In the spirit of the Super Bowl I have decided to release my betting line for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming speech to Congress. As you might know, you can bet on nearly everything during Sunday’s big game. I want to bring some of that action to Mondoweiss.
Here are the current betting lines as of this afternoon. As with football they are open to change:
Odds Netanyahu cancels his speech and apologizes to President Obama: 100 to 1
Odds Netanyahu “reschedules” his speech, makes sure it never happens and hopes no one ever brings it up again: 2 to 1
Odds Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer gets canned: 3 to 1
Odds Dermer moves back to Florida: 5 to 1
Odds Dermer runs the Republican Jewish Coalition within three months: 2 to 1
Over/Under on standing ovations Netanyahu will receive in 60-minute speech: 60
Over/Under on number of props Netanyahu will use during speech: 5
Over/Under on times Netanyahu refers to “the insatiable crocodile of militant Islam“: 10
Odds Netanyahu brings an “insatiable crocodile of militant Islam” with him as a prop: 2 to 1
Over/under on times Netanyahu says, “Iran is a fanatic regime that pledges to wipe Israel off the map”: 80
Over/under on the times Netanyahu says, “Israel is committed to just and lasting two-state solution”: n/a
Odds the following will be thanked during the speech:
- John Boehner: 1 to 1
- Chris Kyle: 10 to 1
- Ted Cruz: 100 to 1
- Tom Cruise: 1,000 to 1
- Carnival Cruise Lines: 10,000 to 1
- Barack Obama: 100,000 to 1
Time within which Netanyahu will say Iran will have a nuclear weapon:
- A few years: 10 to 1
- A few months: 5 to 1
- A few minutes: 1 to 1
Odds on color of John Boehner’s tie on the Congressional dais:
- Blue: 5 to 1
- White: 5 to 1
- Blue and White: 2 to 1
- Red, White and Blue: 5,000 to 1
Dermer’s from Florida so maybe they should get an insatiable “gator” of militant Islam.
May I blow my trumpet and say I was there first:
Betting:
less than 25 standing ovations 10-1
more than 25 standing ovations but less than 40 standing ovations odds on favourite: 4-7
more than 40 standing ovations: 2-1
unanimous standing ovation odds on favourite: 3-8
non-unanimous standing ovation (retiring members of congress not standing/clapping) 100 – 1
non-unanimous standing ovation (returning members of congress not standing/clapping) 1000000 – 1
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What are the odds on what percentage of congress will participate in standing ovations? 100%, 60%, 20%?
Color of Boehner’s tie? I am tempted to bet blue and white, but I think it will be blue – it goes so well with his eyes and he is a vain man.
MY BETS:
Netanyahu cancels his speech and apologizes to President Obama:
Won’t happen.
Netanyahu “reschedules” his speech, makes sure it never happens and hopes no one ever brings it up again:
Probably Won’t happen
Odds Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer gets canned: 3 to 1
Probably will happen.
Odds Dermer moves back to Florida: 5 to 1
Won’t happen.
Dermer runs the Republican Jewish Coalition within three months:
Won’t happen
standing ovations Netanyahu will receive in 60-minute speech: 60
25 is about right. Less than last time (28).
number of props Netanyahu will use during speech:
0
times Netanyahu refers to “the insatiable crocodile of militant Islam“:
0
Netanyahu brings an “insatiable crocodile of militant Islam” with him as a prop:
0
times Netanyahu says, “Iran is a fanatic regime that pledges to wipe Israel off the map”:
0
times Netanyahu says, “Israel is committed to just and lasting two-state solution”:
He Won’t.
Odds the following will be thanked during the speech:
John Boehner: Yes
Chris Kyle: No.
Ted Cruz: Probably not.
Tom Cruise: No
Carnival Cruise Lines: No.
Barack Obama: Probably not.
Time within which Netanyahu will say Iran will have a nuclear weapon:
He won’t.
color of John Boehner’s tie on the Congressional dais:
Blue: N0
White: N0
Blue and White: No
Red, White and Blue: N0