Tony Karon at Time Magazine says there will be no attack on Iran this fall, in large measure because the Israeli military establishment said it was a crazy idea. But count on Jeffrey Goldberg to come back around in the spring and warn that Israel faces an existential threat.
Netanyahu appears to be holding out for a declaration of U.S. red lines. The New York Times reports that the Obama administration is currently debating options to placate the Israelis, even if by rhetorically repackaging a number of existing plans for military exercises and tighter sanctions. The Israeli prime minister plans to attend the U.N. General Assembly session in New York later this month, where he is expected to meet with President Obama on the sidelines.
The Israeli prime minister’s supporters will paint whatever statements and gestures emerge from the White House as a victory for his strategy of relentless saber-rattling. Netanyahu’s problem, though, is that Obama’s red line — preventing the Iranians from acquiring a nuclear weapon — is not the same as the Israeli red line, which insists that Iran can’t be allowed to maintain the nuclear infrastructure that it already has…
Many analysts have long suspected that Iran’s goal is not to build a nuclear weapon at this stage, but to achieve the sort of breakout capacity enjoyed by countries such as Japan, which remains within the terms of the Non Proliferation Treaty but has put nuclear weapons within easy reach should the government deem it necessary for reasons of national security to build them. That’s an outcome the Israelis strenuously reject, and Western powers won’t easily accept while Iran remains non-compliant with its NPT obligations. If Tehran was willing to cooperate with the IAEA and accept enhanced guarantees against weaponization, however, the Western consensus may begin to shift.
For now, the U.S. looks likely to persuade Israel to sit on its hands while sanctions and other pressures on Iran mount. Indications thus far, however, are that even if those measures succeed in pressing Iran to compromise, such compromise as are offered are unlikely to involve the capitulation on the issue of uranium enrichment that the Israelis demand. So, even if a war before November is looking increasingly unlikely, it’s probably a safe bet that war talk will be revved up again come spring.
Karon says that we can expect the Israelis to declare victory before they step back. And look, right on time, this from antiwar:
After being briefed by top US military officials, the two top Israeli leaders that have been pushing for war on Iran suggested Obama’s hardline postures and militarism in the Middle East may have eliminated the need for a preemptive Israeli strike on Iran.
Keep pushing. Contact your Reps, visit them in groups while they are at home, send them personal petitions, contact Obama. Keep pushing. No attack on Iran. No U.S. support for Israel attacking Iran. I don’t buy that the push to attack Iran is over for now. Not at all. Keep pushing, calling, petitioning.
I am n WI and I have contacted both Kind -rep and Kohl -s..
Kind wont reply after two attempts
Kohl blamed everything on Iran
so today the USA has given up its right to exist by bowing down to an alien group…that act a lot like the Go’uld of SG1
Contact your reps and tell them to stop rolling over for the Zionist Crime Family
“Contact your Reps… contact Obama”
You can’t be serious.
Who the heck do you think owns this place?
sardelapasti says: “…Who the heck do you think owns this place?”
Whoever makes the most noise.
Kathleen says: “Keep pushing. Contact your Reps…Keep pushing, calling, petitioning.”
You can, and I’ll grant that it’s a good thing to do — but the results can be irritating.
For example, the reply e-mail I got from Senator Boxer:
“Thank you for writing to express your support for tough sanctions against
Iran. I am pleased to tell you that a number of important steps have
recently been taken to pressure Iran to comply with international
obligations and halt activities associated with the development of nuclear
weapons…”
Perhaps needless to say, I hadn’t written to express my support for ‘tough sanctions against Iran.’
Hysteria?
Why not simply logg on to the OFFICIAL website of Iranian state radio?
under:
link to english.irib.ir
you could read then the official opinion of the Iranian leadership about the conflcts including with your beloved term for the Israeli governement ” Zionist regime” WITHOUT any flaw translation as it’s always the accusation of Iranian officials when quoting non Iranian documents.
And here
link to english.irib.ir
even a special folder about the conflict with the IAEA (a suborganisation of the real any other than pro-Israeli minded UNO!!).
Once again: IRIB is the public Iranian state radio which only expresses the official opinion of its leaders!
Really can it be more simplier?
mthunlan September 7, 2012 at 11:01 am
So, what is the essential difference between these two statements?
And who said Israel’s actions constitute…
mthunlan September 7, 2012 at 11:01 am
As for the IAEA. Israel is a member and although it doesn’t fully support the IAEA by signing the NPT as Iran has, Israel still receives the benefits of the IAEA and like Pakistan, Russia, the US, India, Israel has nukies!
Seems like the neocons are quiet right now on Iran. What is up? Just heard on the Diane Rehm show that Canada is closing their embassy in Tehran. What’s up?
On Monday the Rehm show will have two Israeli’s on with opposing views on Iran. Send in your questions, call, email, facebook. Ask Diane and her team when they will do a whole hour on ever expanding Israeli illegal settlements. Been a long long time. In fact I don’t think her show has ever devoted a whole hour to the illegal settlement issue.
The Rehm show has been allowing the Iran war drums and go get Assad war drums to be beat on her show…unchallenged
“Ask Diane and her team when they will do a whole hour on ever expanding Israeli illegal settlements.”
Kathleen, the settlements are only the fourth-largest Jewish community in the world. Wouldn’t it look like philo-semitism if the show paid that much attention to what is only the fourth largest community of Jews? It’s not as if the three largest ones don’t get their share of coverage.
That’s about the most insipidly stupid comment I’ve read in a while. Israel is is a Jewish state with half the worlds Jews living there. Settlements aren’t just one city!
121 officially-recognised settlements in the West Bank, 192,000 Israelis live in settlements in East Jerusalem and over 20,000 live in settlements in the Golan Heights. Settlements range in character from farming communities and frontier villages to urban suburbs and neighborhoods. The three largest settlements, Modi’in Illit, Maale Adumim and Betar Illit, have achieved city status, with over 30,000 residents each.
so during the Rehm international hour Diane allowed James Kitfield to repeat the debunked translation that the Iranian President said they want to “wipe Israel off the map” Diane did not challenge at all just allowed him to repeat the falsehood. This is not the first time she has done this.
But it gets worse. CNN Elise Labott repeated at least 2 times that the IAEA has said that Iran is developing NUCLEAR WEAPONS. NUCLEAR WEAPONS Yep she said that and Diane did not challenge at all. The Rehm show has been complicit for years in the demonization of Iran based on unsubstantiated claims about Iran. Helping build the stage for an accepted attack. Hope folks will go listen and contact the Rehm show and let them know what you think about their warmongering
Why would we have thought that the MSM (Diane Rehm) and journalist from CNN, MSNBC etc would be asking the tough questions about claims being repeated about Iran. I mean many of them were not only complicit in the run up to the immoral and illegal invasion of Iraq they repeated the lies at times themselves. They were complicit in many ways. Responsible in some ways for the deaths, injuries and deaths in Iraq. But over the last 8 or so years many of these outlets not only allow their alleged experts on their programs to repeat false and dangerous claims about Iran they( Rachel Maddow, Terri Gross) repeat the lies themselves. Well today we have one more example of Diane Rehm going along with dangerous falsehoods about Iran and no challenges…nothing. It is so discouraging. Same old song and dance. Diane allowed James Kitfield and especially CNN’s Elaine Labott (you have to listen to her accusatory and matter of fact tone) when she says that Iran has nuclear weapons. Just flat out lied and Diane Rehm just went on as if this is just the accepted conclusion about Iran. So irresponsible. So dangerous
Surprise! Barak has now suddenly come out against military action:
Barak now opposes Israeli strike on Iran, sources say
Like I said, mind games.
It’s become increasingly clear – from the statements of members of the Israel military/security establishment, as well as clear refusals from members of the US military, leaks to the media intended to counter Israeli government propaganda – that this just isn’t going to happen right now. In any event, without the US cooperating, Israel won’t and can’t do it; if they do, they’re just totally off their rockers, and we’re in a lot more trouble than we thought.
Ah, Mayor “Ehud” Quimby: “Very well, if that is the way the winds are blowing, let no one say I don’t also blow.”
Still, for all the fact that the danger of war is receeding, there is one more danger point coming up. In the next week or two, the number of US carriers in the region will rise to 3 as the USS Stennis cycles in. The US will also be conducting major war games in the Gulf to simulate mine hunting with a number of other nations. Israel has moved an Iron Dome battery to Tel Aviv. And Canada has bafflingly suddenly decided to flee the scene entirely. Small items (except the 3rd carrier), but combined they do represent an increased risk of war for the next two weeks.
Bill M, as the economic outlook, employment picture and price of gas in America goes, so goes the outlook on war on Iran. And right now there’s a Presidential election.
The Stennis will be relieving the CVN-65 Enterprise, apparently, so I honestly don’t think this means much. There were also reports earlier this year of the new Joint Special Operations Task Force-Gulf Cooperation Council operating in the Gulf, but it has more to do with training the various GCC militaries. They’ve been showing their muscle to deter any Iranian threats to close the Strait, but probably have some contingency plans too.
They are just playing poker and the stakes are huge as Israel will never give up its intention of being the only super bully in the ME.
We destroyed Iraq, the most important enemy of the zionists, Syria is in a shute going down fast, that leaves Iran as a major obstacle.
Turkey is the key and according to the events of the last few weeks they were bought by the western interests. I wonder what did they get for their cooperation against Syria?
I wouldn’t be too quick to rule out an October surprise. Rhetoric aside, none of the fundamentals has changed. There is an overwhelming military force in place, with massive joint military ‘exercises’ scheduled for September.
link to counterpunch.org
I think there will be a strike before the end of the year although the massive exercise has been greatly reduced.
NCINA- “…the massive exercise has been greatly reduced.”
The joint US/Israel exercise has been reduced. This is something else and I am not aware of any changes.
you’re not aware of it keith because it’s just an allegation. ncin is pretending like he knows what’s coming down the pike and letting it slip it was originally a much bigger ‘exercise’ (if that’s the new lingo for attacking a country). there’s been nothing written about this. if he can confirm it i’d be surprised. unless he’s referencing some jeffrey goldberg claim.