The betting line on Netanyahu’s speech to Congress

Israel/Palestine
on 36 Comments

In the spirit of the Super Bowl I have decided to release my betting line for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress. As you might know, you can bet on nearly everything during Sunday’s big game. I want to bring some of that action to Mondoweiss.

Here are the current betting lines as of this afternoon. As with football they are open to change:

Odds Netanyahu cancels his speech and apologizes to President Obama: 100 to 1
Odds Netanyahu “reschedules” his speech, makes sure it never happens and hopes no one ever brings it up again: 2 to 1

Odds Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer gets canned: 3 to 1
Odds Dermer moves back to Florida: 5 to 1
Odds Dermer runs the Republican Jewish Coalition within three months: 2 to 1

Over/Under on standing ovations Netanyahu will receive in 60-minute speech: 60

Netanyahu with prop at UN GA, 2012, Mario Tama, Getty Images

Netanyahu with prop at UN GA, 2012, Mario Tama, Getty Images

Over/Under on number of props Netanyahu will use during speech: 5
Over/Under on times Netanyahu refers to “the insatiable crocodile of militant Islam“: 10
Odds Netanyahu brings an “insatiable crocodile of militant Islam” with him as a prop: 2 to 1

Over/under on times Netanyahu says, “Iran is a fanatic regime that pledges to wipe Israel off the map”: 80
Over/under on the times Netanyahu says, “Israel is committed to just and lasting two-state solution”: n/a

Odds the following will be thanked during the speech:

  • John Boehner: 1 to 1
  • Chris Kyle: 10 to 1
  • Ted Cruz: 100 to 1
  • Tom Cruise: 1,000 to 1
  • Carnival Cruise Lines: 10,000 to 1
  • Barack Obama: 100,000 to 1

Time within which Netanyahu will say Iran will have a nuclear weapon:

  • A few years: 10 to 1
  • A few months: 5 to 1
  • A few minutes: 1 to 1

Odds on color of John Boehner’s tie on the Congressional dais:

  • Blue: 5 to 1
  • White: 5 to 1
  • Blue and White: 2 to 1
  • Red, White and Blue: 5,000 to 1
About Adam Horowitz

Adam Horowitz is Co-Editor of Mondoweiss.net.

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36 Responses

  1. a blah chick
    January 30, 2015, 4:41 pm

    Dermer’s from Florida so maybe they should get an insatiable “gator” of militant Islam.

  2. Eva Smagacz
    January 30, 2015, 4:45 pm

    May I blow my trumpet and say I was there first:

    Betting:

    less than 25 standing ovations 10-1
    more than 25 standing ovations but less than 40 standing ovations odds on favourite: 4-7
    more than 40 standing ovations: 2-1
    unanimous standing ovation odds on favourite: 3-8
    non-unanimous standing ovation (retiring members of congress not standing/clapping) 100 – 1
    non-unanimous standing ovation (returning members of congress not standing/clapping) 1000000 – 1

    – See more at: http://mondoweiss.net/profile/eva-smagacz#sthash.M8C2ZwDx.dpuf

    • CloakAndDagger
      January 30, 2015, 4:46 pm

      Jinx!

    • Philip Weiss
      January 30, 2015, 5:34 pm

      Thanks Eva! Ahead of the curve
      P

      • Blownaway
        February 1, 2015, 1:25 pm

        I hope Bibi kills it! I hope he gives the best speech of his life. I hope he does whatever he needs to do to win…I hope he continues to slap Obama on his way to a huge right wing victory. The twin opportunity of Bibi winning and Obama insulted and a right wing nut win is the only hope for global action for Palestine. My biggest fear is that Herzog/Livni win and the cosmetic occupation take over. Reading the Palestinian papers shows that Livni turned down the best deal ever offered by the Palestinains borderline traitorous by Abbas. The world will breathe a sigh of relief and the peace process will be back while the occupation dressed nice will entrench further. go Bibi go win baby

    • Kathleen
      January 30, 2015, 9:28 pm

      Own it Eva. A simple mondo mention for the idea would have been nice.

    • ckg
      January 31, 2015, 2:10 am

      Excellent, Adam and Eva! But I am confident the definitive line on the betting odds will be set by the Sands Hotel and Casino.

    • piotr
      February 1, 2015, 8:38 pm

      You have various hedges for “non-unanimous standing ovation”. I foresee that at least one member will not be able to take part for the lack of stamina. As it was shown on unaired but available skid of SNL, support for Israel became kind of a sport, and increasing efforts are required to maintain top standing. Senator McCain, with a war injury and high ambitions for an excellent result is one candidate for a willing spirit not supported by an equally willing body.

  3. CloakAndDagger
    January 30, 2015, 4:46 pm

    What are the odds on what percentage of congress will participate in standing ovations? 100%, 60%, 20%?

    • a blah chick
      January 30, 2015, 5:45 pm

      %120! They bus family in to make sure AIPAC gets its money’s worth.

    • W.Jones
      January 30, 2015, 6:33 pm

      Whoever goes there will ovate, But some people will skip the speech.

      Democrats are split between desires to show support for the Israeli government and Obama.

      Most congresspeople will participate in the standing ovations. More than 60%, but less than 100%

      Probably more than 95%, but it’s hard to say if we will see a defection among Democrats like Pelosi, but that would be over-optimistic thinking. So yes, it will probably be like last time with maybe 3-15 people not going. If there will be a defection, although unlikely, it will be seen in the next month and a half, not as a last minute thing.

      • Mooser
        January 31, 2015, 12:28 pm

        “Whoever goes there will ovate”

        Exactly, WJones, I can just hear them asking each other: “Does this speech make my ass look fat?”

  4. italian ex-pat
    January 30, 2015, 5:14 pm

    Color of Boehner’s tie? I am tempted to bet blue and white, but I think it will be blue – it goes so well with his eyes and he is a vain man.

    • W.Jones
      January 30, 2015, 6:35 pm

      Probably Boehner will have orange or red like before with Net. But who knows.

    • Philip Munger
      January 31, 2015, 2:50 pm

      During Netanyahu’s last address to a joint session of congress, Boehner wore a pink salmon-colored tie. The President of the Senate, Vice President Biden, wore a silvery sky blue tie that matched Netanyahu’s

      Here is a link to the twenty-nine lines Netanyahu delivered that got him his 29 standing O’s.

      http://www.salon.com/2011/05/24/netanyahu_standing_ovations/

      He will go for over 30.

  5. W.Jones
    January 30, 2015, 6:13 pm

    MY BETS:

    Netanyahu cancels his speech and apologizes to President Obama:
    Won’t happen.

    Netanyahu “reschedules” his speech, makes sure it never happens and hopes no one ever brings it up again:
    Probably Won’t happen

    Odds Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer gets canned: 3 to 1
    Probably will happen.

    Odds Dermer moves back to Florida: 5 to 1
    Won’t happen.

    Dermer runs the Republican Jewish Coalition within three months:
    Won’t happen

    standing ovations Netanyahu will receive in 60-minute speech: 60
    25 is about right. Less than last time (28).

    number of props Netanyahu will use during speech:
    0
    times Netanyahu refers to “the insatiable crocodile of militant Islam“:
    0

    Netanyahu brings an “insatiable crocodile of militant Islam” with him as a prop:
    0

    times Netanyahu says, “Iran is a fanatic regime that pledges to wipe Israel off the map”:
    0

    times Netanyahu says, “Israel is committed to just and lasting two-state solution”:
    He Won’t.

    Odds the following will be thanked during the speech:

    John Boehner: Yes
    Chris Kyle: No.
    Ted Cruz: Probably not.
    Tom Cruise: No
    Carnival Cruise Lines: No.
    Barack Obama: Probably not.

    Time within which Netanyahu will say Iran will have a nuclear weapon:
    He won’t.

    color of John Boehner’s tie on the Congressional dais:

    Blue: N0
    White: N0
    Blue and White: No
    Red, White and Blue: N0

    • Giles
      January 31, 2015, 9:55 am

      Number of times Netanyahu says, “Iran is a fanatic regime that pledges to wipe Israel off the map”: 0

      times Netanyahu says, “Israel is committed to just and lasting two-state solution”: He Won’t.

      Time within which Netanyahu will say Iran will have a nuclear weapon: He won’t.

      Hey, can I get some of that action with W Jones?

      Is it against the rules to place bets on Mondoweiss?

      • W.Jones
        January 31, 2015, 11:32 am

        Net. says (and will probably tell Congress) that Iran will have nukes within a few years if we let them. He doesn’t make it an unconditional prediction that it will definitely happen.

        That is what I mean.

      • Giles
        January 31, 2015, 2:35 pm

        I’m pretty sure Netanyahu has specified a time limit on how long it will take Iran to have a nuke many times in the past. Never gets called on it when it never happens.

  6. JWalters
    January 30, 2015, 6:55 pm

    Odds that any commentator in Israel’s mainstream American media mentions that Israel has been the aggressor in their every war – 100,000 to 1

  7. ritzl
    January 30, 2015, 8:44 pm
  8. Nevada Ned
    January 30, 2015, 11:38 pm

    Most Americans think that Netanyahu ought to be investigated for smuggling nuclear weapons technology before he gives a speech to Congress.

  9. David Samel
    January 30, 2015, 11:50 pm

    Adam great post! I was l’ing o l.
    More seriously, I am not convinced this whole affair is anything more than an embarrassment that will be endured. I would be surprised (pleasantly) if it signifies any meaningful change in policy or congressional obsequiousness to Israel

  10. Kay24
    January 31, 2015, 5:12 am

    Good Article Adam, and funny too. Chances are this one too shall pass, and in a few months the US and Israel will join hands, sing kumbaya, and the next time Bibi sends his brutal forces to kill civilians in Gaza, the US will show unwavering support and hand over the weapons to do so.
    I do wish Americans would wake up from this stupor they seem to be in, and realize we are under control of a dangerous entity, and that agents like Dermer are able to manipulate and interfere in our policies. What are we, the United States of Israel?

    • W.Jones
      January 31, 2015, 11:33 am

      ((Good Article Adam, and funny too. Chances are this one too shall pass, and in a few months the US and Israel will join hands, sing kumbaya, and the next time Bibi sends his brutal forces to kill civilians in Gaza, the US will show unwavering support and hand over the weapons to do so.))
      Yes.

  11. piotr
    January 31, 2015, 11:39 am

    What will be the number of Congress members in need of medical help due to excessive clapping?

    • W.Jones
      February 8, 2015, 6:25 pm

      Probably some of their hands will hurt a bit. But getting up and sitting down almost 30 times will be good exercize.

  12. a blah chick
    January 31, 2015, 12:17 pm

    I think the Butcher should get someone to read his speech for him. Someone not associated with the I/P issue or Iran and therefore unbiased.

    May I offer in nomination Marshawn “Beast Mode” Lynch of the Seattle Seahawks.

    From what I have seen of his public speaking abilities he is just the person to give this speech the gravity it deserves.

    • MRW
      January 31, 2015, 5:44 pm

      So, Butcher Bibi. Has a nice ring to it.

      B2 or B^2

    • Philip Munger
      February 1, 2015, 3:52 am

      Hopefully, at some time in the future, Netanyahu won’t be able to set foot outside of Israel, let alone in the US Congress, and his response will be “I’m just here [in Israel] so I don’t get fined arrested.”

      Netanyahu is less worthy than the sweat Marshawn Lynch scratches out of his jock strap.

  13. jdc2408
    January 31, 2015, 1:47 pm

    Sorry if someone has already mentioned it, I haven’t read all the comments, but what’s the over/under on how many times he says the word Terrorism or Terrorist, or any form of the word? I’d say it’s fair to start at 15, maybe 20.

  14. seafoid
    January 31, 2015, 3:24 pm

    The following words to be namechecked: jewish people, homeland, threatened, wipe, red line, must not, duty to, nazi, genocide.
    Words that won’t be used : kindness, foresight, decency, sorry for wasting your time

  15. seafoid
    January 31, 2015, 3:37 pm

    Fast forward 50 years and imagine a failed carpet salesman claiming to be the leader of the parthian natio
    n speaking in the Great Hall of the people about the need for war against the ancient enemy babylon.

    That is less farfetched than a polish jew in congress screaming blue murder about ira n

  16. almostvoid
    February 1, 2015, 3:23 am

    super bowl? you mean super bowel? [what is super bowl anyway? not everyone is amerikan and this is the worldwideweb not myopic amerika that can’t think beyond its own mentally challenged view of everything. and tom cruise. you are being ridiculous

  17. Sycamores
    February 1, 2015, 1:26 pm

    what are the odds that Netanyahu will denounced the ICC at congress?

  18. mikeo
    February 1, 2015, 7:15 pm

    Speaking of bets…

    I wrote a comment on March 20, 2014 on the article:

    “Ululating at Vassar: the Israel/Palestine conflict comes to America”

    In that comment responding to “BrianEsker” I said:

    “The fraud, thuggery and racism which suffuses this transplanted hate Israel fad is recognized more and more as brainwash for hormonal youth on campus.”

    You are delusional – the US is the last bastion of suppoert for Israel and it is falling…

    With all the Hasbara in the world and complete control of official channels of information to shape the message…

    Israel is marginally more popular worldwide than Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.

    I think Iran may overtake you this year – their press has been rather good unlike Israel’s

    Well lookee at todays article in the Independent!

    Britons dislike Israel more than Iran – but North Korea beats them both as most maligned nation

    Just as I predicted…

    I should be a betting man : )

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