At a panel I attended at Harvard last night, Roger Owen, an economic historian of the Middle East, said that the military is 40% of the Egyptian economy. 40% is extraordinary and probably explains a great deal. On the one hand, massacring the workers and customers is bad for business and for the army “brand”. On the other, under democracy, the workers and customers may attempt a takeover, friendly or otherwise.
This morning Al Jazeera is streaming live from Cairo and Alexandria, showing massive crowds. The Defense Minister visited Tahrir Square and informed the crowds that they would not be attacked, as Vice-President Suleiman said on ABC last night, in a very patronizing way. The regime may be trying to wait out the movement, avoid any provocations and hope it will die down, protect the 40% interest. According to AJ, Egyptian state TV is calling the crowds “demonstrations to support stability”. The army is manning checkpoints into Tahrir Square, and patrolling on foot. The AJ commentators note that concessions are only encouraging the movement.
At the panel, the US-Israel relationship came up only in passing. Moderator Nicholas Burns, of the Kennedy School and formerly the State Department, noted US interests in the Egyptian regime, beginning with the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, and after a respectful pause, a list of apparently lesser items. Roger Owen mentioned possible Egyptian
resentment of any US-backed suppression of the democracy movement as Zionist-influenced. Rami Khoury also noted Arab resentment of US support of Israel. Stephen Walt, noted critic of the Israel lobby, was invited but unavailable. Perhaps Harvard will put on a symposium on the US-Israel relationship some day.
