Yesterday I saw a historical friend who said that Israel’s only hope is that theocracies emerge in the new Arab democracies. If that happens, Israel has another 200 years, he opined. And if secular societies emerge– as I hope– then what does the future hold? Oh, Israel as a Jewish state is finished, he said.
Well, here are two recent accounts that reflect growing Islamism in northern Africa. I have to think Israel is cheering this on. I pass this along not wearing my conspiracist’s hat, but wearing my journalistic one… Al Jazeera’s Yasmeen Ryan in Tunisia:
Women were active players in the uprising that ended the rule of Zine Abidine Ben Ali, and many hope that event will translate into a more visible role in the country’s soon-to-be democratic political life.
Yet some are worried that the rights women have enjoyed for the past five decades might soon be swept away by the tide of social conservatism that has emerged in the wake of the uprising.
Yasmine El Rashidi in Egypt for the New York Review of Books:
Despite disagreements with its younger members, the Muslim Brotherhood seems confident that it will emerge victorious in September’s parliamentary elections. In February it said it would win no more than 20 percent of the seats; it is now—officially—aiming for 50 percent. Essam el-Erian recently told me, “But of course we want a majority or the largest percent we can get.” Through a coalition agreement with other Islamist groups, Lacroix said, this “seems increasingly likely.” With its outreach programs that offer free and subsidized food and services in the poorer neighborhoods, the Brotherhood’s popularity will likely only grow—in particular as inflation rises and prices go up. “They know they are in the strongest position,” Lacroix said. It is not unusual for those who are not keen on an Islamic state modeled on Saudi or Iran to point out that, with 40 percent of the population living beneath the poverty line, the Brotherhood’s previous slogan, “Islam is the answer,” has strong appeal.
