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The War of Ideas in the Middle East
As always a clever guy, even if on the other side of the divide, is more interesting than a sloganeering hate-obsessed fool. This is of course a conspiracy theory par excellence - that is, it adds masterminding and collusion to what may be an evolutionary process driven by many forces. “The truth” could be of course far more banal and random in nature, but for a person who is both an academic, an observer-like capacity, and a participant, with deep emotional attachment to the issue, this cannot be satisfactory.
Apparently, when it comes to wishful thinking “the sky is the limit”.
If only you guys had considered the scope and depth of Israel`s trade with the same meticulous attitude that every miniscule step by the most minor body in the most restricted way is followed here... For instance, in Canada, the focus here, prime- minister Harper is one of the closets friends of Israel.
American: "Even israel itself has to be boycotted". In general, the advanced and global-connected way that the Israel operates now (as all the advanced economies) makes boycotting it impractical. If you really want to boycott Israel then throw away half of your gadgets – they are likely to include components made in Israel (possibly through Wall-St. registered companies).
This is NOT for publication - private to Annie Robbins:
Annie, I understand the "yawn", I also don`t enjoy writing this type of comments but does not what this guy Kalithea wrote desrves exactly this type of answer?
“One day what they unleash will come back”
I think it would be more relevant and actual to turn this proposition around. What the neighboring countries had wished for Israel and tried hard to accomplish have come back to bite them. The unleashed terror on Israel, sometimes even sanctioned by fatwas, had found its way back into Arab countries. Likewise with the commerce embargos (designed to ruin Israel economically, moves to create chaos in it and the general wish to see Israel get disintegrated – they are all coming to haunt Arabia now. That`s where the moral of the story lies not the other way around
TovioS, I don`t think your reading of the situation is realistic. The anti-Assad forces are too deep into it and Israel, its interests and acts (of miniscule relevance to the internal conflict itself), is a complete sideline show for them. Turkey is indeed unhappy about the Israeli acts - it hopes to be the main benefactor of the post-Assad era and wants no other hands there – but it is too much tied to the US-West camp there now. What seems likely is that the gradual (and seemingly inevitable) disintegration of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis, will strengthen the US-Saudi -Gulf emirates-Jordan (and even Egypt) camp
Real simply: From Israel`s point of view Iran has to be confronted before it gets nukes – almost everybody in Israel sees that as too scary to live with. A direct attack is too hard to accomplish due to a host of difficulties (including the globally unpalatable aspect of Israel being seen as an aggressor in attacking Iran). Critically, whether the US will do the job (by its own calculations or due to the threat to its Arab allies and to Israel) is not clear.
This huge existential dilemma for Israel (and other worried parties) may have a “Syrian solution”. The Iranians and Nassaralah announced that they will not let Assad to fall, which means they will be dragged into a final conflict over Syria (with possible intervention there of the US and the West, this time with a clear excuse and case) BEFORE they have the nukes.
Suppose that 90% of terror acts have been committed by immigrants to the US from El Dorado and none from Atlantis. Would you still rationally expect the authorities to spend the same efforts (and in our times, a much restricted budget) on both groups?
There got to be a trade-off between protecting citizens from falling victims to such attacks (they are people too) and the sensitivities of people under surveillance.
The “Palestinian issue” was always merely an instrument vs. Israel from the Arab world`s point of view. What have changed are the political and military interests. While before Israel was the arch-target, pro-US Arab countries now look around and see that their friends are Israel`s and foes – likewise (e.g. and prominently the US in the former group and in the latter mainly: Iran, Hezbollah within Lebanon and the neo-Ottoman hegemonic ambitions of Turkey - just split from its alliance with Israel). Moreover, for some countries, e.g. Jordan, Israel has even turned into an insurance policy. This is all in a nutshell but it still tells the main story - a regional re-configuration and a goals` re-prioritization in the Arab world. This is what history evolution is about and Europe, for instance, have had a lot of that in just its recent history).
One Fund Palestine? That is already on for 65 years now, paid by a host of UN agencies and other numerous donors
"Israel`s complacency"
Israel can never afford the luxury of being complacent. As for the Sunni-Shia struggle and the Syria upheaval it is not clear at all that it makes things worse for Israel
Don`t get me wrong- I am not playing silly triumphalism here. Israel objective position has always made the odds stacked against it. What I am trying to point out that Israel has made it abundantly clear that it will nevertheless fight back and history shows that it was able to extract real prices from those who went after it. In all cases until now it began rosy for the assailers but changed tack later
Sure, he plays the system and is no amateur, but that only means that Israel has got yet another “fight” on its (busy) schedule – need to be play by its own conditions and rules. As always the “successes” of the challenger come first (as, prominently, with Nasser, Arafat, Hezbollah and even Iran) and it is only later when things begin to cut the bones. That is, in short, the “story” called Israel
Indeed, he is playing hard ball but it is possible that he is reaching limits there. He milked the anti-Israel posture as much as he could but his dream to become the patron of the Palestinians/Arabs/Muslims vs. Israel cannot go too far. He is essentially an American client, has a huge project on his plate with the Kurds, which is explosive and can go wrong in many ways and also faces a troubling uncertainty in Syria. Chances are that his fantasies for “regional grandeur” will be checked, even if it will take some time, by the harsh realities of the region.
The “I hate Arabs” shouts are fortunately rare but do exist. There is however something in the world of humans called reciprocity and it applies not only in the political sphere but almost in any other one. We have to remember that an “I hate Israelis/Jews” attitude and talk is almost the norm for decades and decades (predating “the occupation” by a lot). This have had its ineviatble effects and indeed, given the depth and intensity of the latter, it is a tribute to Israelis that it is not much worse.
That`s because while apartheid is a good propaganda catch-phrase the analogy to Israel does not apply. In S. Africa a small minority used others as laborers and personal servants – in effect living off their work. The latter is an irrelevancy in Israel and as for relative population sizes, the Jews in Israel (indeed even in the extended are of Israel plus the West-Bank) are anything but a small minority
And then iv, v, vi,.. who counts?
It seems that all past heroic vocabulary will be hijacked in the fight against Israel in distorted ways (and thus in particular desecrating them): Gulags (does Israel have a network of slave camps in a remote horrible region?); Resistance by Hezbollah (is Lebanon under occupation?); The occupied land (the West-Bank belonged to Jordan which after the war relinquished its claim on it), and so on and on. Won`t work because the contrasts are too obvious
The Irish have always been “religiously” anti-Israel. This has now become surrealistic with this move - in the midst of a “system collapse”, in which they need all the help in the world from anybody, they threaten boycotts. You don`t know whether to laugh or cry
The almost total convergence of US and Israel political lines is not that so hard to understand: In this dangerous world the US must have some real allies and not least so in the important Mid-East region. As the situation stands now the Arab world is in a miserable state and cannot fulfill that function – it is so both in how countries there conduct their own affairs and how they tend to blame others for all the problems. Apart from some Gulf emirates the US practically gave up on all of them as reliable and effective partners. Turkey competes with Israel on the “good friend” status but it is tilting too hard towards Islamism and autocratic ruling style by Erdogan. This leaves Israel as the key real ally and hence the Gallop results, Obama`s attitude and likewise the entire political and military establishment in the US (there are other factors too that connects Israel and the US and they serve to fortify the above). As the world gets even more dangerous for the US the value of real (and effective!) allies will only increase.
If you say to your shrink “If I do this I am damned and also so if I do that” he would answer: why not consider a third option. Which is in this case: the 2.5SS – 2.5 state solution. Obama went from Israel to Jordan, which is no coincidence, they are third leg here. They once owned the Wes-bank and should re/co-own it with Israel - Jews there voting in Israel and Arabs in Jordan under some “confederation” form between Israel and Jordan and the West-Bank (Gaza reverts to Egypt, to which it once belonged). The Jordanian king is under pressure, from inside and outside (Syria upheaval) and needs both the US and Israel to survive and that could be an incentive for him. Think “out of the box”, as they say.
Cynicism apart, Israel is the only place in the region where minorities are not in existential danger. Apartheid is a powerful slogan but the above situation is a reality and in the end reality always defeats slogans.
This is no cracks – just cherry-picking. If you scan the entire world in such a way you can see “signs” for, or against, any cause you want to support, or oppose. There is apparently no limit to where people can go with wishful thinking…
It is interesting to note that prominent Jews with Zionist background, whose anti-Israeli views have been used as a tool against Israel in a MAJOR way, later find their way back to “the camp”. Beinart, whose views created meaningful problems to Israel because of his stature, joins here Judge Goldstone (whose findings on the Gaza operation created a huge problem for Israel since his committee had an official UN seal) who later retracted, the historian Benny Morris, who was for a long time a darling of Anti-Zionists and was recently blocked by Islamist bodies in Britain from giving a lecture in Oxford due to his pro-Israeli statements, and even Roger Cohen from the NYT appeared recently to change tack.
So what else is new? Nobody can be expected to retain a powerful position indefinitely. The point is though that AIPAC may not be that critical anymore given that the political establishment (both parties) is already sold on Israel for a host of reasons including AIPAC persuasion efforts over a very long time. In politics you can become a victim of your success and that may be happening to AIPAC now.
I have a different reading of this all: it is like what happened in France (the Le Penn party), Greece and now Italy (the comedian`s success), namely “anti-system” and protest parties are grabbing votes. It is a crisis of democracy and market economy in Western countries and has its deeper-rooted causes that are far more dominant than the particular local reasons cited (in each case). It is not "Zionism in disarray" but something much bigger and what it could do may make people far less cheerful than the "fools` paradise" projected here.
"Let`s see what are the odds for "peace"..."
I agree with you putting “peace” between quotation marks. The “peace plans” Israel is usually offered look (if you read the not so fine print) not so much “peace with it” but rather “peace without it” (in particular the return of 7 million "refugees" of 3-4 generations, which in another 20 years will likely rise to 20 million). So, how much chances of success that should have?
What a humane vision, but also a page taken from another era - finishing off Jews in a "camp" en masse is not exactly compatible with today`s conditions of war asymmetry. If you happened to have a couple of hundred nukes and capabilities to launch them from mountains, air and sea then no matter how small you are you can ensure that things can hardly be as one-sided as they were in the past – and swiftly so.
The obsession with Zionism especially by the Arab world, despite its many and infinitely more crucial problems, would rather be remembered there as a colossal miscalculation. At some point people there will begin to add up the devastating prices it brought on the Arab world, completely unnecessarily, and people will refuse to believe that such a negligible issue was able to cause all that (and who knows how worse it may still get).
Some people sitting comfortably on their armchairs in other places want to see “action”, because they think it will hurt Israel and advance the Palestinians cause. But think about the actual human beings that are expected to do that and what it will do to them. In reality (and I am also reporting from the general arena here – from the co-ethnic city of Jerusalem) a violence fatigue has descended on both Israelis and Palestinians. It is not just bitter memories from the not so distant past but also the abnormal level of recent violence in the general region (for years now) - people are able to see what the real costs are and that it is not just fairy-tale heroism.
Some people sitting comfortably on their armchairs in other places want to see “action”, because they think it will hurt Israel and advance the Palestinians cause. But think about the actual human beings that are expected to do that and what it will do to them. In reality (and I am also reporting from the general arena here – from the co-ethnic city of Jerusalem) a violence fatigue has descended on both Israelis and Palestinians. It is not just bitter memories from the not so distant past but also the abnormal level of recent violence in the general region (for years now) - people are able to see what the real costs are and that is not just fairy-tale heroism. So those outsiders who are eager to watch some real blood spilling drama for a “great cause” will have to search elsewhere.
Just a minute: why don`t I see here the other relevant stat type – most likely the one that influenced the State. Dept. decision- namely, how many times in the past it turned out that the Palestinians have jumped into conclusions without bothering to carry out a thorough check just because it seemed to them a good piece of propaganda
Ya, let`s BDS them all. Everybody we don`t like. Long live peace and understanding.
Are people here naïve or just pretend to be so? Can anybody really believe that all those people are pandering to a super-natural force called the “Zionist lobby”. What about a far simpler explanation: they actually believe in it! Not just simpler but logical too: they see what happens in the entire Arab world and draw conclusions.
You can call the Israeli-Palestinian setting anyway you want but the S. African scene of a small minority governing a country where the majority works for them, in mines, factories or as home-servants, it is not.
Why should that be so surprising that Jews in the US address this problematic issue of Israel? It is caught in a truly hard dilemma – abandon the West-Bank and risk own security or remain and deal with a local population that lacks full political rights. How to resolve that satisfactorily requires all the good will in the world (less so though the bad will)
Jabara assessment is wrong. I don`t think many in the US still believe that Israel makes much of a difference in regard to the relations with the Arab or the Moslem world. Watching the chaos in so many Arabs states and in Pakistan, all for local reasons, it is clear that the minds of people there are focused elsewhere. And then there are numerous other potential friction points as well as global geo-political issues that are of a much higher priority in Washington. But sadly all that would make little difference for people who got obsessed with Israel and see everything through that prism (despite the huge prices that have been paid for it by the Arab world, entirely unnecessarily, over decades now)
Absolutely his junior. Israel has come to be entirely dependent on the US - all military actions of it require a US pre-approval. These are the realities of things in today`s conditions (was not so in the past) which de-facto makes the US defense secretary Israel`s too
One key point people on this thread fail to grasp is that secretary of defense for the US id already automatically the one for Israel. This is not a product of Israeli manipulations – that would have never achieved even a fraction of that – but a total convergence of interests. That is why there is no difference in this regard between Democrats and Republicans – the entire political establishment of the US sees things the same way. So Hagel, or anybody else as secretary of defense, even Obama, or any other President, will act in the very same way. This is by now a political fait a complete, as the entire recent history proves.
It is the umpteenth time that people predicts the undoing of Israel. It is a favorite pastime for some, portrayed to be “just around the corner”. Remember the second Intifada when Israel was awash with suicide bombers - nobody could see a way out of that. Or, Abdul-Nasser amassing hundreds of thousands of soldiers near Israel (at that time, much smaller in both pop and area) declaring that “the end” is near. Fast forward to now: Iran made Israel`s "wiping out" a major goal. This is not over yet but compare how it looks now with only few years ago, when it projected confidence, ambitions of regional- hegemony and had strong Arab allies with it. Well.
Those outside the West-Bank, wherever they still live in squalor 65 years after they arrived must be an Arab country. So whose shame is that?
One big mistake that people do is to consider Israel in isolation. It is not the holocaust that is its main shield anymore but how low the Arab world (the “opposite side”) scores in most people eyes in just about any segment you can think of (modernity, women rights, democracy, free speech, bigotry, education and sure enough the proneness to violence). That is even likely true in regard to the Palestinians in the West-Bank - a love-hate (or perhaps hate-like) attitude towards Israel. Don`t like it too much but more afraid from the alternatives (which they nightly watch on TV, from Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, Libya, Bahrain, Yemen, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt,….).
You can turn the argument around and claim that the fact that the Arab world was not ready (or able psychologically) to accept the State of Israel in its midst created a sense of existential threat for Israelis, fortified by many violent conflicts, which pushed it to military paths and the development of an advanced arms industry. The export part was an inevitable part of it since a small country as Israel could not possibly sustain financially the cutting-edge position it felt it needs without that. This is a sad sequence of events but you can see where the real blame lies.
Well, that`s all about causality and timeline, namely what happened when and what brought what. If you ignore that than anything can be challenged
But why phrase it that way, namely what will quell rocket firing or what actions will increase that (and it is obvious that counteracts will achieve the latter – no need for learned studies here) and not simply ask: why there are rocket firing (and mortars) at all (especially after Israel left Gaza and did so despite meaningful internal strife)? Turning the logic upside down already misses the main point.
Not last or before last and they will never abandon anything. The way “main agendas” shift in our era you can rest assured that in just a year or two such “grand plans” will look ancient history
“The Jewish state end” prediction accompanies Israel since its birth. In its early days, with a population of around a million or two, a narrow belly on the coastline where most people live, a relatively weak economy and in particular no high-tech capabilities plus a monolith of Arab countries that looked placid and free to deal with Israel as its main target, it surely looked more threateningly so. Granted, even with all the dramatic changes in all of those regards Israel`s existence is still precarious – dictated by its objective conditions - so such expressed fears are understandable and hence also now and then expressed even by key figures. There is really nothing new here and of course a heated period as election times is likely to bring everything out. In the essence though, “the show” just goes on.
Have you all noticed how childish this argumentation has become? It is obvious that a lobby for a country, which is called by many “the Jewish state” with no offence intended (after all that is how it sees itself) will include (many) Jews and revolve around Jewish concepts and values.. What can be more obvious than that? It is about a fight on the hearts and minds of the American people and as long as it is done lawfully that is the stuff that democracy is made of.
What about adding a similar request in regard to Obama himself in regard to his military actions, as the use of drones for instance? (Though a similar demand of punitive sanctions would hardly apply since that would be the US acting against itself)
With all due respect this conspiracy-like theory does not stand up to logic. Israel`s interests are far better served by a quiet West-Bank than otherwise. Some people, writing from distance, are so immersed into the Palestinian dimension of the Israeli realm that they forget that Israel essentially runs as a normal country and as such has ordinary needs and wishes. Importantly, Israel needs a peaceful Wes-Bank for not being distracted from the central objective of keeping the economy on a good track, which is not a small thing in these turbulent times in the world – particularly keeping outside investors (which are many in the hi-tech areas) calm. even more basically, Intifadas can`t be pre-calibrated and can easily do more damage than you expect (and Israeli leaders are never callous about that). So I don`t buy the speculations here otherwise.
Well, it might be a bit more complex than that since there is no way to isolate Israel from broader contexts. Primarily, there is an exasperation of Christians (and the West in general) with Moslems in general and (most) Arab countries in particular. Israel, perceived as being at the front of this “clash of civilization” divide, and hence exposed more intensely to it, benefits from that - there have been attempts to separate the Israel-Palestinian conflict from that wider scene but it cannot go too far with the increasing recent mayhem in constantly increasing number of Moslem countries – and since this is not going to change any time soon the pressure on Israel (to protect the particular Moslem constituency it is confronting) is unlikely to increase a lot. Then, given that the entire Mid-East region is currently turbulent there is little appetite by outsiders to create more of that and anyway most of the political energy in that regard is already consumed by the present considerable upheaval (some of which are pretty intractable too).