Reality check– John Kerry prepares to stick fork in two-state solution

Israel/Palestine
on 48 Comments

This is a great story that’s ricocheting around the Middle East and Foggy Bottom too: John Kerry is saying that the two-state solution will die within two years. He surely knows it’s dead now, because his State Department will do nothing to end the settlement project, and he is preparing the west to move on to a new paradigm. Bad news for the Israelis, who have gotten to have their cake and eat it too.

The Guardian’s Harriet Sherwood reports (thanks to commenter Mikeo):

The high-level acknowledgement that the prospects of a “two-state solution” to the 65-year conflict are rapidly diminishing came in evidence to the House of Representatives foreign affairs committee on Wednesday.

“I believe the window for a two-state solution is shutting,” the secretary of state said. “I think we have some period of time – a year to year-and-a-half to two years, or it’s over.”

He added: “Everybody I talk to in the region and all of the supporters globally who care … want us to move forward on a peace effort. They’re all worried about the timing here. So there’s an urgency to this, in my mind, and I intend, on behalf of the president’s instructions, to honour that urgency and see what we can do to move forward.”

The two sides have not met for more than two-and-a-half years, and there have been no substantial peace talks since 2008.

Israelis don’t like this– to have the figleaf of the two-state solution ripped away. The Telegraph reports:

“I would be very cautious before making any such prediction. No one in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya saw the Arab Spring coming. Who knows what will happen in the Middle East in the next two years,” said one high-ranking Israeli official.

“[Kerry] has shown good will and commitment. But when it comes to the heart of the matter he has no bright ideas and yet is insisting we start from scratch, scrapping everything that was achieved by his predecessors. For those of us who have seen this all before, it is frustrating.”

Recall that in December, Elliott Abrams, who spent years maintaining the figleaf for Israel as it devoured the West Bank, ripped Jodi Rudoren of the Times for suggesting that construction in E-1 would finish the two-state solution, and to her credit, Rudoren took him on:

The essence of what our E1 story said was correct: that building there is seen by palestinians, peace advocates and diplomats worldwide as the death knell of the two state solution, because it prevents meaningful contiguity in the West Bank and easy access to the heart of East Jerusalem. (The Israelis also understand this; it’s precisely why this area was chosen at this time.)

By the way, even J Street has hinted that 2013 is make or break for the two-state solution. So maybe Washington is waking up.

Reality check. Jeff Halper of ICAHD long ago stated that the possibility of establishing a real Palestinian state on the West Bank was finished. Lately he wrote:

Let’s say it clearly and categorically: the two-state solution is dead. If the possibility ever genuinely existed – a subject historians are welcome to debate – it is gone as a political option. We should even stop talking about it because constant reference to an irrelevant “solution” only confuses the discussion.  

How do we get to such an unequivocal pronouncement? Well, it only takes a little digging into the positions behind the official words and the ability to decipher the “codes” in which the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is couched to arrive at the unsurprising and straightforward conclusion that Israel has no intention of allowing a viable and truly sovereign Palestinian state to emerge even on the 22% of historic Palestine that is the Occupied Territory. But Israel does not rely solely on its political opposition to a “genuine” two-state solution – that is, one on which a Palestinian state arises on all the territory occupied in 1967, even if that is desired and the refugee issue can be somehow finessed – to carry the day. It has laid over the Occupied Territory a matrix of control anchored in its all-encompassing settlement project to effectively foreclose that option. Finally, Israel relies in Europe, but even more so on the United States, to fend off any international initiatives that might result in a two-state solution.

48 Responses

  1. mikeo
    April 19, 2013, 11:38 am

    Wow my first hat tip on the interwebs! :)

  2. a blah chick
    April 19, 2013, 11:45 am

    The present situation (Israel in control of the land and its resources; the PA in control of the surplus Arab bodies) IS their vision of the two state solution. What we have in place there now is the best that anyone can hope for out of Israel. They like the status quo fine. But they have to keep the rest of the world believing that they are still on board towards a solution in order to keep the pressure off, like the BDS movement.

    The BDS movement will only get stronger because the government of Israel is showing more and more each day that they are not sincere partners for a settlement.

    • Citizen
      April 19, 2013, 12:46 pm

      @ a blah chick
      There was a recent poll of Israeli Jews. The result, if memory serves, is that a composite of Greater Israeli types and status quo types amounting to approximately one-third of those polled–favored continued occupation and no stop to land-grabbing via settlement expansion. I don’t recall what the others polled expressed. Anybody know?

      • sydnestel
        April 19, 2013, 3:42 pm

        Yes

        61 % of Israeli Jews say they want a 2 state solution.

        On another question:
        7% wanted one state with Jews and Palestinians as equals
        23% wanted one state without giving Palestinians citizenship (aka apartheid)
        13% wanted the status quo (aka defacto apartheid)
        57% wanted a 2 state solution along the line of the current barrier

        see: link to 972mag.com

      • Dutch
        April 19, 2013, 5:08 pm

        Poll: 23% of Jewish Israelis support apartheid, 13% support status quo

        link to 972mag.com

    • ryan-o
      April 19, 2013, 2:42 pm

      Agreed. That’s how Israeli leaders see it: Area A is the Palestinian state(s). They want Palestinians to make it official. That is, to make the separation wall, the settlements, the Israeli security forces, check points, etc. all legal. Israel has spent too much time and money into construction activities alone to be taken seriously. Not just the settlements but also the wall and the roads. The various “security” deployments and infrastructure meant to control their resources while isolating Area A and Gaza. All of these things add up to a non-viable Palestinian state. Israel was never serious about a viable Palestinian state and they never will be.

      If the Palestinians do not accept such a “generous offer” than, according to Israel, they don’t want peace.

  3. Nevada Ned
    April 19, 2013, 11:45 am

    So the two state solution is dead. What next? The one state solution?
    Rashid Khalidi says, “the one state solution is what we have now!”

    So maybe the Palestinians should issue a public renounciation of their hope for a separate Palestinian state, and instead demand equal rights for all within a single nonracist state.

    Israeli Jews are strongly opposed to equal rights. In fact they are even more opposed to racial equality than they are to a separate Palestinian state. The opposition comes not just from a handful of leaders, but from nearly all Israeli Jews, even including Uri Avnery, prominent antiwar campaigner.

    • ToivoS
      April 19, 2013, 7:16 pm

      Uri Avnery is opposed to the one-state solution because it means the end of Israel as a Jewish state. I can’t disagree with him on this point. He is after all a Zionist. He fully realizes that the apartheid solution will not work in the long term. It is the average Israeli that believes apartheid is a viable solution.

      • pabelmont
        April 20, 2013, 7:34 am

        All recent Israeli governments have “believed in” (you know, not said they desire, but acted in order to create) the present apartheid 1SS arrangement. Now if the PA just erases itself (say the PLO moves back to Tunis and does all Palestinian UN work and other diplomacy), and the PLO says it wants a 2SS on the 1950-1966 “green line”, the fat will be in the fire. However — and this is a big one — the nations have been playing the role of the ethically anesthetized for so long that they would probably merely blame the PLO for makig unreasonable demands, or for not negotiating in good faith, or some such, and close their eyes to the apartheid.

        BDS ain’t much but it’s all we’ve got.

      • Erasmus
        April 20, 2013, 7:56 am

        Re Toivos : ” Uri Avnery is opposed to the one-state solution because it means the end of Israel as a Jewish state. …”

        In all fairness to Uri Avnery, Toivos, this is a misrepresentation of Avnery’s position.
        He argues for a 2SS above all for practical reasons; his main argument is that – for the time being – no other alternative would be agreeable to the vast majority of Israeli Jews. At the same time he leaves the mid-to long-term future relationship of both States open, with a clear preference of an ever increasing process of regional cooperation in the Near East.
        With respect to the “Jewish State” he has never argued for this. In the contrary. He mercilessly has highlighted the principal incompatibility of “Jewish” and “democratic”. The one excludes the other. And his leanings are beyond doubt: he is a unrelenting democrat.
        That at least has been my understanding of his argumentation.

        If there is some soft pedalling of Uri Avnery – that is in his position vis-a-vis BDS. He opposes with imho fairly weak and twisting arguments an outright and general boycott of Israel. He keeps fairly mum on the subject since and aslong as the Anti-Boycott Law passed by the Knesset threatens anybody promoting Israel boycott with heavy fines. The matter is before the Supreme Court – and the SC is dragging its feet ….. as is usual and symptomatic for Israeli judicuary.

  4. K Renner
    April 19, 2013, 11:50 am

    The western “two state solution”- an Israel universally accepted as “jewish” and a de-militarized Palestinian entity that “must” give right of way to Israeli infiltration/is not allowed to defend itself against Israeli harassment is a filthy idea anyhow.

  5. amigo
    April 19, 2013, 11:57 am

    Two State Solution???.

    That was a dead prospect when Israel rejected the UN Partition plan less than twenty four hours after signing it.

    “Menachem Begin, the commander of the Irgun gang and Israel’s future Prime Minister between 1977-1983, proclaimed: “The Partition of Palestine is illegal. It will never be recognized …. Jerusalem was and will for ever be our capital. Eretz Israel will be restored to the people of Israel. All of it. And for Ever.” (Iron Wall p. 25) *”

    That there will be no 2SS is of no surprise to me.I have been stating this fact for 10 plus years.

    • talknic
      April 20, 2013, 4:03 am

      ” Israel rejected the UN Partition plan less than twenty four hours after signing it”

      The Provisional Government of the State of Israel said otherwise on numerous occasions

      The Jewish People’s Council and the Zionist Movement finally accepted the UNGA res 181 partition plan. It’s still enshrined in the Declaration of the Establishment of the State of Israel – link to mfa.gov.il – effective 00:01 May 15th 1948 (ME time) – link to trumanlibrary.org

      22nd May 1948 link to unispal.un.org

  6. Ramzi Jaber
    April 19, 2013, 12:02 pm

    The 2SS had actually died soon after the 1967 war when some zionist politicians started to talk about keeping the spoils of victory and resurrected the dream (nightmare, actually) of Greater Israel. For those of you who might remember, the zionist victory in the 6-day war was a big surprise to the israeli military and politicians. No one, not even them, imagined such a bungled and unprofessional and lousy action or lack of from the Arabs during that war. And so it began the idea of keeping the WB, propagated by a few die-hard extreme zionists, winning the argument against the majority who truly wanted to return the WB and sign a peace treaty.

    Fast forward to 2013, indeed 1SS is dead; it has been dead for over a generation now. It’s courageous of Kerry to state what he stated, but to say it WILL be dead in 2 years misses his historic opportunity to achieve peace under a new formula, the only stable one that can work, which is 1S1P1V – one state, one people, one vote. After all, that is the foundation of the US republic, the beacon of democracy, that is in its third century. It’s gotta be the right way then, isn’t it?

    • Citizen
      April 19, 2013, 12:59 pm

      @ Ramzi Jaber

      The speedy Israeli victory in ’67, from what I have read, was the result of Nassar taking to heart the advice of both the USSR and USA not to be the initial aggressor, not to indulge in preemptive or preventive war. Hence the Egyptian air force was destroyed on the ground by the Israeli air force in the earliest phase of that war. Also, Johnson gave Israel use of 4 US planes and their US crews that were state of the art in intelligence gathering, and thus they spotted Egyptian Army moving at night after Egypt’s air force was destroyed. And Israel was thus enabled to destroy the Egyptian ground forces. It’s important; otherwise one might merely absorb the propaganda, as most do, that Israel was fighting a defensive war, not a war of opportunity in ’67, and that Israel fought off a much stronger Arab force motivated by the gentile disease, anti-Semitism.

      I won’t mention the analogy with how reality conflicts with the official story of how Jews fought Arabs in ’48 with the Jews being little David, and the Arabs being Goliath. Facts show the Jews had a much more powerful military force back then than the Arabs.

      • Ramzi Jaber
        April 19, 2013, 7:55 pm

        Citizen, you’re absolutely right about Nasser/Egypt and the fact that the 6-day war was started by the zionists, contrary to popular belief. However, it was a different story in the WB. Two things from what I remember of that war as I lived through it:

        1) The Jordanian forces (with some token soldiers from other countries like Iraq) didn’t put up much of a fight, as if they were told by their superiors NOT to fight.

        2) Those Jordanian soldiers who were sill manning their artillery posts, kept pounding their artillery guns day and night for a few days. But then when the war ended and we went to walk through Jerusalem where the artillery was supposed to have been pounding for days, we didn’t see hardly any damage. It was as if the ammunition given to these soldiers was duds!!

        This was rather odd and I still cannot find a reasonable explanation for it only to say that the Jordanian regime led by the CIA agent King Hussein has duped his soldiers since he didn’t want to defend the WB.

        So all in all, it sure was a surprise on many fronts, at least to us Palestinians who witnessed the so-called zionist victory in the 6-day war, it was not much of a war let me tell you.

    • Sibiriak
      April 20, 2013, 4:57 am

      Ramzi Jaber:

      … indeed 1SS is dead

      Indeed. If you list all the fundamental forces that make a 2SS impossible, its obvious that those same forces make a 1SS even more impossible.

    • Ramzi Jaber
      April 20, 2013, 10:46 am

      Correction: I meant to say “indeed 2SS is dead”, not “indeed 1SS is dead”.

      Sibiriak, the 1SS is a 1S1P1V democratic approach that brings with it its own forces that are different than the forces at play with the 2SS. The most fundamental new forces are that both parties will have the entire land and will both play by the same rules as equals in a democracy. Under the 1S1P1V premise, Christians, Moslems, and Jews will find peace and security to be an interdependent goal that will also bring economic prosperity along with it. That is fundamentally different than the 2SS.

  7. Citizen
    April 19, 2013, 12:36 pm

    Kerry: “We will get nowhere if we can’t get Israel to stop those settlements. Americans don’t know it, but the rest of the world does.”

    Obama: ” I can’t move on that. If I tried to, they would all stick a fork in what I am trying to get accomplished domestically before I leave office. Remember my speech in Cairo? I’m not even mentioning any hard lucrative row to hoe with books and speaking engagements after I leave office.”

    Kerry: ” Well, Ike didn’t have a problem with pulling Israel back from the precipice. He hauled Israel in, remember?”

    Obama: “Different time. I’m not a WW2 general who defeated Hitler and Tojo. And that was before Israel took that extra land…”

    Kerry: “But look at how much money and UN cover we give Israel. ”

    Obama: “I can’t take the risk of threatening sticks, not just giving carrots. I’m giving Israel another $40 Billion atop Bush Jr’s $30 Billion, as you know. Look at all the bills in Congress enmeshing us more in Israeli politics, putting the US on the line for Israel. The only totally bipartisan poker chip or hole card I have to use is Israel’s security. That’s a better poker card than me having a black dad when it comes to accomplishing what I most desire for this country. ”

    Kerry: “Well, it’s your decision. I tried to become POTUS and failed. I’m just saying, can’t we get any really honcho influencer of public opinion here in America to push for Israel to stop those fucking settlements? I’m not even talking about Israel getting rid of all the ones they have–just stopping it while we bring them to the peace table?”

  8. American
    April 19, 2013, 1:12 pm

    Kerry appears to be giving Israel time to finish the job.
    Useless.
    ICC,ICC,ICC……

    • Hostage
      April 19, 2013, 2:49 pm

      Israeli and Palestinian sources told Haaretz that President Abbas had agreed to delay taking further actions through the ICC for 8 weeks, while Washington tries to jump-start peace talks. That agreement doesn’t even apply to construction in E1.

      Abbas won’t resume talks unless Israel stops construction in the occupied territory and complies with the Quartet demand that its negotiators provide a map of the borders that Israel is proposing. The Palestinians obviously can’t be asked to recognize “Israels borders and territorial integrity” if the Israelis themselves don’t even have a map.

    • Citizen
      April 19, 2013, 2:58 pm

      @ American
      Yep. Kerry says the window is short for any 2 state solution, but he’s not advocating any US stance against continued Israeli settlements. This says everything.

  9. MHughes976
    April 19, 2013, 1:17 pm

    ‘We have two years to bring on the 2SS’ may rank beside ‘Iran will have nukes in 12 months’ as a thing to be said every so often, somewhere between every two years and every two weeks, as a way of indicating that the speaker really means business. Honestly, you know, he’s going to do something.

  10. American
    April 19, 2013, 1:20 pm

    BDS this…..shut Israel down.

    U.S. to Sell Israel Fuel Valued Around $2.7 Billion
    Apr 18th 2013 10:42AM
    Wednesday was a busy day for the U.S. Defense Security Cooperation Agency, the outfit responsible for coordinating military sales contracts between the U.S. and its allies and getting Congress’s “OK” on such sales before they can proceed. DSCA notified Congress of no fewer than five such upcoming “foreign military sales” contracts Wednesday. But the biggest contract on its list wasn’t for “arms sales” at all.

    It was for gasoline [link opens in PDF].

    To be precise, it was for JP-8 aviation fuel, diesel, and gasoline — 864 million gallons of the stuff worth $2.67 billion in aggregate — which the Government of Israel has requested that the U.S. sell to it to keep its military humming. As DSCA explained in its notification to Congress: “The proposed sale of the JP-8 aviation fuel will enable Israel to maintain the operational capability of its aircraft. The diesel fuel and unleaded gasoline will be used for Israeli ground vehicles.”

    DSCA says it does not yet know which company or companies would supply the fuel to Israel. A competitive bid process for the supply sources is expected to be held (assuming the sale is permitted to proceed). However, in past sales of such large fuel stocks — JP-8 in particular — ExxonMobil has been said to serve as Israel’s supplier.”

    • Sumud
      April 19, 2013, 5:56 pm

      If this is anything like the fuel the US has “sold” to Israel in the past, the bill never arrives as the fuel is given to Israel FREE:

      From 2009:
      According to documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act, between 2004 and 2007 the U.S. Defense Department gave $818 million worth of fuel to the Israeli military. The total amount was 479 million gallons, the equivalent of about 66 gallons per Israeli citizen. In 2008, an additional $280 million in fuel was given to the Israeli military, again at U.S. taxpayers’ expense. The U.S. has even paid the cost of shipping the fuel from U.S. refineries to ports in Israel.
      Gaza invasion: Powered by the U.S.

      If you recall there was speculation in 2010 that Israel was preparing an attack on Iran or Lebanon after they placed what was at the time, a very large fuel “order” for 444 million gallons of fuel:

      Israel completes preparations for an attack against Iran

      So this new request for fuel is for 864 million gallons! From the first Salon link Israel requested 479 million gallons of fuel from 2004-2007 – and now in one hit they want 864 million gallons – what are they doing with it all? Stockpiling, or are are they running that many drones, or …?

      Or is it just they used to pay for their own fuel but have now discovered they can have the US do it, so are now requesting more and More and MORE?

      This might be something a motivated young reporter like Alex Kane could investigate (hint). I found the original article you were quoting American:

      link to fool.com

      …and read the linked PDF press release but there is no mention of how or when Israel will pay for the fuel. The Salon article outlines the program under which fuel has previously been gifted to Israel.

      • American
        April 20, 2013, 11:31 am

        @ Sumud

        Thanks for filling in additional info and a link…….thought lsr had gotten fuel for free before but couldn’t remember what pentagon program it was under….

  11. rensanceman
    April 19, 2013, 1:26 pm

    The Likkud’s by laws states its opposition to a two-state arrangement which lays bare the perverse hypocrisy that regularly emanates from the mouth’s of Zionist and their legions.

  12. ryan-o
    April 19, 2013, 2:04 pm

    It’s for the best that the two state solution officially dies. On one hand, because the international community and many international laws/policies/UN resolutions are tied to supporting it, it is still the only “realistic” avenue that Palestine is officially allowed to pursue. Unfortunately it’s already dead. Israel killed it and as long as the international community and the US especially pretend it is alive, it only supports extending the status quo.

    When the 2SS is officially dead, that doesn’t mean the door is shut on Palestine. There is still the 1SS option which Israel despises because there are only two 1S scenarios. The first one is making their Apartheid official which won’t go over well internationally. Even the US might have to say something (maybe). The second is a non-Jewish democratic state where non-Jews are a demographic majority.

    They might as well go with the latter. With the number of people emigrating from Israel and the higher birthrate among Israel Arabs, Israel will demographically be finished in time regardless. Might be a few decades, but it will happen. Unless there is an immigration boom (unlikely), an increase in birthrate, or they put a limit on non-Jewish births or even start sterilizing them (or stripping their citizenship which they already do in some cases).

    The only way for a Jewish state of Israel to survive is if Israel sucks it up and accepts the 2SS which they will never do. They would rather hold on to the occupied territory and eventually be demographically flipped into a non-Jewish democracy then have their own democratic Jewish state. Seems crazy

    • Citizen
      April 19, 2013, 3:30 pm

      @ ryan-o

      So, you think the Western powers should start getting serious about Israel’s nuke bombs? Considering the Zionist mindset re all goys are born afflicted with the disease of anti-semitism combined with the Samson Option?

    • W.Jones
      April 19, 2013, 5:37 pm

      Ryan,

      If someone who believes in bullemia keeps getting fed, so they can keep eating, why should they stop, just because of a few naysayers?

    • Sumud
      April 19, 2013, 6:09 pm

      The only way for a Jewish state of Israel to survive is if Israel sucks it up and accepts the 2SS which they will never do. They would rather hold on to the occupied territory and eventually be demographically flipped into a non-Jewish democracy then have their own democratic Jewish state. Seems crazy

      It is greed, and hubris – they thought they could get away with the settlements but they made a gargantuan strategic error, because they can’t be reversed – and that means the end of Israel eventually.

    • RoHa
      April 20, 2013, 12:54 am

      “there are only two 1S scenarios. The first one is making their Apartheid official which won’t go over well internationally. Even the US might have to say something (maybe). The second is a non-Jewish democratic state where non-Jews are a demographic majority.”

      No, there is a third. Israel exterminates or expels the vast majority of the Palestinians. Result: a Jewish state with no apartheid.

      • Ramzi Jaber
        April 20, 2013, 5:28 pm

        RoHa, you’re right about the expulsion plan. This has ALWAYS been the zionist plan since they illegaly started colonizing Palestine. My grandparents would tell us stories about what happened in 1948 where the “helpless and pitiful” zionists where attacked by the “mighty and powerful” Arabs.

        What really happened is that the zionists were the well-armed party and the murderous and ruthless party (the Arabs only got emotional and talked), demolishing and totally raising all evidence of almost 500 Palestinian towns and villages, rendering the indigenous and rightful owners refugees throughout the region.

        I have seen the zionist expulsion plan in action myself first-hand in 1967 where the zionist army would instill fear into the Palestinian population, broadcasting to us and dropping flyers saying that we will die if we don’t flee. My uncles and aunts packed up and where about to leave. My father said this happened to us once already in 1948 and we are not going to allow it to happen again in 1967. We will not leave. We will stay and die here if we must.

        My father’s very courageous stand ensured that our entire family stayed. Fortunately, we kept a low profile, hiding in the basement for what felt like an eternity. We escaped becoming refugees again or dying, but we endured the total humiliation of zionist military occupation and oppression since then. One might argue this was not a much better outcome than becoming refugees, both robbed of basic human dignity and freedom.

        The zionist regime is still waiting to execute the next phase of the expulsion plan, as was the case when sharon tried about a decade ago but didn’t work then. That does not mean they will stop trying. The criminal lieberman has stated that all Palestinians in 1948 israel must be re-distributed back to the land under the PA to ensure that jews dominate israel. The ultimate racist, just imagine if someone said they wanted to do that to the jews?????

  13. Hostage
    April 19, 2013, 2:10 pm

    Reality check– John Kerry prepares to stick fork in two-state solution

    Not at all. UN Ambassador Susan Rice has long-since put a fork in the Quartet Road Map. It obliged Israel to stop settlement construction and to remove the outposts. But more importantly, it obliged the members of the Middle East Quartet to recognize the Palestinian State and promote its membership in the UN as a Phase II obligation pending a final, Phase III settlement.

    As a result, the Security Council hasn’t even fulfilled its own obligations under the terms of its own resolution 1515, the ICJ Advisory Opinion, and international law.

    Israelis don’t like this . . . when it comes to the heart of the matter he has no bright ideas and yet is insisting we start from scratch, scrapping everything that was achieved by his predecessors.

    That has been, and still is Netanyahus officially stated position. He has refused to accept the Quartet Road Map, Annapolis, etc. as the basis of negotiations. Kerry’s testimony contained the same old same old Nuthunyahu talking points: a demilitarized Palestinian state versus an Israel that must be capable of defending itself, by itself (i.e. no international intervention or peacekeepers).

    It has laid over the Occupied Territory a matrix of control anchored in its all-encompassing settlement project to effectively foreclose that option.

    Halper advances the doubtful proposition that a Jewish minority settler population can exercise “a matrix of control” indefinitely over a much larger number of Palestinians without stirring-up any international blow back or intervention. If that were likely, then its hard to see why the US, Israel, and the Zionists are running around in such a panic over Israel’s isolation and its delegitimization.

    The fact is that the international community already declared the one state solution graveyard dead. That happened after a 25 year-long experiment to establish a Judeo-Arab Commonwealth in the Mandated State of Palestine. It only resulted in internecine war.

    The UN recommended a peaceful solution that involved a partition, international supervision, and a regional Economic Union. But that too has only resulted in intransigence and a prolonged international armed conflict. Under those circumstances the US and others were allowed to mediate a series of private negotiations for a peaceful settlement. After some initial successes with Egypt and Jordan, the Oslo/Quartet efforts have gone nowhere for 20 years. Its very unlikely that Israel or the US will be given a blank check for more than a few more months, much less a few years, before international support for an imposed or arbitrated solution becomes insurmountable.

    • W.Jones
      April 19, 2013, 5:45 pm

      Hostage,

      Tally the Balance of Forces. If America’s media, its establishment, and a big part of the population strongly support it, what’s to stop it? If the US got weak, what’s to keep them from “switching sides” again? I have in mind that in 1948 they were supplied by the Eastern Bloc to resist the British. But once they kicked out the British, they allied with the British instead, because they were not interested in being under the Soviets. But the Soviets were interesting in having a strong platform in the Middle East if they thought the Israelis would provide it.

  14. Citizen
    April 19, 2013, 3:39 pm

    “Its very unlikely that Israel or the US will be given a blank check for more than a few more months, much less a few years, before international support for an imposed or arbitrated solution becomes insurmountable.Its very unlikely that Israel or the US will be given a blank check for more than a few more months, much less a few years, before international support for an imposed or arbitrated solution becomes insurmountable.”

    Yep. The WH and US Congress that Jewish Israel Firsters have bought for so long is going to be confronted in an effective
    way, at long last.

  15. sydnestel
    April 19, 2013, 3:54 pm

    The 2 state solution might be dead, but that doesn’t mean that the one state solution is alive. The logic that says that 2 states can’t work because Israel won’t allow it to, and has established too many facts on the ground, would also dictate that a one – egalitarian – state solution is dead for the same reasons.

    I also don’t see a Palestinian majority for a single multi-cultural, multi-national, egalitarian state. Fatah and the PA still officially support a two state solution (they want to see a Palestinian Arab team at the Olympics and hear a Palestinian Arab national anthem at the UN), and Hamas supports a one – non egalitarian Islamic – state solution.

    I suspect that it is true that a 2 state solution is dead. But that is no reason to rejoice, in my opinion. The practical alternative is probably worse.

  16. Carllarc
    April 19, 2013, 4:45 pm

    to say the 1ss is the only option because the 2ss is no longer an option leaves a gaping blank for the dynamic of from ‘here’ to ‘there’. in other words, to suggest an endpoint, like the single secular state vs the single Jewish state vs a 2ss, requires some proposition of a processes, a dynamic, that can realistically get to that endpoint. It is entirely a waste of time to argue endpoints w/o filling in the blank. indeed, this is how the 2ss has failed — there has been no realistic process engaged that can actually reach that solution because it is not in Israel’s interest.

    it is up to the Palestinians to impose the process that can reach a single secular state; clearly, Israel won’t. from what I have read the best process is to use unilateral declarations of dual citizenship by the Palestinian Authority for dual citizenship for Israeli Palestinians and for the so-called ‘settlers’. the use of dual citizenship follows Israel’s use of the same to create ‘dual loyalties’ of Jewish citizens of other countries with Israel; therefore, dual citizenship with Israeli Palestinians and the Israeli colonists would create dual loyalties.

  17. DICKERSON3870
    April 19, 2013, 4:55 pm

    RE: John Kerry is saying that the two-state solution will die within two years. He surely knows it’s dead now, because his State Department will do nothing to end the settlement project, and he is preparing the west to move on to a new paradigm. Bad news for the Israelis, who have gotten to have their cake and eat it too. ~ Weiss

    MY COMMENT: Cake? Or was it “carrots” provided to Israel by the U.S. (that the Israelis have made into a “carrot stew”* and eaten)?

    * FROM foreignaffairs.com: “South Africa: Why Constructive Engagement Failed”, By Sanford J. Ungar and Peter Vale, Winter 1985/86

    Article Summary

    Ronald Reagan’s imposition of limited economic sanctions against the South African regime in September was a tacit admission that his policy of “constructive engagement”–encouraging change in the apartheid system through a quiet dialogue with that country’s white minority leaders–had failed. Having been offered many carrots by the United States over a period of four-and-a-half years as incentives to institute meaningful reforms, the South African authorities had simply made a carrot stew and eaten it. Under the combined pressures of the seemingly cataclysmic events in South Africa since September 1984 and the dramatic surge of anti-apartheid protest and political activism in the United States, the Reagan Administration was finally embarrassed into brandishing some small sticks as an element of American policy.
    [We're sorry, but Foreign Affairs does not have the copyright to display this article online.]

    SOURCE – link to foreignaffairs.com

  18. DICKERSON3870
    April 19, 2013, 5:17 pm

    ● RE: “Israelis don’t like this– to have the figleaf of the two-state solution ripped away… Recall that in December, Elliott Abrams, who spent years maintaining the figleaf for Israel as it devoured the West Bank, ripped Jodi Rudoren of the Times for suggesting that construction in E-1 would finish the two-state solution . . .” ~ Weiss

    MY COMMENT: Elliott Abrams is the most preeminent of the “two state fakers”! ! !

    ● FROM ELLIOTT ABRAMS, The Washington (Neocon) Post, 04/08/09:

    [EXCERPT] . . . Is current and recent settlement construction creating insurmountable barriers to peace? A simple test shows that it is not. Ten years ago, in the Camp David talks, Prime Minister Ehud Barak offered Yasser Arafat approximately 94 percent of the West Bank, with a land swap to make up half of the percent Israel would keep. According to news reports, just three months ago, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert offered 93 percent, with a one-to-one land swap. In the end, under the January 2009 offer, Palestinians would have received an area equal to 98 to 98.5 percent of the West Bank (depending on which press report you read), while 10 years ago they were offered 97 percent. Ten years of settlement activity would have resulted in a larger area for the Palestinian state. . .

    SOURCE – link to washingtonpost.com

    ● P.S. Elliott Abrams has totally convinced me [by the sheer power of his (il)logic and his very impressive math skills] to wholeheartedly support the Israeli settlement project in the West Bank.
    As I understand it, the ‘Abrams Principle’ stands for the proposition that more Israeli settlement activity in the West Bank will result in a larger area for the Palestinian state. That’s why I say: “Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead” with the settlement actvity; so as to result in the largest Palestinian state possible (from the Mediterranean Sea to the Jordan River), no matter what that state is called. Fiat justitia! ( “Let Justice Be Done!” )

    ● P.P.S. According to a recent EU Briefing Paper (EU Trade with Israeli Settlements, Version 2: Published August 2012), “[t]he total area controlled by settlements is around 43 per cent of the West Bank.” The Briefing Paper further explains that “[w]hile fenced or patrolled areas of settlements cover three per cent of the West Bank, 43 per cent of the West Bank is off-limits for Palestinian use because of its allocation to the settlements’ local and regional councils, according to UN OCHA OPT (January 2012) factsheet ‘The Humanitarian Impact of Israeli Settlement Policies’ .”
    SOURCE [EU Trade with Israeli Settlements (PDF)] – link to qcea.org

  19. upsidedownism
    April 19, 2013, 5:36 pm

    Keep in mind that THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A “TWO STATE SOLUTION” in terms of two equal states. Every proposal has been for a neutered, subservient Palestine alongside a belligerent, US backed Israeli regional superpower.

  20. Erasmus
    April 19, 2013, 5:44 pm

    Is John Kerry and the USA getting really serious about the 2SS ???

    May be yes. That can not be ruled out.
    And what may have caused such a turn-around? Since we are all speculating, here is a possible and imho not far-fetched explanation:

    After all those 65 years, the US foreign policy thinkers, thinking the Near East scenario forward, say another 20-30 or even 50 years, have come to the conclusion that the 2SS with a democratic Israel is the ONLY chance they will have a n y State of Israel at all to ally with.
    Failing which the alternative solution – 1SS – means : ADIOS ISRAEL!
    Before such a likely development, US influence can best be safeguarded with a 2SS, where the State of Israel has a considerably better chance to survive, provided it will opt for Democracy and give up the “Jewish” State.

  21. lysias
    April 19, 2013, 5:54 pm

    What’s to stop Kerry from forgetting, in a year or two, that he ever said this?

    If somebody brings this up, his spokesman can call the question “unhelpful”.

  22. MRW
    April 19, 2013, 6:06 pm

    Zuckerman weighs in.
    link to usnews.com

  23. ToivoS
    April 19, 2013, 7:46 pm

    If the 2ss is no longer possible then it seems that the only thing that the US can do is to work to establish the apartheid solution. This we will do, as we have for the last decade with two tools.

    One, is for the US (and the Gulf Emirates and the EU) to continue to give the PA 100s of million dollars each year. This money is creating a wealthy upper middle class in Ramalla and paying for a security force to suppress the average Palestinian. This is the neocolonial solution that has worked well in SE Asia, Africa and South America (well until recently at least).

    Two will be to continue negotiations indefinitely. Should we call this two year time line a Kerry Unit. Once every year or so we can cite the KU as a deadline. In the meantime Israel will be working hard to convince the rest of the world not to interfere in negotiations by supporting BDS. This is the one tool that could put serious pressure on Israel.

    Of course such a policy will not work indefinitely but it could go on for many decades. Just as neocolonialism is weakening across the world these policies will eventually fail in Israel. And when it happens, the Jewish state of Israel will disappear. This is the stark reality. This is something that people like Norm Finklestein, Noam Chomsky and Uri Avnery must realize and explains why they often seem politically naive when discussing Israel. They really want Israel to succeed and can’t accept, at some level, the implications of Israeli actions.

  24. kalithea
    April 20, 2013, 12:22 am

    Here’s another reality check:

    First of all, the U.S. knows it’s over. Try to convince me the “know-it-all” U.S. government that can find a needle in a Pakistani haystack, doesn’t know the two-state is dead. They know it’s dead alright, they’re kicking the can and they’re praying and waiting for a palatable, Arab League agreed-upon ethnic cleansing or annexation deal to arise.

    But the enablers of this Palestinian tragedy don’t only include the warden Israel, the U.S. gatekeepers who shun Palestinian rights and freedoms at every turn and the cowardly Europeans, also included is the Palestinian Authority and I want to share with you the following question which brilliantly describes the PA’s role:

    “How long will the Palestinian Authority keep acting as the subcontractor for Israeli rule, of the settlement policy and the diplomatic status quo?”

    source: link to friday-lunch-club.blogspot.ca

    So Palestinians don’t have a thing going for them. You see, Zionists have feverishly worked everyone over with the guilt trip and emotional blackmail to ensure the system is totally rigged against the Palestinian inmates of the only legitimized 21st century gulag that is run by Zionists.

    Indeed, what a web they weave! Zionists are so devious – all bases covered!

  25. piotr
    April 20, 2013, 10:06 am

    Didn’t we see a lightning striking the laboratory of Dr. Frankenstein (a.k.a. Sec. Kerry)? Not really, but the parts of dead bodies are being stitched to look like “the peace process”. Some people say that the creature was alive some time ago but somehow it was killed and quartered, some pieces got missing and some rotted, but new it looks like new (if you do not pay attention to crude stitching). Yet, will there be a spark strong enough to put it in motion?

    A tepid off the record statement can be enough to cause leg twitching of a dissected frog, but reanimation of a large body requires something much, much stronger… Suppose that all the senators who voted to confirm Hagel (plus Kerry, Obama etc.) would gather together and urge everybody to restore 1967 borders and make a treaty with (somewhat) equitable security guarantees? That would do it, I guess. Energy needed to produce that feat could be supplied by the combined output of all power stations in USA and China, we just need to invest in the transmission cables and so on.

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