Mondoweiss’s 2020 Election Guide

The Presidential Race

What happens if Joe Biden wins the election? Actually, we need to make that more specific. What happens if Joe Biden wins the election AND becomes President? If you’re a Mondoweiss reader, you probably know his record on Palestine is pretty terrible. He had a consistent pro-Israel voting record in the Senate, he’s bragged about his friendship with Netanyahu, and he’s declared himself a Zionist. He has said that political support for Israel “comes from our gut, moves through our heart, and ends up in our head. It’s almost genetic.” He thinks that conditioning military aid to the apartheid state is a “gigantic mistake” and “absolutely outrageous.” Halie Soifer, of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, has called him the most pro-Israel nominee ever.

When it comes to Palestine, you know what you’re getting with Biden. However, 2020 is not 2008. This might be hard to recall now, but back when Obama beat McCain, there was a sizable chunk of progressives who really believed that Bush’s murderous foreign policy was set to be reversed, if not at least scaled back. Instead we got more troops in Afghanistan, a drone assassination campaign, increased surveillance, the bombing of Libya, and a war on whistleblowers. Obama didn’t even close Gitmo, as he promised on the campaign trail.

U.S. policy toward Israel largely remained the same. There were more public statements about opposing settlement expansion, but these were made amid increased cooperation with the country. Once settlements were constructed, Obama wasn’t prepared to actually do anything about them. The Israeli government repeatedly embarrassed Obama (and Biden) in front of the entire world. There’s a lot of talk about foreign governments intervening in our political system, but most of these allegations pale in comparison to what actually happened in 2015, when Netanyahu was allowed to address congress and attack the Obama administration’s landmark foreign policy achievement. How was Israel held accountable for this kind of stuff? Obama gave them the biggest military aid deal of all-time.

The antiwar movement that existed under Bush quickly dried up under Obama. “People have to make the choice, maybe unconsciously, where they could say, ‘You know, I could keep protesting the war, but does that make Obama look bad? Is that an issue we want to avoid?'”, explained Indiana University sociology professor Fabio Rojas in 2018, “And in the case of the antiwar movement, partisan motivations and partisan identities won the day.”

It’s hard to think things would work out the same way this time around. Of course, there will always be a certain segment of people who will stop paying attention once the Republican is defeated and get back to brunch, as the meme goes. However, there was no talk of “settling for Obama” in 2008 and many people are casting their vote for Biden without illusions. The climate change movement is more robust than it was 12 years ago, Black Lives Matter protests have gripped the country all year, and (partially as a result of Bernie Sanders’ presidential campaigns and more broadly as a result of simply living in this society) more young people are identifying themselves as socialists. In 2008, there was no Squad, not nearly as many leftists on city councils, and no progressive DAs running on decarceration platforms.

There’s also been a shift on Palestine domestically. Things might move at a glacial pace in Washington, but polling shows that a majority of Democratic voters already want to cut military aid to Israel. The BDS movement was in its infancy when Obama first ran for President, now it’s grown threatening enough to inspire numerous anti-BDS laws throughout the country. In congress, we see legislation like Betty McCollum’s historic bill promoting the human rights of Palestinian children. On top of all this, the standard two-state solution consensus is quickly eroding. This is the situation that Biden is stepping into and the frustration over his nomination is certainly something that can be harnessed and utilized in this battle over the coming years.

What if Trump somehow shocks the world again or Republicans are able to successfully steal this thing? It’s hard to say, but things could obviously get bleak quick. Adalah Justice Project’s Sumaya Awad had a great piece on our site this week breaking some of this down:

It may be the case that a Biden presidency would allow for more opportunities for political movements, including Palestine movements, to organize in a sustained and effective way to assert their own priorities without ceding ground to the political center.  Simply because a centrist Democrat will have won does not mean that the growing radical opposition would lower its expectations. Contrast this to the current model of shock-doctrine defense to the deliberate attacks of the Trump administration, an administration that is proudly and publicly riling up all manifestations of far-right organizing steeped in old and new molds of racism, antisemitism, and Islamophobia. 

Here are the other races we’re following on election night

Missouri-1

Cori Bush is expected to cruise to victory in Missouri’s heavily Democratic 1st district. The 44-year-old nurse and Black Lives Matter activist upset longtime incumbent Rep. William Lacy Clay in August, after unsuccessfully running for his seat in 2018. Clay’s campaign attacked Bush for having an “anti-Israel agenda” and sent out a mailer condemning her connection to Palestinian-American activist Linda Sarsour. Bush was also criticized for her defense of the the BDS movement. “In these times, it is important to be specific with our language and direct in the actions we take. In our current geopolitical economy, money talks far louder than speech alone,” read Bush’s website. “This is why nonviolent actions like the BDS movement are so important—and why the effort to mischaracterize and demonize the BDS movement by its opponents is so urgent.”

Bush will arguably be the most left-wing member of the House and is expected to be a consistent ally on the Palestinian question.

Illinois-3

Marie Newman almost beat incumbent Rep. Dan Lipinski in Illinois’ 3rd district back in 2018. In 2020, she tried again and prevailed. Lipinski was one of the House’s most pro-Israel Democrats and his loss sent the country’s defenders into a tizzy.  “Attention pro-Israel Democrats,” tweeted  Richard Goldberg, the chief of staff for Illinois’s former GOP Governor Bruce Rauner, “You were warned. Where were you? Who is running your IE efforts? Who is doing your polling? This was completely preventable. But perhaps you put your disdain for Lipinski’s domestic views over your disdain for Newman’s views on Israel. Telling.”

Goldberg later told Jewish Insider: “Congressman Lipinski is an advocate for a strong national defense, a stalwart supporter of the U.S.-Israel relationship, and an ardent proponent of efforts to counter the myriad of threats posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran. When a group like IfNotNow is celebrating a primary outcome, you know this is a big loss and embarrassment for pro-Israel Democrats.”

Newman says she’s open to the idea of conditioning aid to Israel. In a position paper, she wrote, “I oppose the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and the Israeli blockade of Gaza. I also oppose the presence of Israeli settlements and housing on the West Bank and in East Jerusalem which violate international law and undermine the prospect for a just peace.”

She should win easily in this district.

Texas-10

In 2018, Mike Siegel almost unseated 15-year GOP incumbent Mike McCaul in Texas’s 10th district. Now he’s taking another shot at the seat. Siegel (who was raised in interfaith household) has earned endorsements from IfNotNow and JVP Action.
“I’m Jewish on my father’s side, Protestant on my mother’s side, and married to a Muslim woman,” he’s said. “I was raised in a family that put social justice first. The dinner table included lively discussions about the need for human rights and justice for the Palestinian people, and how to simultaneously guarantee the safety and security of Jewish people living in Israel.”

There’s not really any mention of foreign policy on Siegel’s website, so it’s worth following his public statements on these issues if elected.

Minnesota-4

Incumbent Betty McCollum is expected to easily prevail against a surprise GOP challenger in Minnesota’s 4th district. She’s the sponsor of H.R. 2407, the Promoting Human Rights for Palestinian Children Living Under Israeli Military Occupation Act. . The bill would amend the Foreign Assistance Act to block U.S. aid from being used to detain children in any foreign country, including Israel. This summer, she introduced a bill to stop U.S. funding from potentially being used to annex Palestinian land.

Her legislative work recently won her the Champion of Palestinian Rights Award at AMP’s annual Palestine Advocacy Day. Here’s a portion of her speech:

Can anyone tell us how abusing, beating, and torturing children creates peace, security, and a better future? We know they cannot. I know that I do not want our taxpayer’s dollars funding such a destructive practice. Palestinian children–all children–must be valued, they must be respected, they must be treated with dignity, and they must be allowed to grow up with a future filled with hope and opportunity and freedom. That’s what every parent wants for their newborn when they hold that child in their arms.

Michigan-13, Minnesota-05, New York-14

When Reps. Tlaib, Omar, and Ocasio-Cortez won their House races a couple years ago, some believed that the progressive victories were a fluke. There was some wishful thinking among their detractors this year, as their close 2018 wins supposedly indicated that they were vulnerable. “Representative Rashida Tlaib, a first-term Michigan Democrat who rocketed to national attention as a vocal critic of President Trump, is fighting for her political life, locked in a close primary race that could be decided by a few hundred mail-in ballots,” declared a tweet from the New York Times.

This narrative turned out to be nonsense, as they were all able to beat their challengers easily. The Israel Lobby spent big on Omar’s race in particular, pouring money into her opponent’s campaign, but it didn’t add up to much of anything. “I think it’s safe to say the Squad is here to stay, and it’s only getting bigger,” said Tlaib after her victory. They’re all expected to win with even greater ease on election day, in their Democratic districts.

New York-16

Jamaal Bowman will be able to officially declare victory next week. The middle school principal’s shocking upset this past June was a huge blow to the Israel lobby, not just because Bowman supports conditioning aid to the country, but because pro-Israel groups are losing one their biggest allies. Engel was elected to congress back in 1988, when Bowman was just 12 years old.

Rep. Eliot Engel was one of the most hawkish, pro-Israel Democrats in congress. He even opposed President Obama, and the vast majority of his fellow Democrats, by rejecting the Iran nuclear deal. He once bragged that he sat down with AIPAC to talk about every piece of foreign policy legislation. Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) spent $2 million trying to save Engel and they failed.

Here’s what Josh Ruebner wrote at our site after Bowman’s victory:

For many years, Engel appeared to be a prime candidate to become the poster boy demonstrating the converse vulnerability of the Israel lobby. The lumbering dinosaur had become badly out-of-touch with the changing political sensibilities and demographic evolution of his district. This disconnectedness was perfectly encapsulated by his recent callous hot mic admission that he only wanted to speak at a Black Lives Matter rally because he had a primary challenger. 

If Bowman espoused standard AIPAC talking points, then his victory over Engel would not have been such a crushing defeat for the Israel lobby, but rather merely an inconvenient loss of a key player. 

The End of Engel has reverberations far beyond The Bronx, as he was the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Now 3 lawmakers are squaring off for the spot: Reps. Gregory Meeks, Joaquín Castro, and Brad Sherman. Castro is easily the most progressive of the bunch. He supports conditioning aid to Israel and has said that he wants to bring Palestinian voices to the committee.

In contrast to Castro, Sherman is openly courting the Israel lobby to help propel him to the spot so he can continue pushing the Engel agenda. “You went to bat for Eliot Engel in a huge way, and demonstrated that you understood how important that chairmanship is,” he told DMFI members during a call. “Eliot Engel was Plan A. I strongly supported him. But now I’m going to try to ask you to go with Plan B. And I won’t compare myself to my good friend Eliot Engel, except to say that when it comes to having one’s heart in the right place, Eliot and I are in the exact same place.”

California-53

It’s Democrat vs. Democrat in California’s 53rd district where Rep. Susan Davis is retiring after 20 years in the House. Polling has indicated that Sara Jacobs is up on Georgette Gomez by a considerable margin, so there probably won’t be much drama here, but it’s going to be worth paying attention to the potential fallout here. The Justice Democrats originally backed Gomez, but in April San Diego City Council president did an interview with Jewish Insider (JI) where she cited her pro-Israel views and rejected the group’s characterization of Israel as a “human rights violator.” A source inside the Gomez campaign recently told JI that the organization had effectively stopped fundraising for her over the disagreement. In the scheme of things, this might seem like small potatoes but it points to a deepening rift.