(Photo: Reuters)
Is the Israeli Jewish public open to a two-state solution?
On Wednesday, I argued that if you take a close look at poll numbers detailing what the Israeli Jewish public thinks of a Palestinian state, you would find that the answer to that question is no. Others disagree, including Brent Sasley, the University of Texas professor who teaches Middle East politics and is a frequent contributor to Open Zion.
In a blog post on Mideast Matrix, Sasley argues that I make “several presumptions that I don’t think can be taken as indicative of Israelis’ or Israel’s final position on a peace agreement with the Palestinians.” But Sasley misreads some of my argument.
He writes that my argument is “based on the most recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute.” But my post is not primarily based around that poll. My piece instead relied on several polls that show that when Israelis say they accept a Palestinian state, they mean a truncated and unviable state.
Specifically, Israeli Jewish citizens have told pollsters that they would agree to a Palestinian state–but this is a state in which the settlement blocs would be annexed to Israel, which poses a real problem for the contiguity of a Palestinian state. Polls show that the Israeli Jewish public is in support of a two-state solution that leaves a sliced-up Palestinian state. This is especially the case if you keep Ariel under Israeli hands, though Ma’ale Adumim to the south also poses a similar problem.
Add the question of dividing Jerusalem–another prerequisite for a Palestinian state–and the picture is mixed. While one poll cited by Sasley in Foreign Policy shows that most Israeli Jews support dividing Jerusalem (with the caveat being that major settlement blocs around Jerusalem are annexed), other polls show the opposite. In 2011, a Truman Institute poll found that the majority of Israeli Jews reject dividing Jerusalem. In 2013, the right-leaning Jerusalem Post found that 74% of Israeli Jews reject a Palestinian capital in the holy city.
Sasley also argues that I assume “that public opinion polls determine outcomes.” But you would be hard-pressed to find that assumption in my piece. Indeed, my article is focused on public opinion polls, but not because I think they are determinative of a solution.
Rather, I focused on public opinion polls because they are routinely cited by those seeking to find hope in the hopeless peace process. Writers like Sasley try to bolster their case that a two-state solution is possible because of what the polls say. It’s fine to argue that a two-state solution is possible (I disagree for a variety of reasons, but that’s another point). What the polls simply show is that the Israeli Jewish public is not interested in a viable, contiguous state. And that’s what matters: what you mean by Palestinian state. If Ariel, Ma’ale Adumim and other settlement blocs are to stay forever in Israeli hands, then a Palestinian state will be beset by the woes that those settlements bring. It would mean, first and foremost, blocked routes between Palestinian cities.
And it also matters greatly what Palestinians themselves want, since it is their rights that are at stake in these discussions and their rights being violated daily. The Palestinian population is simply not going to accept Israeli annexation of Ariel, Ma’ale Adumim and other settlement blocs.
There is no straight line from public opinion to what a government will do, as Sasley writes. But in this case, that question is somewhat irrelevant. The type of state the Israeli Jewish public accepts is in line with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vision of a Palestinian state.
All of this leaves us with a depressing situation, where the most powerful party in the conflict is unwilling to dismantle illegal settlements and allow a viable Palestinian state. But the situation is not hopeless. If change won’t come from within Israel, international action combined with a strong Palestinian movement could change the game. That’s a far ways off for now, but it’s one path towards a better future.
Sadly, I say “no”, the Israeli public is not open to a viable Palestinian state. They might be open to a solution that it is not acceptable to the Palestinian people. De facto, however, that is tantamount to a “no.”
And why would they? Any material impact from either the Palestinians (intifada, resistance, etc.) or the international community is basically non existent; they know that the Israeli supporters in the country that matters the most (the US) will go along with whatever the Israeli government wants, and they don’t even have to pay for the cost of the occupation which is generously, although mostly unknowingly, supplied by the US taxpayers.
With supporters like Dr. Oz, why should they? Here is a report about his recent visit to those lovely settlers in Hebron:
http://972mag.com/dr-oz-dances-with-hebron-settlers/76690/
If the price of peace is a Judenrein Palestinian Arab state, virtually every Israeli Jew rejects it.
There is no reason in the world the Arabs can’t have a state with a 20% Jewish minority when Israel has a parallel 20% Arab minority.
Of course land swaps would place each minority into its respective state but the Arabs reject transferring their Arab brethren within Israel to their rule. A strange position to take if you genuinely seek self-determination for all Palestinians.
But their opposition makes a lot of sense if they want to maintain an Arab Fifth Column within Israel to destroy the Jewish State later. The Jews do not want to be put in the position of the Czechs in the 1930s.
Most Jewish Israelis doubt the Arabs really want peace. And with their absolute rejection of a Jewish minority living in Palestine, a contiguous state appears to be out of the question. But this has nothing to do with Jewish Israeli acceptance of a two states for two peoples formula. This has to do with Arab racism and intransigence.
There has to be a sea change among the Arabs with their acceptance of the Jews sharing the land with them as a sine qua non for peace be possible. In our lifetime, that’s a pipe dream and for that reason alone, any putative two state solution is in fact a dead letter.
1,000,000 Palestinians allowed entry into Israel during Ramadan month.
http://972mag.com/from-the-checkpoint-to-the-sea-a-month-of-ramadan-photos/77133/
Mondoweiss has nothing to say.
My overall impression from this and that poll, and statements, and most of the liberal zio group in and out of Israel is their position is that —- *Israel gets to take and keep whatever Israel wants first * —- and then if there is anything ‘left over’—- the Palestines can have it as some kind of ghetto or Gypsy camp.