This post is part of Marc H. Ellis’s “Exile and the Prophetic” feature for Mondoweiss. To read the entire series visit the archive page.
Will personal diplomacy do the trick? Has our Secretary of Pandering become a couples therapist?
So says Haaretz (link) in their attempt to describe why John Kerry’s latest round in the Middle East is bound to fail.
It seems that everyone in the world knows that John Kerry will fail except him. Though I admire his tenacity, Kerry’s desire to replace psychological prodding with critical political analysis is worrying. It’s a recipe for a failure.
While President Obama is touring Africa and the New York Times discusses how the ailing Nelson Mandela’s influenced him (link) Kerry – along with the President himself – should take a Israel/Palestine play from Mandela’s political playbook: Take a stand and stick with it through thick and thin. Be willing to suffer for principles that have political consequences. Build a future worth bequeathing to our children.
What would that mean for our Secretary of Pandering? What would it take for John Kerry to become our Secretary of Principle?
To begin with, Kerry should stop treating Israeli and Palestinian leaders as psychological patients. Both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Abbas are seasoned politicians. For all their limitations, they have navigated the treacherous political waters of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict for decades. They know where the bodies are buried. They’ve helped bury them.
Netanyahu and Abbas are survivors. Neither is going to sign a deal they don’t want to or can’t. Neither is going to be convinced through enhanced psychological techniques.
Netanyahu and Abbas know well that Obama’s second-term power dwindles daily and that victory laps in the final years of his Presidency – including his present travels in Africa – will be limited to pomp and ceremony. Soon there will be new faces to deal with on the Presidential scene. When Obama and Kerry – and Clinton and everybody else – talk about the Two State window closing, Netanyahu and Abbas are thinking about the Obama Presidency window closing.
The idea of Netanyahu’s change of heart or his fear of a bi-national reality is exaggerated. His reported signing on to Israel taking 10% of the West Bank with an Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley is fantasy on a variety of levels. In the first case, 10% is much more than the relatively small percentage indicates. Among other things, it doesn’t deal with East Jerusalem or the various military, security and economic controls Israel would maintain in the West Bank. Left out of the equation is Gaza.
Such a deal, if signed, would mean a permanent occupation of historic Palestine by Israel. It isn’t going to happen.
Netanyahu might negotiate parts of such a deal as a way of stalling for time if he could garner enough political support – which is doubtful. Abbas, even if he was likewise stalling for time, could never sign it. Politically it is impossible.
The Palestinian people are in a quandary of epic proportions. But agreeing to permanent occupation is not in the cards.
No one knows what it would be like for the reality as it is – one state, Israel, controlling Tel Aviv to the Jordan River, with millions of Palestinians stranded in between – to be negotiated, signed, sealed and delivered. Whenever it has reportedly come close, both sides walked away. This is the case today, perhaps more than ever.
Whether our psychologically-inclined Secretary of Pandering will spend a few extra days in the Middle East is immaterial. When he returns home, Kerry needs the therapy he is currently offering to Netanyahu and Abbas. In the end, though, the psychological couch can only do part of the work. The other, more important, part is standing for principles that have political consequences.
Counseling Palestinians to sign on to a permanent Israeli occupation is suicide. It is psychological – and political – malpractice.
I think its probably more of a case of Obama and Kerry pinning the tail on Israel’s donkey with a great deal of fanfare. After all, the Palestinians are simply asking Israel to abide by the applicable UN resolutions and the Quartet Road map obligations that have been endorsed by the Security Council regarding construction in the settlements.
Kerry has established the opening of the next session of the General Assembly as his deadline. The Palestinians have played along, while stating that they will try to join the UN and other organizations, like the ICC at that time.
It may seem unlikely, but according to the terms of the Road Map, the US is obliged to promote recognition of the State of Palestine and UN membership before the Phase III final status negotiations begin. It would not be in the US interest to beat a dead horse and try to block full UN membership of a UN observer state, much less an ICC member state. It’s role in aiding and abetting apartheid can be called into question, since it has sold arms and crowd control devices to Israel and funded the construction through USAID of a separate network of roads that facilitate the Israeli system of apartheid. At some point, common sense would dictate that the US will recognize the State of Palestine, if for no other reason than to try and conclude a bilateral Article 98 agreement. See The Status of US Bilateral Immunity Agreements http://www.iccnow.org/documents/CICCFS_BIAstatus_current.pdf
Blackmail can work both ways.
I reached the limits of patience on this US Israel I/P freak show way back.
We should have gone Irish on this gangster circus a long time ago.
Hopey in changey leads to the same graveyard, it just takes longer to get there.
“The Untouchables”
‘If you want to win the gangster war, Irish-American officer Jimmy Malone (Sean Connery) explains, you have to fight disproportionately: “You wanna get Capone? Here’s how you get him. He pulls a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue”.
Israel has put the horns on Kerry – Kerry isn’t the therapist, Kerry is the cuckold
(‘has put the horns on’ = cuckolded him – he being the only one who ‘doesn’t know’)
RE: “The idea of Netanyahu’s change of heart or his fear of a bi-national reality is exaggerated. His reported signing on to Israel taking 10% of the West Bank with an Israeli military presence in the Jordan Valley is fantasy on a variety of levels. . . Netanyahu might negotiate parts of such a deal as a way of stalling for time . . .“ ~ Marc Ellis
FROM JOEL KOVEL, 1-20-13:
SOURCE – https://mondoweiss.mystagingwebsite.com/2013/01/israel-nominaton-hagel.html
ALSO SEE: “Permanent Temporariness”, by Alastair Crooke, London Review of Books, 03/03/11:
SOURCE – http://www.lrb.co.uk/v33/n05/alastair-crooke/permanent-temporariness