What is the role of the Israeli government in American political life? Well, apparently we must defer to Netanyahu. “To Attack of Not to Attack” is by Zaki Shalom, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, Tel Aviv University, writing in a journal of the French Institute for International Relations. Breathtaking. Boldface is mine:
We must take into account that the Prime Minister is raising the bar for threats toward Iran, inter alia, because he recognizes that the current US administration is seeking to prevent an Israeli action before the elections at any price. It would probably be no exaggeration to say that the prime minister is going around with the feeling that the political future of President Obama is to some extent, perhaps even a large extent, in the Prime Minister’s hands. An Israeli action at the present time would almost certainly expose the president to serious criticism for his fecklessness, which forced Israel, a close ally of the United States, to act alone. Various segments in the US administration, especially the Congress, will make demands to support Israel.
All this, when the consequences of an Israeli action for the stagnant US economy are liable to be serious. Under these circumstances, it is not inconceivable that the Prime Minister believes that currently, he can “squeeze” from the president far-reaching commitments in Israel’s favor in exchange for Israeli restraint on Iran. This compensation will presumably be mainly in the areas of defense and the economy. Israel, the prime minister can argue, is prepared to take a strategic risk on the Iranian issue, if it knows that the US administration will support it and will be prepared to give it aid that under normal circumstances, it would not be prepared to give…The Prime Minister can assume that an Israeli attack prior to the November 2012 elections will make it very difficult for the Obama administration to criticize Israel openly. He can assume with near certainty that as soon as the attack begins, members of Congress, the media, Jewish leaders, and Republican Party leaders will issue statements supporting Israel and even demand that the administration back Israel and defend it. The Obama administration cannot ignore such expressions of support in the period leading up to the elections.
Bruce Wolman, who tipped me off to this article, adds:
It’s a win-win for Netanyahu. If he is not serious about attacking Iran, he still gets the max from the USA with his blackmailing. If he is serious, he puts Obama in a box such that he has to rescue the IDF. Netanyahu doesn’t even have to decide between the two until the day of the election. He can just keep us all guessing. (However, I can’t believe our $300B intelligence services don’t know whether Israel is serious or not.)
I disagree that Obama has no choice. He could take on Netanyahu and AIPAC and win. Why? The military has his back on this one. But Obama is not such a risk taker. He is a campaign machine, nothing more. If he has an ideology, it is moderate Republican economic values. If he faced Netanyahu head on, a lot of non-Jewish Americans would support him. There is war fatigue in this country and in the military. But the longer he waits, the more trapped Netanyahu has him.
If Obama had led on this issue, he could have used it to his political advantage. Obama could easily parry the statements of Republican leaders, and he is not going to get the Christian Zionists to vote for him anyhow. Even many Jews do not want us to go to war with Iran. But Obama won’t take this risk, because he doesn’t want to upset his Jewish donors.
Netanyahu traps him with each passing day because the U.S. administration keeps validating Israel’s talking points in an effort to appease the Israeli government. That makes it harder for Obama to reverse the rhetoric and not look opportunistic.
I’m old enough to remember a time when that position would be considered absurd. That time was 3 days ago, when conventional wisdom held that Obama had called Bibi’s bluff and forced him to back down. I can’t think what’s changed in the last couple days…
“a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies”
An impartial fellow? I doubt it when he works where he does. So why should anybody pay any attention to this?
“It would probably be no exaggeration to say that the prime minister is going around with the feeling that the political future of President Obama is to some extent, perhaps even a large extent, in the Prime Minister’s hands.”
Luttwak( Was with JINSA and was with US adminsitations at different times ) wrote a book – Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook by Edward N. Luttwak in 1968. It seems his plans have borne fruit. US is now run by inetrconnected interest groups with Israel at the top of that interest groups.
That argument is old nonsense.
Bibi isn’t going to attack pre-election simply because that’s what the Israeli press(who have been given marching orders by the IDF and the security establishment) have been printing for weeks like madmen.
Of course, they’ve been publishing one breathless story after another of an ‘imminent attack’ for years now.
Israel’s record is very clear: never, ever give warning. Operation Cast Lead is a good example of that principle.
The Iraq strike in the 1980s or the Syrian strike in 2007 follow the same principle – again.
Second, Israel can’t strike alone on Iran. It cannot.
It doesn’t have the military power necessary, new bombs or not.
Part of the reason is because an Iranian operation, as I keep repeating, is not just a bombstrike.
People need to understand this.
An Iranian operation means that you need to secure the Strait of Hormuz stright away. No Navy can do this except the U.S. navy. Israel is a tiny gnat as a naval power.
America would have to become involved and the notion that Israel would gamble everything just to drag the U.S. into war is ridicolous. If they attack Iran, the world economy is crashing already. Why would Obama help them on that issue since he’ll lose the election anyway? It doesn’t make any sense. What pressure does he have?
It’s all over for him anyway.
Third, this goes beyond party politics.
If Israel went rogue like that, the entire American military/intelligence/defence establishment would go from lukewarm to icecold towards Israel. They’ll leak stories all day, every day for a very, very long time ahead to sabotage Israel’s plans constantly and work overtime to distance themselves. A president can shuffle a few chairs, but he cannot replace an entire cadre of tens of thousands each with multi-decade careers.
If Israel attacks, it will not be warned in the media or in academia.
And it will be tightly correlated with the U.S. before the attack, which is exactly why a strike hasn’t happened. Because the U.S. hasn’t been willing so Bibi is a sitting duck.
That’s why Bibi wants Romney because behind Romney you find Senor, Kristol, Adelson and the others behind the throne.
Until Bibi gets the green light from the U.S. he will not do anything.
He hates being in that positions but he cannot change it.
Israel didn’t seek approval of the U.S. in the early 80s or the late 00s.
It wouldn’t in this case either if it had that option – but it doesn’t – which is why you see so much hysteria in the Israeli press.
Any concessions “squeezed” out of Obama will not impact Bibi’s decision on going to war with Iran simply because these concessions don’t change the calculus on attacking Iran.
Further, I don’t believe the recent leaks re pushback are material evidence the US will refrain from promptly joining Israel’s attack. Perhaps it is evidence we don’t want to join the attack but getting people that don’t want to do something to do it is one of the classic displays of “power.”
Israel will attack Iran if Netanyahu believes it is in Israel’s interest. Since it is clear the maximum leverage is prior to the US election, he will not postpone the decision.
Netanyahu’s current concern is that the degree to which discussion now could have adverse effects on Israel’s relations with the US subsequent to an Iran attack. Especially if the war becomes protracted and ugly. This is why Netanyahu is ticked at his cabinet’s leaks.