The following article appears on the front page today's Yediot Ahronoth, and was translated by Didi Remez on his blog Coteret.
Agreement now, peace later
Shimon Shiffer, Yediot, August 27 2010 [front-page]
The Obama administration intends to present Israel and the Palestinians with a new outline for ending the conflict. Yedioth Ahronoth has learned that the Americans will pressure the sides to sign a framework agreement for a final status arrangement within a year — but the agreement would be only implemented within a number of years, apparently up to ten years at the most. The US administration intends to invest all possible efforts to ensure that the direct talks between Israel and the Palestinians, which will be officially launched next Thursday, will end in an agreement and not in a crisis, as happened in the previous rounds of negotiations. Barack Obama, whose standing in the polls is at a low, very much wants to score a first success in the Middle Eastern arena — in light of the ongoing bloodbath in Iraq and Afghanistan.
For this purpose, the US president intends to become personally involved this time: Director of the Middle East department at the National Security Council Dan Shapiro told leaders of Jewish organizations in the US that Obama intends to visit Israel and the Palestinian Authority in the course of the coming year. The US president wishes to take advantage of his visit to persuade both peoples to support painful compromises for peace.
A few days ago, the leaders of Jewish organizations in the US held a conference call with three of the most senior figures who set the administration’s Middle East policy. The most senior of the three, Dennis Ross, has been a partner to all the talks between Israel and the Palestinians since the Oslo Accords. Ross is currently considered Obama’s number one expert on Middle East affairs. Alongside Ross, the participants of the conference call included Dan Shapiro and David Hale, deputy of special envoy George Mitchell.
Yedioth Ahronoth has obtained the summary of the minutes of the conference call, which were prepared by the White House. The document provides a fascinating glimpse into the administration’s plans for the coming period. According to the American plan, the negotiating teams of Israel and the PA will conduct intensive talks with the aim of reaching a framework agreement on a final status arrangement within a year. The intensive talks will be held in isolated locations, so that the teams will be able to quietly discuss the core issues of the final status agreement: The future of Jerusalem, borders, settlements and refugees. Binyamin Netanyahu and Abu Mazen will be called upon to meet frequently in order to resolve problems and move forward the stages of negotiations.At points in which the negotiations meet an impasse, senior administration officials will intervene in the talks and will present bridging proposals to the sides. In addition, the US will try to persuade the moderate Arab states to make gestures towards Israel and influence the Palestinians to compromise.
At the end of the intensive year, the framework agreement for ending the conflict is supposed to be signed. From that moment onward, the agreement will be implemented gradually over a number of years.
“Many people will try to sabotage the talks. Our challenge will be to ensure their success,” Ross assessed. “What can be learned from the mistakes that caused the previous attempts to resolve the conflict to fail,” the Jewish leaders asked. “I have learned that a situation must not be accepted in which the sides speak one way inside the room and another way outside the room,” Ross replied. In other words: The administration will not look kindly upon a situation in which the senior Israeli and Palestinian figures cast muck at each other outside the conference rooms. “Is Netanyahu capable of reaching an agreement that will receive political support in Israel?” the Jewish leaders asked. Hale replied that Netanyahu had assured [the administration] that he was capable of doing so. “We consider him a strong partner who is committed to the process,” Hale said.
Senior political sources in Israel, however, reveal that Netanyahu has not yet prepared any firm position for the direct talks. The government is still not in agreement on the outline for the final status arrangement — not to mention the issue of the construction freeze. “Bibi will escape from Washington by the skin of his teeth,” a senior source in Jerusalem assessed. Minister Dan Meridor, with Netanyahu’s knowledge, is trying to persuade Ross and Shapiro to consent to the outline he proposed for the end of the freeze period on September 26: The construction freeze would only continue in the isolated settlements, but construction would be renewed in settlement blocs that are expected to remain under Israeli sovereignty. As of now, only one minister from the forum of seven supports this idea: Ehud Barak.
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman believes that the Americans should be told that construction within the settlement blocs would continue without restrictions, whereas in the isolated settlements construction will be renewed according to the natural growth of the residents. The Palestinians, for their part, have already clarified their demands for the start of the talks: Establishing a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital. At the start of the talks, they will demand that Israel withdraw from territory in the northern Dead Sea as a gesture for the continuation of the negotiations. The PA is expected to consent to a land swap with Israel: In exchange for giving up 3.9% of the area of the West Bank in which the settlement blocs are located, the Palestinians expect to receive land in the Negev.
Zzzzzz…. yawn, stretch and moan grumbling…. just wake me up when peace finally doesn’t break out.
ditto
You guys can have all the remaining hilltops in the West Bank that we haven’t already claimed as past of the state of Israel. We’ll even allow supplies back into Gaza, just to satisfy world opinion.
It’s our our final offer and we believe it’s a fair one.
See were good guys, friendly guys.
and the Palestinians will never realize what an opportunity they missed…
but the agreement would be only implemented within a number of years, apparently up to ten years at the most.
What’s this, the Biggest Sucker program? We all know how this works – “a number of years” means “never”, after Obama takes his Peace Prize into retirement. This is just a way to reassure the US Zionists – “don’t worry, we just want another photo op but nothing drastic – like a Palestinian state – will ever come from it.”
And where is the briefing for Palestinian-American leadership?
Obama never loses an opportunity to make me despise him even more.
So is the President intending to ever address the non-Jewish constituents that, you know, put him in office? Or are our “contributions” to his campaign to stay in the White House not sufficient to merit that?
‘The US president intends to become personally involved this time.’
Lord, spare us! The last time the US president (Jimmy Carter) got personally involved, the US committed to $5 billion a year in perpetuity to prop up the Egyptian and Jordanian dictatorships, while subsidizing Israeli intransigence.
Carter won a Nobel Peace Prize, but we paid $150 billion for it, and the meter is still running.
Drone messiah Baruch O’Bomba (the scourge of the Pashtuns) already has one. So please let’s just quit now while we’re ahead.
What kind of “peace agreement” ignores the current government of Gaza? Is Gaza’s status to even be discussed in these talks?
don’t see anyone on the agenda to hold up that end of the conversation, lobewyper.
do Americans actually swallow this stuff — that three or four Israeli partisans will “negotiate” for or act as honest broker for people who are not even at the table?
and what should we make of George Mitchell’s absence from the negotiation? Is his absence his signal that he doesn’t want to be associated with a sham, or was he pushed aside by others who were afraid he might actually demand fairness?
“and what should we make of George Mitchell’s absence from the negotiation? Is his absence his signal that he doesn’t want to be associated with a sham, or was he pushed aside by others who were afraid he might actually demand fairness?”
Interesting question, PG. Not sure I really want to know the answer…
When Dennis Ross is considered Israel’s lawyer how far can we expect these efforts to go?
amazing that Chritiane Amanpour tried to pull off that there had been a freeze of illegal settlements on “This Week” last Sunday. What a sham. As if there ever had been a freeze.
Has to be push for a two state settlement because that possibility is fading away.
Ross “many people will try to sabotage” Hell Ross and team were the successful culprits at spinning that all other failures or breakdowns were the fault of Arafat. Always Arafat. It was always his fault according to Ross and team.
Ross was a speaker at Ohio Universities Baker Peace Conference some years ago. I asked him if Israel should be forced to sign the IAEA non proliferation treaty. You know the treaty that Iran and Iraq signed long ago. He hesitated and then said “I guess so”
Hey folks I want to encourage people to really encourage people to let others know about what goes on here at Mondoweiss. Open debates, discussions about the I/P conflict a huge flow of important information etc. Many other so called progressive blogs have serious blog clogs when it comes to the I/P conflict. Many sites claim to be progressive but are clearly Peps (progressives except for Palestine)
We need to do what we can to encourage more people to come to Mondoweiss
I for one keep trying to do what you recommend, Kathleen, but nobody I know ever gets interested.
“the US will try to persuade the moderate Arab states to make gestures towards Israel and influence the Palestinians to compromise.”
I think the U.S should try and persuade Israel to compromise. The onus really is on Israel to compromise, since they are the occupying nation, stealing land.
Agreed.
I was interested to read:
The US president wishes to take advantage of his visit to persuade both peoples to support painful compromises for peace.
What painful compromise will Israelis be asked to make? Denying complete RoR is not a compromise. Keeping parts of East Jerusalem is not a compromise. Keeping settlement blocs beyond the green line is not compromise. Refusing to evacuate 100% of settlements is not a compromise. Expecting to keep the Jordan Valley is not a compromise. Expecting to control Palestinian water resources, state borders and airspace, and a demilitarised state itself, is not a compromise.
Just what will Israel’s compromises be?
It’s amazing to me that apparently nobody involved in this subject from the American government is even questioning that certain settlements are to remain in any version of a peace settlement.
And Dennis Ross is guiding American positions in these negotiations. Didn’t we learn from the last time: he works for the Israelis of G-d’s sake.
This will be the outcome:
1. a framework for ‘peace’ will be agreed to. But until that ‘peace’ becomes official WB settlement expansion will continue.
2. Those PA officials that agree to this framework will be awarded millions of dollars for their co-operation. These now very rich Palestinians will become the new capitalist class that will invest in Palestinian businesses with their Israeli partners. This new wealth will raise all boats.
3. Gaza will remain ignored. Until that point when those people learn that they voted for the wrong side in the last election, and if only they would become rational, they too could become rich capitalist.
4. The vast majority of Palestinians will be remain under oppressive Israeli domination. That situation can never change because as we all know the Palestinians never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity. They have rightfully earned their position as a defeated and subject people. If only they had accepted Israeli dominion in 1948 then every thing would have been peachy.
As we all have learned from the last 60 years, this situation can only lead to more war. But not until after the 2012 US elections so Obama can run as the peace candidate.
Even if the IDF is removed from the WB, the Palestinians will still remain under the oppressive Daytonista regime, the IDF surrogate.
Does Obama have a core motivation for anything he does that is not essentially his personal gain? Is he anything but a career opportunist, common variety? Any conclusion to be drawn from where he and wife choose to go on (their many) vacations? Or from his slip of the tongues in public, such as when he condemned those cops as “stupid,” or referred to “bun-totin’ folks clutchin’ their bibles?” Or from his dedication of his book to his father, as distingished from his mother or her parents, the ones who raised him? Just asking. Seems to me he’s an empty shell.
Oops, I mean “gun-totin’”
RE: “the agreement will be implemented gradually over a number of years.” – Shiffer
MY COMMENT: Oslo II?
Any time but “now.”
A few years back somebody snarked that the liberal Zionist group “Peace Now” should be renamed “Peace Later”. It has come to pass.
Peace absolutely scares the shit out of you guys doesn’t it?
“Peace absolutely scares the shit out of you guys doesn’t it?”
Not if it’s remotely possible..But can you name just ONE Israeli politician who’s interested in peace and not in a peace process where it goes on forever while the colonisation of the Ot is underway to completion? This is a farce..your “innocence” is touching though!
An honest statement from you Schwartzman, would have “peace” in inverted commas.
Near on twenty years of “peace” negotiations has resulted in just one thing: progressive tightening of the noose around the neck of Palestinians. This is comprised:
• a more than doubling of the illegal settler population
• thousands more dunums of Palestinian land stolen
• ever increasing diversion of Palestinian water to the settlements and Israel proper
• more than a million Palestinian olive trees destroyed
• thousands of Palestinians homes destroyed
• thousands of Palestinians expelled from East Jerusalem, and thousands more Palestinians expelled from Area C – taken together, this is the herding of Palestinians into the bantustans
• hundreds of checkpoints, design to limit movement, damage the economy and humiliate Palestinians
Add to that the killing/torture/maiming and injuring of thousands of Palestinians. And all of the above is just the West Bank and East Jerusalem. The estrangement of Gaza and the WB/EJ (divide and conquer) is also a major achievement of twenty years of “peace” process, not to mention the actual horrors inflicted on Gaza during the same time period.
I’d love some peace, but it has to be authentic.
>> Near on twenty years of “peace” negotiations has resulted in…
Mere pebbles in the stream! Which make the Palestinians quite fortunate because, unlike a rock, which has to be paddled around, pebbles can be floated over. So, as long as the waters of time and progress remain deep and strong, these pebbles won’t even scratch the bottom of the Palestinian canoe of progress.
>> … So, as long as the waters of time and progress remain deep and strong, these pebbles won’t even scratch the bottom of the Palestinian canoe of progress.
Damn, I used “progress” twice. OK, so, how about: “So, as long as the waters of time remain deep and strong, these pebbles won’t even scratch the bottom of the Palestinian canoe of progress.”
Yeah, that’s better (wheels). :-)
I doubt if you would think so highly of “peace” if it were Israel being pressured to surrender.
to whom are you talking, Schwartzman — the face in the mirror?
I suspect, Schwartzman, that the “guys” who are “scared shitless” are the ones frightened at the prospect of having their unique identities as g-d’s chosen Ashkenazi, destined to bring the light of Europa to the Levant, appalled at the prospect that democracy means they must grant equal status to Russian, Ethiopian, mizrahi and American Jews as well as and Arabs.
to whom are you talking, Schwartzman — the face in the mirror?
I suspect, Schwartzman, that the “guys” who are scared shitless have lost control of their bowels at the prospect of having their unique identities as g-d’s chosen Ashkenazi, destined from time immemorial to bring the light of Europa to the Levant, but instead find their superior gifts submerged in the welter of mizrahi and Arab and Russian and Ethiopian and coarse American Jew and non Jew — none of them quite living up to the fantasy Jew of Herzl’s super Jew.
what peace?
Who’s afraid of peace?
(Also — this post got through moderation, huh?)
no one takes this latest ‘peace’ initiative seriously.
From the Financial Times editorial page article entitled ‘On final act in Middle East farce’ of August 23:
By inviting Israeli and Palestinian leaders to Washington to relaunch direct talks on September 2, the US government has opened the latest act in the farce of Middle East peace negotiations. So far devoid even of a script, this piece of theatre risks irrelevance outside of the US midterm elections. . . .
Not much is likely to come of the talks. Israel’s notional willingness to put every issue on the table is a figleaf for continuing construction and evictions in occupied East Jerusalem and the West Bank. What happens when a partial moratorium expires in September is itself left open for negotiation. Arab public opinion, understandably, takes no interest in the talks.
yes, and why is my use of profanity (sh*t for example) the basis for redaction while blackman’s is not? a slip up?
I guess we can say that Obama has officially thrown in his gloves, now that he has announced his intention to commit himself (personally, of course) to the “peace process.”
What remains to be seen? Obama’s most significant contribution to the conflict remains his short-lived but sincere effort to stop Israeli settlement expansion. That ended in such a failure that Obama went on an apologetic spree to get in the good books of the American Jews, displaying such Zionism as had not been seen in his election days when Obama confidently promised Israel an “undivided Jerusalem.”
BDS is the only change anyone can believe in.
more from coteret (Maariv)
“The PA is expected to consent to a land swap with Israel: In exchange for giving up 3.9% of the area of the West Bank in which the settlement blocs are located, the Palestinians expect to receive land in the Negev.”
Who expects this – the Americans? Why would the Palestinians agree to give up 3 – 9% of some of the most valuable land in the West Bank in exchange for some useless piece of desert?
Apparently Patrick, Israel is out and about trying to make the Negev look valuable by trying to clear the Bedouin off of the territory. It is all a big charade, they will no doubt try to give the land back to the Palestinians that they do not want in the first place (minus those territories near the current colonial settlements which they intend to expand). It will cause the periphery of the Negev that can be connected by roads to serve as a surrounding enclosure, to hem in the Palestinians and keep them in virtual servitude to any external assistance.
The entire setup is merely to give more to the Israelis, and taking even more from the Palestinians. Apparently they have not lost enough already, it is a perpetual theft process.
As ALL Palestinians live under Israeli control, or in other words, they all live in Israel now, the only solution, which will also usefully do away with this endless charade of ‘peace’ negotiations, is to implement one person, one vote in the whole of Israel. The fiction that there is a ‘separate’ Palestine waiting to be born is only colluding with the apartheid system israel has built, in order to gerrymander the Jewish vote. The sooner the illusions fall away the better.
This is starting with the same “concern” and emphasis that all the other bogus peace talks have begun with, total concern for one side, Israel. I am reminded of the recent post by Mr. Ruebner earlier on this site –
Top ten reasons for skepticism on Israeli-Palestinian talks
The Palestinian-American leadership is left in the cold, while the other is played up to the hilt, in order to show where the “real” interest lies – they cannot help themselves. The time will only serve as a signal for the fastest and most aggressive theft of Palestinian land – what is left of it. That is why I have always called it a “piece process” rather than “peace,” its aim is the serene peace of death, with no justice.
“DEMANDS OF A THIEF,” OR THIEVES CONVENTION
Any mention of the right of return?
meanwhile,
Gaza And The Warsaw Ghetto
same place
different time
while the world stands by
genocide
live
I was under the impression that this approach had already been widely discussed, at least in the blogs. I don’t have the links, as I don’t have a library of references, but I’m sure others do.
The dangers are obvious, as syvanen lists. It means that land seizure will continue, and the details signed, probably vague, will be forgotten before anybody thinks of putting them into effect.
The Obama regime knows this, Israel knows it, and so do the Palestinians. It seems to me a poor trick, as everyone can see through it. So I wonder whether the report is true.
Alternatively, there’s something more behind it that we do not know. Obama may be only interested in addressing the Jewish interest in the States, for electoral reasons. Or things may really go in a different direction from this start point. I don’t know.
good comments. Israel has never attempted to “compromise” or to follow international law, which would enable some Palestinian independence and real life to have a chance;