memory serves I have read a few general articles online addressing this issue.
Here’s one escalation scenario I found–including the Samson Option:
Israel attacks Iran’s nuclear facilities and/or Syria and Lebanon. These countries respond with massive rocket attacks using conventional bombs and even some chemical, biological or radiological weapons. Israel responds with nuclear strikes against these nations and Pakistan. Outraged Pakistan retaliates against Israel and pre-emptively attacks Israel’s ally/Pakistan’s enemy India, which retaliates. Israel initiates “Samson option” and attacks Arab and Muslim capitols, as well as “antisemitic” Europe and Russia. Russian regional commanders retaliate against Israel, its ally the U.S., and U.S. European allies and China, to destroy its nuclear capability. The U.S. retaliates against Russia and hits China’s nuclear capability. China uses any remaining nuclear weapons against Russia, the U.S. and India. India retaliates against China.
Here’s one scenario that assumes the USA attacks Iran–(“all options are on the table”)–it won’t be a cake walk as the initial foray by Shrub in to Iraq, and one immediate affect will be $10.00 per gal gas at the pump as Wall street spot trades:
link to globalresearch.ca
It’s a real nightmare scenario for the US even on the domestic front. I imagine if Israel attacks Iran, the USA will be quickly brought into the fray, both by the USA congress and White House, so the results for USA domestic front would be the same.
I think the threat of $10/gallon gas ought to be plastered on billboards all over the US.
The US taxpayers are fed up with the corruption in Congress, and Israel is at the heart of it. They’re giving away our money.
Could US – Israel Ties Crumble Over Iran
link to israelbehindthenews.com
WIN WIN WIN!
WIN WIN WIN
Obama wins — US befriends a nation of 70million educated people eager to consume western goods, with oil to trade for those goods. He averts pariah status for US and secures Gulf region stability, secure oil supply, help in Iraq & Afghanistan.
Iran wins — obviously. Without the threat of a US attack, and with US friendship, Iranian moderates have the space to urge reforms, and Iranian hawks can save face and still protect their country.
American people win — no more need to support a bloated defense industry to assure a supply of oil. Carter doctrine is reconsidered: don’t need it anymore; sooo 1970s… Americans regain control of their foreign policy decision making apparatus from Israeli influence.
Losers: Al Qaeda
Osama bin Laden
Americans have been undercharged for gasoline since whenever. I don’t honestly don’t know what the current cost of a (US) gallon is, but I suspect it may be a lot lower than many on this list:
link to money.cnn.com
If the price goes up to $10/gallon then Americans deserve it for cravenly omitting to protest US-prosecuted worldwide wars.
The $10.00 would only be for starters; it would keep going up dramatically.
Those are 2005 gas prices. At $10 (and rising after by the week) it would be more than double the highest price listed as of 2005… for starters.
Motorcycles (well, not HELOC-Davidsons) get great mileage, scooters even better. It would be possible to get around even at $10 gal.
Just thought I would point that out.
Call MSF, and get ready to ride.
Bicycles anybody? Heck, many Germans went to war back in the day on bikes. They used horses too. OTH, the Polish cavalry didn’t do to good against Stukas; then again the Stukas didn’t do to good against P-51 Mustangs. What’s that old saw, after nuke war they will be fighting with bows and arrows? Daily life is, after all a challenge.
Citizen, do you have a thorough understanding of how bicycles are propelled? You do realise it takes a lot of energy to pedal a bike, right? Well, I don’t know about you, but I think we should be saving energy.
And any method of transportation which requires men to shave their legs is immediately suspect. Our kids have enough gender-identity problems as it is.
So as you can easily see, motorcycles and scooters are the sensible solution.
Mooser, what do you think is more healthy for your body, pedaling a bike or riding a scooter or motorcycle? Sometime saving physical energy has bad side-effects, else being a couch potato would be praised more than it is. I never shaved my legs to ride my bike, not even when I had no other transportation available to carry out my household maintenance. As for gender identity, sports heros (e.g., bike racing competition) come in both genders.
I guess the dude must be born yesterday.
The famous historian R.T. Naylor in his interview with Counterpunch on June 21, 2003 had said: “Al Queda itself does not exist, except in the fevered imaginations of neo-cons and Likudniks, some of whom, I suspect, also know it is a myth, but find it extremely useful as a bogeyman to spook the public and the politicians to acquiesce in otherwise unacceptable policy initiatives at home and abroad. By those terms, Al Queda is cast like “the Mafia” and similar nonsense coming from police lobbies.”
link to rehmat1.wordpress.com
Juan Cole says much the same.
Osama has been totally, wholly dead for 9 years (he died of kidney probelms on Dec 13 2001). US intelligence knew he was on his last legs long before everyone (in the US) blamed him for 9/11. The US authorities even treated him at a hospital in Dubai in the summer of 2001.
Al Qaida was invented, as a name, by US prosecutors of the suspects of the Kenyan embassy bombings, in early 2001, purely as a means to demonstrate a conspiracy under the RICO laws.
I did considerable research on ‘terrorists’ for a prospective book, in 2000, about the kidnapping of a few tourists at Sipadan Island (where I had just been very near to, at Bongao, in Tawi-Tawi).
Nothing at all from the US formal briefings at the time, including the CIA and the FBI’s own websites had any mention at all of the name ‘Al Qaida’
The FBI still puts Osama at the top of their ‘terrorist wanted list’ but don’t mention anything at all about his possible involvement in ’9/11′
link to fbi.gov
Osama bin Laden and Al Qaida are both fakes, drummed up by the paid supporters of the military/industrial complex in the USA.
I’d call that voodoo politics-strategy. Works well on most Haitians and Americans. Here’s some pins for that doll.
Richard,
In case you haven’t seen the BBC documentary “The Power of Nightmares’ – all three parts are brilliant and elaborate on your assessment.
link to youtube.com
“Osama has been totally, wholly dead for 9 years”
Can you aver you’ve thoroughly examined him, and he’s not only merely dead, but sincerely and completely dead? Morally, ethically, spiritually, physically, positively, absolutely, undeniably and reliably dead?
You know, like The WWW.
Sounds pretty wobbly to me.
It doesn’t matter whether Osama bin Laden is alive or dead at this point. US policy has turned him into a legendary figure. Which, frankly, was sheer idiocy on the part of our government, since he was nothing more than a rich kook with a grudge against the Saudi royal family. We took an international crime boss whose penultimate accomplishment amounted to little more than brainwashing a half dozen disenfranchised young men into sneaking box cutters aboard a handful of commercial jets, and transformed his image into that of an existential threat to the American way of life.
Now that’s pretty good analysis. It certainly started with that re Osama. US foreign policy made his so much larger–now, hard to separate, huh? Point is , the
neocons in the USA government used him as a tool, and now they are the tool of subsequent history–too bad they, as individuals, won’t pay for it–the masses will.
“Not that anybody needed to state the obvious, but it appears that once again Osama bin Laden is finding the government of Israel and its American echo chamber a very useful tactical ally”
Have we ever let him down? Now that’s what I call international multi-culturalism. Or something.
Yeah, I think the Iran monster guy is cut in the same mold. He never fails either–like that battery rabbit, especially when he is intentionally mistranslated.
Sorry, sorry, now I remember what I wanted to say: In Uri Avnery’s article of Feb. 15 “Netanyahu’s Stink Bomb”, Avnery reveals his suspicions about the current financial and sexual “scandal” at the PA, as reported by Israeli news outlets, and gives a primer on the working of the Israeli government-journalism matrix. And down towards the bottom : “Twenty oligarchs control practically the whole of the Israeli economy, with the help of ministers and senior officials owned by them.”
Nice. PA corrupt, Israel corrupt, USA corrupt. With regimes like these, none of the respective constituencies need enemies as they have enough in the PTB over them.
Makes one wonder, bottom dollar, are they effectively and substantially more democratic than any Arab country? I know, it’s a matter of degree. But I’d feel better
about it if I walked on four legs or had flippers or wings.
No corruption or sex scandals for Israeli politicians, though. The hypocrisy is staggering.
Yep, staggering. Along with Avnery’s matter-of-fact recital of the system’s workings.
How come Al Qaida’s never attacked Israel?
Any takers?
That’s a good question. Pre-9-11, the USA was much more vulnerable, and after all, it is the Great Enabler, no?
Why would they need to? Al Qaeda attacked the United States to show the world what the United States really capable of — kidnapping, torture, invasions of countries on faked intel, casually dropping bombs on wedding parties with remote drones. Al Qaeda attacked Sunnis in Iraq after we were there, so that Sunnis would blame and attack Shi’ites.
What else could Israel possibly do to Muslims that they don’t already do, short of gas chambers and cremation ovens? So why does al Qaeda need to waste any time? Israel persecutes Muslims (among others) without any provocation from his organization.
Taxi,
Don’t you remember the Al Qaida cel uncovered in Gaza?
Oh, that’s right, it was another false-flag scenario from our favorite zionist regime – the were israeli operatives faking it … par for the course in this whole fake war on terror business
Actually, I thought that actually was an al Qaeda cell, it’s just that Hamas — like any other sensible government — dealt with an actual terrorist threat to its security.
Funny how that works, huh? Hamas actually goes after the real terrorists. What does Israel bring to the table? Well, those forged documents about Nigerian yellow cake came from somewhere…
i’m curious as to what the other contributors to these comments section think israel is really after with its desire for an attack on Iran …
my view is that this whole war on terror enterprise has been about israel establishing itself as the regional superpower and using U.S. blood and treasure to battle its designated enemies for it and to destabilize the whole region so israel can expand its territory through “security arrangement” along pipeline routes and its influence through the destabilization
radii,
I’m with you in your analysis.
Any mideast observer worth his salt KNOWS that EVERYTHING that’s been going in the mideast since ’48 has ALWAYS been about that wretched experiment called Israel.
When you are talking about a “war on terror” you are setting up an endlessly elastic
slingshot, aimed at whomever you don’t like. You can change the targets anytime. You are God. Of course, that’s the problem. Compare, a “war on decency.”
radii this presupposes that Israel has the luxury of long range planning. The zionist have been capable of that since Ben-Gurian. Today, and for at least the last 20 years, Israeli governments have struggled to maintain their coalition so only the most immediate short term projects can be treated and definitely no changes in direction. Since the trajectory that they are on is annexation of the WB, then that is mistaken as long term policy. They are fated to follow that policy to what end no one really knows (all that we can hope for is that the they do not drag us down with them, that in my view, is about all we can hope for).
My guess is that Israel’s attempt to push the US into war with Iran has two causes. One is that in the resulting chaos there will be a major international crisis, such that expelling the Palestinians might not be noticed, much as happened in the chaos following WWII. Second is the very real paranoia that Israelis experience with regard to their perceived enemies. War is the only medication they know for dealing with that chronic fear.
Israel is in a strategic crisis.
It can’t make peace. And it can’t launch another war presently.
This is due to the outcomes of Lebanon ’06, Gaza and the reluctant Obama ensconced in the White House).
In the immortal words of Nelson Muntz: Ha-ha!
The assassination of a Hamas man in Dubai may be the spark that Israel seeks. I, however, hope I’m wrong.
The Dubai job was yet another shoddy mosad number. I don’t believe it’s the spark they’re looking for.
But they sure as hell have pissed off a few million people overnight – that being the French, Irish and English populations.
So smart at making people hate them, Israelis are.
ed. “The zionist have been IN capable”
I’d sure like to know who keeps releasing those fake video and audio tapes. That nonsense has reached new levels of absurdity.
Just remember, Iran is Evil.
Evil, I tell you.
EVIL!
Evilevilevilevilevilevilevilevilevilevilevilevilevil!
Eeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeevvvviiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiillllllllll!
Evil.
A very good study and detailed study on Israeli colonisation of Palestine has been posted at:
link to electronicintifada.net
It concerns the Jewish National Fund, set up at the very beginning of the Zionist movement, in 1901, the JNF was the chief agent for the colonisation of Palestine.