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Trump is losing the Israel vote almost as bad as he is losing in New York

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Republican candidate Donald Trump’s campaign team has aggressively sought to win votes from Americans living overseas in Israel, but the latest polls taken of the Jewish population show Trump trailing far behind Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton.

The gap is so wide that the figures are almost as bad for Trump as those in Clinton’s home state of New York where she benefits from a 25 point lead.

Yet Israel, unlike New York, typically leans Republican.

Moreover, Trump has campaigned harder in Israel than any other U.S. presidential candidate with three offices in Israel and one campaign office in a settlement in the West Bank, while Clinton has no staff working to get votes in Israel. And still, polls suggest Trump would lose Israel by a landslide.

When asked which candidate is “preferable” to Israel’s interest, 42 percent of Jewish-Israelis responded Clinton, compared to 26.5 who said Trump. An even larger number said Clinton will win the race. Fifty-five percent believe Clinton will be the next president, ahead of the 25 percent of Israelis who said Trump is the likely winner.

The poll was conducted jointly by the Israeli Democracy Institute and Tel Aviv University and administered days before the Washington Post released the tape of Trump boasting about sexually assaulting women. Six hundred Israelis participated, although the survey did not indicate if any of the respondents were dual Israeli-American citizens.

Reuters reported in May results of a similar poll conducted among Jewish-Israelis that also did not note if the respondents were American citizens. At that time Clinton led with nine points, meaning she has more than doubled her support.

Securing votes from Americans in Israel is more vital to Trump than Clinton. GOP operatives in the group Republicans Overseas Israel have explained it is widely thought that many of the American voters are registered in the key battleground state of Florida where Clinton currently holds a three-point lead over Trump according to most polls. Among Orthodox Jews, a Florida study commissioned by the Clinton team found Trump is the top candidate. Israel has more Orthodox Jews than America, so all of the specs should point to a Trump victory in this overseas ballot race. Instead, he is losing, and badly.

If Republican operatives in Israel are correct and a large number of Americans in Israel are registered in Florida, early votes and registration drives also point to a Clinton win. When compared to this date in the election cycle of 2012, Republican early voter ballots out numbered Democrats by two points more than today. Voter registration numbers also confirm a favoring of Clinton over Trump with 177,000 ballots requested by Democrats, compared to 42,000 requested from the GOP.

Thus, a win in Israel could have tipped the scales in Florida for Trump, but it probably will not.

What is noticeable about the Trump campaign in Israel versus his outreach in the U.S., is that he continues to be supported by all leaders in the party’s overseas club. Trump has paid staff in Israel, Clinton does not. The past week has seen dozens of Republicans renounce Trump in the U.S., but anecdotal reporting from local Israeli media has shows Trump is losing steam on the ground among rank and file Republicans, particularly women.

Likely in response to the latest polls, Trump tweeted repeatedly over the weekend that the election, pollings, and polling places are rigged. He has not yet mentioned the Israeli polls, which show similar losses.


Allison Deger

Allison Deger is the Assistant Editor of Follow her on twitter at @allissoncd.

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10 Responses

  1. Krauss on October 18, 2016, 10:38 am

    This shouldn’t be surprising. Clinton will be the most slavish president to Israel since.. well, Bush. The fact that it wasn’t long ago speaks volumes of how spoiled they are(thanks to donors).

    Trump’s instincts are more about making allies pay their share fair and so on. Even if he has carefully left out Israel out of that list, it nevertheless is something they are very sensitive about, not least because they know they are very dependent on American foreign aid.

    If Bernie had been the Democratic nominee, you can bet that Trump would have been coasting to a landslide now in their polls.

    • Ellen on October 18, 2016, 2:41 pm

      Exactly. Trump speaks isolationism. Hillary is owned. She is a slave. That is safe for the status quo.

      • Sibiriak on October 18, 2016, 8:24 pm

        Trump is a fake-populist.

        Cf. “Donald Trump, After Blasting Iraq War, Picks Top Iraq Hawk as Security Adviser”

        Donald Trump named former CIA director and extremist neoconservative James Woolsey his senior adviser on national security issues on Monday. Woolsey, who left the CIA in 1995, went on to become one of Washington’s most outspoken promoters of U.S. war in Iraq and the Middle East.

        As such, Woolsey’s selection either clashes with Trump’s noninterventionist rhetoric — or represents a pivot towards a more muscular, neoconservative approach to resolving international conflicts.

        Trump has called the Iraq War “a disaster.”

        Woolsey, by contrast, was a key member of the Project for the New American Century — a neoconservative think tank largely founded to encourage a second war with Iraq. Woolsey signed a letter in 1998 calling on Clinton to depose Saddam Hussein and only hours after the 9/11 attacks appeared on CNN and blamed the attacks on Iraq. Woolsey has continued to insist on such a connection despite the complete lack of evidence to support his argument. He also blames Iran.

        Weeks before the invasion of Iraq, Woolsey called for broader war in the Middle East, saying “World War IV” was already underway.

        Woolsey has also put himself in a position to profit from the wars he has promoted. He has served as vice president of Pentagon contracting giant Booz Allen, and as chairman of Paladin Capital Group, a private equity fund that invests in national security and cybersecurity.

        He chairs the leadership council at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a hawkish national security nonprofit, and is a venture partner with Lux Capital Management, which invests in emerging technologies like drones, satellite imaging, and artificial intelligence.

        Woolsey went on CNN on Monday and said that he was principally motivated to support Trump because of his plans to expand U.S. military spending.

        Trump gave a speech last week in which he proposed dramatic expansions of the Army and Marines, and hundred-billion-dollar weapons systems for the Navy and Air Force. He offered no justification — aside from citing a few officials who claimed they wanted more firepower.

        Woolsey stood by Trump’s proposal on Monday.

        “I think the problem is her budget,” Woolsey said of Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton. “She is spending so much money on domestic programs — including ones that we don’t even have now, and the ones we have now are underfunded — I think there can be very little room for the improvements in defense and intelligence that have to be made.”

        Woolsey has previously called for NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden to be “hanged by the neck until he’s dead, rather than merely electrocuted.”

    • Lillian Rosengarten on October 19, 2016, 12:10 pm

      I do believe that the US will sooner than later lead the EU in mobilizing international pressure to end Zionism, a state founded on an ethnic nationalist ideology. The process to end the racist regime is moving forward. Hillary is neither owned or a slave. These words create fear and reinforces the status quo.

      • Sibiriak on October 20, 2016, 2:23 am

        Lillian Rosengarten: Hillary is neither owned or a slave

        True. She is a free, self-determined Christian Zionist.

  2. Yossarian22 on October 18, 2016, 1:36 pm

    Not sure how trustworthy this poll is if it doesn’t distinguish between Israeli-American citizens who are able to vote and Israelis without American citizenship.

    • Ellen on October 18, 2016, 2:47 pm

      No polls are trustworthy. None. But this poll is an indication and considering the results, a rather strong indication.

      • Yossarian22 on October 18, 2016, 3:44 pm

        Ellen: Polls can vary wildly in quality. And a poll that doesn’t even ensure that the respondents are legally able to participate in the election seems like a huge methodological problem.

  3. RoHa on October 19, 2016, 10:01 pm

    That headline should be “Trump is losing the Israel vote almost as badly as he is losing in New York”.

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