Chemi Shalev of Haaretz and Daniel Levy agree about the likely outcome of the Israeli elections. Rightwing Likud and the center-left Zionist Union will form a coalition. Levy explains that they will do so because the Arab List can’t be included in the governing coalition.
My assessment (current polls, no responsibility whatsoever) Bibi goes home, Herzog heads national unity, perhaps with rotation with Likud
Levy at the European CFR says this will come to pass because “the parties supported by the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel have been traditionally deemed unworthy coalition partners (a real Achilles heel of Israeli democracy and its lack of inclusivity).”
Three principal variations on coalition composition suggest themselves.
1. A Netanyahu-led narrow, rightist government. This would see the Prime Minister stay in power with his more natural right-wing and religious allies forming a governing block with the Jewish Home Party of Naftali Bennett, the party of outgoing Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman, albeit a much diminished force, with the traditional ultra-Orthodox parties of Shas and the United Torah Judaism.But to get a majority of 61 seats, Netanyahu would also have to win over his former Likud colleague and now rival, Moshe Kahlon. It would be a prospect Kahlon is not enthusiastic about, and would likely exacerbate many of Israel’s problems with the international community, including with Israel’s closest allies. …
2. A Herzog-led narrow, non-rightist coalition. This still looks extremely tricky and perhaps impossibly heterogeneous cobble. If Herzog and his potential allies were willing to work with the joint Arab List (a joint list of the three parties that have garnered the Palestinian-Israeli vote in recent elections, currently getting at least a dozen seats in the polls) whether as a formal part of a coalition or supporting the government with a set of understandings from the outside (a kind of confidence and supply arrangement) then the task would be easier. But the parties supported by the Palestinian Arab citizens of Israel have been traditionally deemed unworthy coalition partners (a real Achilles heel of Israeli democracy and its lack of inclusivity). Barring an arrangement with the Joint Arab List, Herzog would somehow have to bring together the centrist Yair Lapid and his anti-clerical bent together with the ultra-Orthodox and the soft right of Moshe Kahlon, together with the secular party Meretz (or, alternatively, Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party). The Zionist camp, Lapid, Meretz, Kahlon, Shas, and United Torah Judaism together would pass the 61 coalition threshold but it would be a remarkable feat to pull off. Only if Herzog can build around a 4-plus seat margin over Likud, might it give the sense of a popular mandate to form such a coalition and to persuade the constituent parts to sign up.
3. A Grand Coalition. The third and perhaps most likely option is a national unity coalition. That would see a coalition based around the Likud and Zionist camp, most likely led by Netanyahu although possibly on the basis of a rotation. The coalition numbers would then be filled out by a combination of Lapid, Kahlon and perhaps Lieberman and/or ultra-Orthodox. Labour would insist on excluding the Jewish Home and Yishai’s Kahanists, while Likud would make the same demand vis-à-vis Meretz. The Joint Arab List would likely be excluded from all sides. But even a grand coalition would be a hard sell within the respective Likud and Labour movements.
Again: “The Joint Arab List would likely be excluded from all sides.” I.e., Israel is a Jewish state, and Jewish parties make up the government, even when Palestinians make up nearly 20 percent of the population. Jim Crow. Not to be a doomsayer, but… Levy says there won’t be any real change in peace negotiations:
On the Palestinian front neither of the two main blocks have come up with anything resembling a coherent programmatic plan. Herzog has suggested he would work with the Egyptians to re-launch peace talks with the Palestinians. But the Zionist camp has also defined Israel’s problem as more one of image and reputation than the occupation itself and policy substance, which suggests more investment will be made in making Israel appear better rather than definitively grappling with the occupation issue itself. The choice would seem to be between a doubling down on existing settlement and occupation policy, paralysis, or an attempt at some forward movement that would likely fall well short of a comprehensive deal and de-occupation. A centre-left government could pursue unilateral options alongside attempts at negotiations with the Palestinians and would likely be less provocative in the settlement arena, in withholding PA taxes, and in other punitive measures….If Herzog does become Prime Minister, the challenge for the international community will be to translate good will into meaningful change, something that Herzog’s government will not automatically embrace. And of course much will depend on what strategies the Palestinians themselves pursue.
Journalist Tal Schneider formerly of Maariv agrees with Levy. Here she is talking with Ori Nir of Peace Now about a candidates’ forum a few days ago. In two hours of candidate statements, the word peace was only mentioned near the very end, and that by Ayman Odeh of the Arab List. But “peace” used to be everywhere in elections, and in all the party slogans, Ori Nir says.
And Schneider explains how rightwing Israeli public opinion is [minute 23]:
Because of the war during the summer… Israeli people … they’re not looking at this Palestinian state as a state at peace with Israel…. It’s sad to day, but this is the reality right now. When you see the neighboring countries [Egypt, Syria, Kurds, Isis]… I think at best people are happy that the Palestinians are not rioting… Peace is not mentioned here on a regular basis anyways. And it will take a leader or something else in order to bring it back into the discourse. I don’t really see that happening in the near future. Because I feel like even if Herzog is elected and is the prime minister, and he is trying to change the discourse, you need a very vast public support to do something. And I don’t see the Israeli public right now supporting anything.
Last January one of the IDF companies that was based near Gaza said that they were pulling out. The people who lived near by went crazy and the thought that they would be at the mercy of the terra tunnels (cuz they’d been whipped into a frenzy by their government.) Th defense people said they did not have enough money to keep the troops on duty there. That same week the government transfered 70,000,000 shekels from the defense budget to the settlers.
Some day the gravy train will end.
How freaking depressing…
I liked Gideon Levy’s musings much better:
“…What better option is there for the Israeli voter who can no longer bear the occupation in the territories and the ultranationalism within Israel, of the ruse that Israel is both Jewish and democratic, of the injustices of present-day Zionism, and who perhaps has reached the conclusion that the two-state solution is dead? Who will they vote for?
Are there many other party heads as impressive, eloquent and refreshing as Ayman Odeh? Are there many other MKs as outstanding as Ahmad Tibi, Jamal Zahalka, Dov Khenin and even, yes, even Haneen Zoabi? Is there another party that does not demand “support for Israel Defense Forces soldiers” at the start of every pointless war?
If the overwhelming majority of Arabs vote for them, they will, for the first time, enter the heart of the political dialogue in Israel – to the annoyance of nearly all the other parties.
If many Jews also vote for it, we can begin to speak of a “game changer,” and perhaps even of a good omen.
Just imagine: The Joint List is the third largest party in the Knesset. The coalition belongs to Netanyahu, Herzog and Yair Lapid. Odeh is selected leader of the opposition…..
The prime minister is obligated to brief him on security and diplomatic matters, “no less than once a month,” by law. The law requires him to address the Knesset after every speech by the premier. Foreign heads of state meet with him and listen to his views. As a symbol of government, he is protected by the Shin Bet security service. Perhaps for the first time in its history, Israel has a true leader of opposition.
A few stereotypes will be shattered in a single, not-imaginary act that might also usher in a deep change in consciousness.
Odeh could surprise us yet, as he already surprised many Israelis who were not even aware of the existence of the combinations “Arab and impressive,” “Palestinian and charming.” His party must get a lot of votes for this process to begin. His friends must support him and many Jews must choose the Israeli ANC, which could yet prove it has what it takes to prevent the establishment of a second apartheid state, the apartheid state of the Land of Israel.”
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.645750
Yesh Atid and Kulanu, the two supposedly “centrist” parties have both ruled out being with Arabs. Without an Arab party, Labor has no way out. Lieberman is never going to go with them.
Labor needs Likud but Likud does not need Labor.
Bibi isn’t going to go anywhere. Nobody can replace him from Likud. Shalev is just speaking drivel, channeling his own wishful thinking.
If Likud ends up with Labor it’ll be beacause Bibi wants to. If he says no, Labor has no other way out. Bibi does.
Edit:
Just to illustrate. Take the most pro-Labor polls out there in recent days:
http://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/13/smithreshet-bet-radio-poll-zionist-union-25-likud-21-the-joint-arab-list-13-bayit-yehudi-11-yesh-atid-11/
4-seat lead. But take a look at the coalition math at the end. The numbers in brackets is the current seats. So again: even when you cherry-pick the best pro-Labor polls, the net result is that the far-right get better results than in the last Knesset.
Tell me again how Labor is going to set the agenda.
Israeli calls for nuclear strikes on Iran and Germany:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/op-ed-calls-on-israel-to-nuke-germany-iran/
Hurr durr, who was the danger to world peace again?
Herzog was grilled at the Saban Conference, by Haim Saban himself, about how his numbers didn’t look like they could add up, right – left, and he was fascinating to watch and listen to. The gist was that it is a mistake to look at the parties by a simple left-right divide, as we tend to in the US. It is coalition building, a process we don’t generally use. Minister-slots or other promises to keep are horse-traded for support. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qyhnHkLdl8 [well worth the watch for those who don’t yet know him, as I didn’t,]
So I see it as a multi-step process: first the election, then the designation by the President of one party leader to seek to form a coalition, then a coalition-building-horse-trading free-for-all, with the possibility that the designee gets changed mid-course, as happened last time.
As to the Arab Parties, I understand they also decline to take minister slots, maybe as a pre-emptive move, in light of the unlikelihood of them being offered. But they’ve united this time in seeking a change at the top, and are willing to vote their seats for new leadership, a unifying, get-out-the-vote message for them, so I’m not sure whether the past treatment of United Arab Parties as irrelevant is indelibly written as applying this time. They are 13 seats or so that only require “anybody but Netanyahu (or presumably Bennett or Lieberman).” Those votes will apparently be there for a change at the top, with or without minister slots, and without participation in the governing coalition, offered or accepted. Herzog was generous in his description of the Arab Palestinians as comprising every Christian and Muslim sect with deep cultural diversity, blunt in his belief that coalition building begins with respect for each faction.
To me, the government needs to shake off the dismal failures of the hard right, of Netanyahu trying to avoid being outflanked by Bennett and Lieberman on his right, the culture based on fear of terrorists, fear of Iran, racism rampant. Those people need to be disempowered, just as the Neocon grip on Washington needs to end.
Kulanu could do that by joining the Zionist Front. Can that happen?
Here’s a recent interview of Moshe Kahlon of Kulanu, on i24. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5qRbCvw5SQ
In it he sounds entirely consistent with Herzog. He entered government to make social change. He succeeded famously slashing the cost of cell phone service to 1/20th of what it had been (some privileged monopolist got a poke in the eye?). He then left Likud, his Sephardic home, because, according to the interview, it abandoned the social purpose he’d entered government for. Lucy, the interviewer, digs into his own Sephardic roots, could you possibly betray Likud by joining Herzog, burning your bridges for future Likud leadership, abandoning your Sephardic home in an Israel that is us vs them, Arabs vs Jews, Ashkenazi vs Sephardim, and he emphatically answers that it is time to put those divisions behind us, that he does not feel discriminated against, that his party’s platform of solving social issues will go to whichever coalition commits to achieving them.
I read it that he is in play for Herzog, especially a Herzog that is intensely pragmatic about solving the problems of the various factions. One can look at Kahlon’s move to abandon Likud as the beginning of the fall of Netanyahu’s Likud.
What if Herzog put together a vast coalition, including both Yesh Atid, Kulanu, from the right, the Arab parties, and a passel of smaller factions with not-entirely-inconsistent priorities. A vast, diverse coalition dedicated to change, to social progress, to peace, security through resolving issues, instead of “mowing the grass,” to mending Israel’s relationship with the US, to restoring Israel’s place in the international community after the destruction wrought by Netanyahu-Likud-Neoconism?
The electorate seems so feckless contemplating more leadership from the old crowd. That trajectory has run out of steam. A vote for change could be the big message at the ballot box. Then Herzog will be negotiating from a position of strength. Netanyahu, suddenly turned weak by his excessive display in Congress, its stupidity resonating in the electorate, not as merits for Bibi, but as demerits for entrusting Israel’s future to someone who would make a public display of his ability to manipulate stupid US representatives in front of their own electorate. Yes, Bibi, you’ve shown the world how stupid and corrupt the Congress is, how easily you can move them. Thank you very much. Here’s the door.