President Obama’s strained relationship with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will be a major issue in the coming U.S. presidential election. The Republicans will portray the Prez as not sufficiently friendly to the Netanyahu government. This makes many Democrats very nervous, since they will be forced to choose between loyalty to their party’s president or to AIPAC on the ever so sensitive Israel issue. Members of the administration, the president’s campaign and officials in the Democratic National Committee are very upset about what they view as the President’s vulnerability in regard to Israel, according to an unnamed Democratic source.
Many Democrats, who are on the whole at least as loyal to the pro-Israel lobby as their Republican opponents, are afraid that the president will cost them campaign contributions and votes because of his bad relations with Bibi. These Democrats are advising the president to back off.
By my reckoning, Obama has been backing off: he folded on the settlement freeze; he now insists that the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state; he sounds as hysterical as any Israeli official when denouncing the Palestinian UN statehood resolution; and his administration even tried to intimidate non-violent American activists from participating in the flotilla to Gaza.
George Mitchell, who was Obama’s envoy and adviser for the region, resigned months ago, apparently out of frustration with the president’s unwillingness to press Netanyahu harder on negotiating a permanent settlement with the Palestinian Authority. No new envoy has been appointed. Obama’s chief adviser now appears to be Dennis Ross. Placing Ross in charge of Israel policy indicates that Obama has lost any desire to tangle with the Israelis and their U.S. loyalists.
Still, Obama has an anti-Israel image with many politicians and voters, as so humorously expressed by the Juuu’sh mystery writer, country singer and amateur politician Kinky Friedman. (See this recent post.) I disagree completely with Kinky’s politics, but I couldn’t help but laugh when reading his statement.
How will the President react to the criticism that he is no friend of Israel? I Skyped Kinky’s half-brother James* for some help. James was adopted by a Presbyterian family at age two and spent much of his youth in France, so it is not surprising that he does not share his half-brother’s fanatic views on Israel. Like Kinky’s, his views should be taken with a grain of salt (kosher). Also, he may not be as funny as the Kinkster. These are the possibilities we came up with:
- Obama will get in touch with the “real progressive Chicago Obama,” and channel James Baker, Marwan Barghouti and Putney Swope. He will change his name to Barack Abu Shalom and impolitely pressure Netanyahu to agree to a Palestinian state on all the territory that Israel has illegally occupied since 1967. The Prez will invite Rashid Khalidi on Passover evening to the White House for falafel and hummus.
- Obama will preempt all criticism by getting the Palestinians and Israelis to sign a permanent peace treaty establishing an independent Palestinian state. The Palestinians will agree to a demilitarized state, Israeli control of all borders, and only a symbolic return of refugees to 1948 Israel. Obama will graciously decline the Nobel Peace Prize stating that he already won it and did not deserve it. Besides, Obama will humbly restate the position of peace processors and J Street that the outlines of an agreement were known for a long time. The Prez will sheepishly admit that all that was needed was the right mood. I just provided the food and smokes, a beaming Obama will say.
- Obama will reject the criticisms and vigorously defend his I/P policy. Obama will explain that his policy serves the interests of the U.S., Israel and the Palestinians. Peter Beinart will become his special envoy to the Middle East. The talks will resume. However after 2 months, negotiations will breakdown and the President and Netanyahu will blame Palestinians for the failure. Bill Clinton, Dennis Ross, Ehud Barak and Abe Foxman will be invited to the White House for schnapps and cigars.
- Obama will retreat in the face of Republican attacks and Democratic pressure. He will try to be Bushier-than-Bush on Israel. The Prez will claim that all the fuss about the Jewish state is providing him with a wonderful opportunity to return America to its Zionist roots (channeling Israeli U.S. Ambassador Michael Oren). He will invite Benjamin Netanyahu, his father Benzion, Avigdor and Joseph Leiberman (I-Ct. and IL) to a Seder at the White House. At the conclusion of the festive meal, the President will announce that he has ordered a joint U.S./Israeli military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
* James Friedman is a fictitious character who is completely the creation of the author of this article.
