David Remnick’s piece in The New Yorker on traveling with Obama has a number of Israel moments, including a fundraiser at Haim Saban’s spread in L.A. with “a Warhol diptych of Golda Meir and Albert Einstein over the fireplace.”
And there’s this:
Obama told me that in all three of his main initiatives in the region—with Iran, with Israel and the Palestinians, with Syria—the odds of completing final treaties are less than fifty-fifty. “On the other hand,” he said, “in all three circumstances we may be able to push the boulder partway up the hill and maybe stabilize it so it doesn’t roll back on us. And all three are connected. I do believe that the region is going through rapid change and inexorable change. Some of it is demographics; some of it is technology; some of it is economics. And the old order, the old equilibrium, is no longer tenable. The question then becomes, What’s next?”
P.S. A couple smart folks have said of Obama’s Jerusalem speech last March, “Remarks … to the People of Israel,” that he was washing his hands of the mess. I’ve told you what you have to do, now do it. And if you can’t… tough luck.
I think the odds are 50-50 on Iran. 89-11 on Israel Palestine and 100-1 on Syria.
Well his policy towards Syria (i.e. Assad must go) looks like it will end in abject failure. These Geneva II talks have some hope if they can be used to pressure the Sauds and Qatar to stop funding the war in Syria and perhaps to use the talks to figure out a way to repatriate those thousands of terrorists in Syria back to their home countries.
It goes without saying that the Kerry/IP talks are going nowhere.
Now Iran is the critical one. I predict that will end on a positive note. Obama will somehow convince the Senate to not interfere and the international-diplomatic dynamics will result in an agreement where sanctions are lifted and Iran preserves its rights under the NPT.
I would consider that 50% success for the three issues.
Obama’s not wrong in his assessment. The only question is, will he take the pulpit to directly address the American masses about Israel? I say no. So he’s just part of the status quo.
Until and unless the US becomes honest and withdraws from aparthied Israel, we will fail. The rest of the world and the Palestinian people will make justice happen when we are removed from the “process”.
Our complicity with the criminal state, our own actions in “defense” of the indefensible, and our hypocrisy are legendary.
The odds are 100% on the Iran deal. The decision has been made to make Iran the hegemon of the middle east, its a natural ally of the USA, the Arab Spring has changed everything as Egypt and Saudi Arabia are too unstable. In the unlikely event of Congress going against him, he can use the veto and claim the American people are behind him.