Everyone’s talking about the Iranian revolution, how an American-backed dictator was brought down, and what that brought in train. A friend with Iranian roots gave us the back of the envelope on the American part in the Iranian revolution, didn’t want to be named.
1953 Mossadegh tries to nationalize oil and bring about democracy, US coup brings the Shah back – a weak man – now heavily backed/reliant on the US – making Iran the 5th largest army in the world and very repressive – stamped out lefties/ exiled/tortured/ jailed outspoken clerics etc.
By 1978 a lot of issues festering – economically, politcally and socially. The last is often not discussed but one of the things that really riled mullahs and got them to mobilize public support was the imposition of family law that gave women rights to divorce, child custody etc – against traditional Sharia. The mullahs accused the shah of moral corruption, westoxification, undermining family/women and claiming Islam would bring freedom to all people, including women etc.
Carter election in 76 brought new attention to human rights. So Shah is getting mixed messaging – to be more open politically/less repressive but not exactly reform
Carter spent New Years 1978 in Tehran saying he would back the Shah, that the Shah was his top ally etc.
Fast forward into 1978, August rumblings. Cinema Rex in Abadan burnt down. State security was accused but reality turned out it was agitators. Things got tense. By Sept 78 curfews and nightly Allah o akbars. Then an incident in Tehran: the army opened fire on protesters, everything escalated. Shah (presumably with Carter’s backing /advice /pressure etc) – started offering reforms, shuffling cabinet, even jailing long standing politicians including Prime Minister Hoveyda (13 year PM). But it was all too little too late: by Jan ’79 it was clear that things were moving towards real regime change…
Brzezinski had sent message that US would support crackdown and senior Iranian army officers asked Shah to let them crack down. There was much internal division within army – but Shah, who had cancer and was dying tho’ not letting go of power, refused to let blood be spilled. Also key army figures had link to revolutionaries and they were also unwilling.
Lacking willingness/guts/’permission’ from US–many think the Shah was so weak willed that he really did ask what he should do–the Shah leaves…Looking for place to land Panama etc. Inside the Carter Admin a major fight between Brzezinski and Cyrus Vance about Iran strategy and what to do with the Shah, because on departure from Iran he asked permission to come to US for cancer treatment. Carter finally allows him in – enrages Iranians — who demand his return for trial (and clearly execution) in Iran…
Carter unsure – – (there is apparently a moment where they really do think about handing Shah over but it doesnt happen)… – all this leads up to hostage crisis etc and the rest is history.
In Iranian eyes Carter is seen as inept b/c he was neither willing to be tough enough about cost of keeping Iran as ally and supporting repressive measures (that were for US security too; in those days much was directed at Communist threat) and were btw very mild compared to what we see in Egypt today or in Iran in 2009. But also because he didn’t stand up strongly enough at right time to support the revolutionaries (long before it became overly Islamist, before we even understood what Islamist meant).
An aside: In US eyes Carter’s demise was to do with hostage crisis but investigative journalism/documentaries I’ve seen reveal that there were many moments where Carter admin was close to release of hostages but Republicans were backchanneling and made deal to have them released after 1980 elections.
Obama seems to be siding with the people in Egypt -as I see it frankly that’s the only solution. If Mobarak wins somehow, he will still need the US, so Obama can adjust position, but if people win and Obama is not early supporter, the US has a lot to lose. But if US an early supporter, chances that transition and new political regime will be willing to work with US is higher. NYT reporting that Robert Gates was young man in govt service (not sure where) during Carter admin days.
Obama people are definitely looking at Carter/Iran but question is are they picking up the right lessons.
