The most remarkable event in the Middle East in 2020 was the “normalization” between some Arab states (so far the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco) and Israel. According to the so-called Abraham Accords, these states will resume diplomatic and economic relations with Israel. This rapprochement has been in the making for some time already. The Arab states started to warm up to the Middle East Plan of President Trump and his son-in-law Jared Kushner. This plan would acknowledge Israel’s permanent occupation of about one third of the West Bank and leave the Palestinians with a shattered territory without sovereignty over their own security. Attached to this would be an investment plan for not only the Palestinians but all Arab states. Before that, the Trump administration recognized Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem. All this has been confirmed once more by Secretary of State Pompeo when he visited settlements in the West Bank and the Golan Heights in November 2020. “I am on Israel’s land” he stated.
Both the Trump/Kushner Plan and the Abraham Accords ignore the Palestinian aspiration for an independent state. They are a reversal of President Obama’s initial preference for the borders of 1967, which has been obstructed by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. It is also a turnaround of the Arab Peace Initiative of 2002 that requires a recognition of Israel only within the borders of 1967 (this is the reason why Saudi Arabia is still hesitating over whether to join the Accords). The Accords abandon also a two-state solution as proposed by the European Union. For decades, the Palestinian issue has been key to Arab-Israeli-US-EU relations. It was also at the center of the Oslo Accords in the nineties. Why has it been abandoned?
Alliance building
The Abraham Accords are not a sudden love affair between Arab states and Israel. If one takes a realist stance, there is only one explanation: the geopolitical position of Iran. Global indices rank Iran’s geopolitical potential as fourteenth, well ahead of Saudi Arabia and Israel. The index includes over fifty factors, including population, size, coasts, land mass, resources, infrastructure, and discipline of the military; this is remarkable given that Iran’s military budget is seven times smaller than that of Saudi Arabia. Nuclear weapons are not included. What do neighboring states do if they fear such a prospect? According to the balance of power theory, they build an alliance. Although the Abraham Accords do not contain explicit defense provisions such as a collective defense clause, they speak of a common Strategic Agenda for the Middle East, “to advance regional security and stability” signed by the participating parties, including the United States. An alliance will increase the security dilemma and further incite a reaction from Iran; this will entail support for friendly militias as a second line of defense but also an enhancing of its nuclear program. Such a chain of reactions will increase instability in the region.
President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and Crown Prince Bin Salman opposed the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) not so much because of Iran’s nuclear program but because it would have recognized and improved Iran’s geopolitical status. Saudi Arabia supported JCPOA in 2015 but in 2018 supported Trump leaving it because it would not cover Iran’s regional behavior. There is no arms control agreement in history, however, that includes behavior. Furthermore, since Israel is a nuclear weapons state, the Abraham Accords would become a nuclear coalition. They would blow up the concept of a “Nuclear Weapon Free Zone Middle East”, which the Arab states have at least rhetorically supported thus far.
Biden’s challenges
What will change under President Biden? He has alluded both to going back to the JCPOA if Iran meets certain conditions and also restoring diplomatic relations with the Palestinians. He will not, however, roll back the Abraham Accords. To avoid higher tensions in the region between Iran and its neighbors, Biden could take a bold decision and diplomatically recognize Iran. To forestall further isolation, Iran itself could try to get back into a regional dialogue on the basis of the Arab Peace Initiative and indicate that it could recognize Israel in the borders of 1967. It would also take Arab states at their word and not abandon the Palestinians. The Palestinians cannot be left out of any regional dialogue; they have to be part of any further talks whether they are related to the Abraham Accords or to a revival of the Arab Peace Plan.
The Biden administration would do well to acknowledge that an isolated Iran would only embolden hardliners and encourage them to act more aggressively. To use a historical analogy, Germany’s isolation after 1918 strengthened the radical nationalists; conversely, its integration with the West after 1945, for example through Marshall Plan aid, led to a prosperous and democratic country.
Lest we forget:
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/10/07/635824/Arab-nations-adamantly-opposed-to-normal-relations-with-Israeli-regime,-survey-shows
“Arab nations adamantly opposed to relations with Israeli regime, survey shows” Press TV, Oct. 7/20
EXCERPT:
“A new survey has revealed that Arab populations continue to overwhelmingly oppose the recognition of Israel and the establishment of ties with it, despite recent decisions by rulers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain to normalize with the Tel Aviv regime.
“The 2019-2020 Arab Opinion Index was based on face-to-face interviews conducted with 28,000 individual respondents across 13 Arab countries, including Jordan, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt and Mauritania, between November 2019 and September 2020.
“The result showed that the nations viewed Israel as the primary threat their country was facing.
“When asked whether they would ‘support or oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel by your country’ only respondents in Sudan and Saudi Arabia came in at less than 80 percent for ‘oppose,’ at 79 percent and 65 percent respectively.
“Even in the two countries that already recognize Israel – Jordan and Egypt – opposition was very high, at 93 percent and 85 percent, respectively.”
Professor Gärtner has a woefully limited vision of Palestinian affairs, as is typical of the West European “security” establishment. He’s bogged down in the “two-state solution” fantasy, which has been an obstacle to freedom, justice, and equality in Palestine from the days of the Oslo process. We must be liberated from advice from such quarters.
In the last year of the presidency of Donald Trump, Middle East was the main hotspot for American foreign policy and President Trump helped Israel a lot that’s why Arab states recognize Israel. Now its time for the foreign policy of Joe Biden towards the Middle East. I think the American policy towards in the Middle East especially for Israel will remain the same.
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The documents portray ARK as deeply experienced in political and propaganda work in Lebanon, priding itself in one document for its “wide experience” in implementation of policies. The company has been active in voting initiatives, youth political participation (even against Israel?), and one document talks about its work arranging local favorable media “coverage” for its activities.
The news broadcasts of the three key TV networks in Lebanon (New TV, LBCTV, and MTV) now all carry the same pro-Western message. New TV had in the past been a staunch secular supporter of resistance movements against Israel. Since the Saudi war on Yemen, all media were brought to their knees with a combination of payments, contracts, and threats… the Gulf regimes decide which TV stations can be carried on the two Arab satellite systems. … U.S. officials appear with subservient journalists who don’t dare ask probing questions…
Reading through the documents one encounters names of companies from insurance firms to the famous Saatchi & Saatchi, the advertising powerhouse that helped the Jordanian king improve his image and designed the publicity of the “Cedar Revolution.” The documents help one better understand the Western management of the political movement run by Washington in the aftermath Rafiq Hariri assassination in 2005.
[…]The British government doesn’t mind working with traditional parties as long as they follow the British agenda: there is one document that talks about the Union of Minyah Municipalities, which is affiliated with the Future Movement of Saad Hariri. Another document talks about working with universities, youth groups, social movements, on-line movements, MPs, and political parties and municipalities.
There is also keen interest in public opinion in these documents. There are surveys commissioned by the British embassy and focus groups held all over Lebanon. One survey asks about areas of concern among the Lebanese people and Hizbullah’s arms are not among them, contrary to Western propaganda.
One of the most dangerous parts of the documents reveal a deep penetration by the British government into Palestinian refugee camps, which have ceased to be centers of resistance against Israel. Western and Gulf governments have been working for years to pacify the camps and prevent them from agitating and recruiting against Israel.
1 of 2 A slew of newly leaked documents sheds light on British intrigues in the Levant December 30, 2020 https://consortiumnews.com/2020/12/30/the-angry-arab-british-plots-in-lebanon/
[…]Britain, France and the U.S. are permanent members of the UN Security Council and Britain belongs to the exclusive “Five Eyes” intelligence club with the U.S., Canada, New Zealand and Australia. The Middle East is replete with examples of Western intelligence and diplomatic collaboration: the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the NATO operation against Libya and the political exploitation of the assassination of Rafiq Hariri in 2005, a joint Western-Gulf and Israeli operation.
[…]The documents …underline a huge role undertaken by the British Dubai-based company, ARK. The company, which was founded and is led by former British officials, appears to coordinate U.S. and British propaganda operations in the region.
[…]It’s clear Western powers allow their embassies to do things they would never allow developing countries to do from their embassies in the West. After the humiliating defeat of Israel in Lebanon in 2006, there has been a feverish escalation of the propaganda war in Lebanon against all those who declare resistance against Israel.
Western powers and Gulf despots have been funding various political parties, politicians and most importantly NGOs to produce a counter-resistance narrative. NGOs are now favored over traditional political parties because they are not only more likely to appeal to young people, but they also recruit …youth. The NGO culture has been the fertile ground for Western and Gulf conspiracies and intrigues, and a willing promoter of the agenda of Gulf despots.
The Saudi and UAE regimes now partner with Western media (Bloomberg, Sky News, CNN, The Independent, etc) to produce Western-branded local propaganda. The Saudi electronic army now often dictates the top hashtags of most Arab nations. Regardless of what is going on in Arab countries, you will see hashtags in praise of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman or some Saudi event or development as top trends on Twitter.The British embassy documents show that it is actively engaged in cooperation with companies, societies and personalities to mold opinion and to promote certain politics that are consistent with the Western agenda in the region.