A lot of people are scratching their heads over Trump’s recent moves distancing himself from Israel. He announced that he was pulling troops from Syria, thereby nettling Israel’s friends who counted on him to take on Iran in Syria. Iran, Iran, Iran, say Chuck Schumer, Lindsey Graham, and Bret Stephens. Trump overrode John Bolton, his neoconservative national security adviser, in announcing the withdrawal. Jonathan Tobin writes that Trump just gave the finger to his Jewish voters.
Then Trump held a briefing in Iraq the night after Christmas and complained about all the money we give Israel, exaggerating the sum to $4.5 billion a year.
I think there’s a simple explanation for Trump’s shift. He was counting on his biggest donor, Sheldon Adelson, to deliver the House to him in the midterm elections; and Adelson failed, bigtime. Donald Trump is sore about that.
Remember that in the runup to the election last spring, the transactional president did his part: He tore up the Iran deal and moved the embassy to Jerusalem and installed Adelson’s friend John Bolton as national security adviser– after declining to do all these actions in his first year in office, he saved them for the election year.
What did Trump get for those moves? Bupkus. Yes Sheldon Adelson and his wife Miriam gave upwards of $87 million to the Republican congressional effort, including some $50 million to the Congressional Leadership Fund. More than half that money came in last May, just as the embassy was opened. All to save the House.
And what was the result? The Democrats picked up 40 seats in the House in what the media are calling a “blue tsunami.” Democrats had a huge advantage in raw votes over Republicans. 61 million to 51 million votes, Democrats to Republicans in Congress. Many Dems are even talking about impeachment!
Adelson’s ineffectiveness might be judged by his own state. The 85-year-old casino mogul and his wife gave some $20,000 specifically to a fundraising committee supporting Cresent Hardy, an incumbent Republican congressman in Nevada. Democrat Steve Horsford walloped Cresent Hardy 52 to 44 percent! In fact, three of four congresspeople from Nevada are Democrat.
The Democrats’ sole win by a challenger over a Republican incumbent in the Senate was also Nevada: Jacky Rosen knocked off Republican Senator Dean Heller.
You don’t think Trump noticed all this? Of course he did. Donald Trump is a shrewd man, and he has surely concluded what any gamer would, that Sheldon Adelson’s millions didn’t have the impact in 2018 that they did in 2016, when they helped deliver the White House. Hey, maybe Adelson should have given more for the embassy! He can afford it!
Trump once said that if Marco Rubio got Adelson’s money he would be Sheldon Adelson’s perfect little puppet. Then Trump got Adelson’s money, and he was Adelson’s perfect little puppet for a whole year.
Well things change, and millions don’t mean what they used to. And Trump is surely registering his displeasure.
Of course, come 2020, it’s a whole new ballgame. But right now Trump is clearing the books.
P.S. Adelson’s Birthright millions are also hemmorhaging– young Jews are starting to see the free trip to Israel as toxic.
Disgusting man, Mr. Adelson. How’s his business in China doing?
A speculation – Trump may also be aware of the increasing amount of truth about Israel that is accumulating on the internet outside the controlled mainstream media. For example, here’s an Evangelical Christian (!) who researches history, including the Bible, and who thoroughly debunks the Zionist claim to the land of Palestine.
“Jerusalem Hoax – Jake Morphonios”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pJ63Vzh9n4
At some point Israel’s bubble of lies is going to burst. I’m looking forward to the expression on Nancy Pelosi’s face when she says, “I’m shocked! shocked! to find Israel is ethnically cleansing Palestine!”
Adelson was a big loser indeed at the last mid term elections. All those millions of dollars wasted trying to get votes for Israel. The damage has been done and perhaps it may be too late for the Palestinians where Jerusalem is concerned. Trump delivered what Adelson paid for the last presidential elections.
“He tore up the Iran deal and moved the embassy to Jerusalem.”
My take is a little different on those moves. Trump knows a deal (one state or two, with both, agreeing), in his first term, he would accomplish what no other modern President has… and make him the greatest of them all. Putting Netanyahu in a position he cannot say “No” to him was a necessity for any plan, that both agreed to, to prevail.
Erekat and Abbas failed to understand they needed an American President to ever achieve Palestine, so they spit in his face out of anger and lack of political savvy. That put Trump in the position of having to keep kissing up to prevent being characterized as untrustworthy when the moment of truth came…..aka Obama.
Trump has been candid about his questioning if Netanyahu was open to peace. Now he’s emphasizing the billions and talking about not being a sucker anymore. Where else has America been such a sucker?
Unless Erekat and Abbas figure out what’s unfolding with Trump and endeavor to change the established narrative by reinforcing that peaceful coexistence is the end game, through one state or two, peace activist will continue to be only marginally effective at persuading their political leaders and we’ll be another generation who died trying.
“He tore up the Iran deal and moved the embassy to Jerusalem”
But couldn’t you argue that Trump had reasons of his own for both of the above?
The Iran deal was Obama’s baby, and Trump has always been determined to destroy Obama’s legacy. Sure, Israel was a factor in his decision to withdraw from the Iran deal, as were his buddies in some of the Gulf states, but the whole ‘America does things its way and doesn’t care about international agreements’ thing would definitely appeal to his base.
As for the embassy, yes, this was done to please Israel, but its really no loss to the US – again, this whole ‘we don’t care what anyone else thinks’ thing would play well with Trump voters. And not only is it no loss to the US, you could also argue that it’s no real gain to Israel. It has symbolic value yes, but now that it’s done, it’s one less bargaining chip for the US/Israel.
But if Phil’s theory is correct, surelhy the real lesson is that “Israel” in and of itself is not important in US politics. Israel’s ability to influence politics through wealthy donors is. Trump doesn’t give a toss for Israel. None of them do. Though I’m not sure if Israeli narcissism allows them to see that.