Arab-American Democrats at the Democratic National Convention (Photo via Huffington Post)
The Arab-American community still largely supports President Barack Obama, but 15 percent of Arabs who voted for Obama in 2008 have not declared their support for him this year, according to a new poll released by the Arab American Institute (AAI).
52 percent of all Arab-Americans say they will vote for Obama, compared to 28 percent who have declared their support for Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate. The numbers are also broken down by religious identity. “Arab American Muslims support Obama overwhelmingly (75% to 8%), while Orthodox/Protestants support Romney by a 16% margin,” according to the poll.
The AAI survey also notes that “Arab American Democrats still outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 margin (46% to 22%), continuing a steady migration away from the GOP since 2002,” though “independent affiliation has increased steadily since 2002.”
While the economic situation remains the number one issue for Arab-Americans, as well as the country at large, foreign policy also remains an issue on the minds of many Arab voters. Those polled put foreign policy as the 2nd most important issue for them in the U.S., with the economy and jobs far outweighing other issues.
57 percent of all Arab voters label the Israel/Palestine conflict as “very important.” “Democrats give Obama highest marks for his handling of the economy and taxes, and lowest marks for his handling of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict,” according to the survey.
Asked if Obama’s failure on the Israel/Palestine front was a major factor in the 15 percent drop among Arab-Americans, the president of AAI, Jim Zogby, said: “I’m not going to say major factor, but I think it’s a factor…[There’s] the combination of disappointment over the Middle East, some disappointment on civil liberties. But also the normal factors of everyone else, the fact that a number of things weren’t delivered on.”
The hopes that Obama would be an “honest broker” in trying to get Israel and the Palestinians to reach a deal have not panned out. While Obama came out against illegal Israeli settlements in the beginning of his term, pressure from Israel and its advocates in the U.S. ultimately caused the president to back down. And Obama has lavished military and economic aid on Israel while protecting it from diplomatic opprobrium.
Another issue weighing on the minds of Arab voters is civil liberties. “What happened in New York, with the NYPD surveillance program, continues without any criticism at all,” Zogby noted in an interview. “If you live in Michigan, cross the border as many do, if you come into Miami airport, if you come in New York airport, you can expect discriminatory treatment and that’s unacceptable and people feel it. So does that resonate? Sure it does.”
In April, the Council on American Islamic Relations sued the Federal Bureau of Investigation and U.S. Customs and Border Protection for discriminatory treatment of Muslims at the Canadian border. And in that same month, Obama counter-terrorism adviser John Brennan seemingly put “a White House stamp of approval of the NYPD’s tactics” when he said that NYPD chief Ray Kelly has “done everything according to the law.” The White House then put out a statement denying that Brennan approved of the NYPD program.
But for all the disappointment in Obama over Israel/Palestine and civil liberties, the other candidate is even worse. “The other side doesn’t capitalize on it, they can’t capitalize on it because they scare the community,” said Zogby, referring to the Republican Party, who actively engage in Islamophobia. “So swing voters are not finding an alternative to the president.”
Underscoring the GOP’s anti-Muslim position was a recent YouGov poll highlighted on Mondoweiss, which found that “an overwhelming majority of Republican voters in the United States regard the west and Islam as being embroiled in ‘a fundamental conflict which only one side can win.’”
But the drop in Democratic support could harm Obama’s re-election chances. One recent study on Muslim-American political participation notes that the Muslim population in Florida and Michigan is large enough to swing the vote.
I’m an Arab-American and I would NEVER vote for Obama! He has proven himself to be criminal on the question of Palestine.
@ Dexter,
What’s your other choice.
Not voting at all. Voting for GPUS, SPUSA or DSA.
Libertarian Party
I don’t quite see why those who hate Obama’s foreign policy would switch to Romney, unless the lack of difference in that area was eclipsed by more societal concerns (abortion, evolution, Romney being a fellow tea-totaller….) The two parties’ foreign policies, despite rhetoric to the contrary, are and will be virtually the same.
Come on left wing civil libertarian alternative to the Democratic Party!
I think the GOP over estimated the value of being perceived as tough on Islamic terrorists, while the minds behind Romney fail to see that they should be more inclusive of the Arab American community while so doing, meaning be strong without sounding offensive. This miscalculation causes them to be labeled Islamaphobes with media support as evidenced in the constant labeling, daily. Hearing the label come from Zogby I am not certain if he is swaying voters to his personal views or creating that very fear which using the label produces.
Are AAI members cognizant of the fact that the GOP means them no harm and see nothing to fear resulting in the 15% drop? As reported above Obama has no stellar record in regard to treatment of Arabs, or impoverished black communities by the way, I cannot resist throwing that in there, but really Romney could attack on so many points…
I would suggest that as AAI members become a larger group they will not block vote as they may have in the past. Education, assimilation and so forth will result in greater diversity amongst this group of Americans.
Yeah just FYI the Arab vote doesn’t matter because
(a) We aren’t big enough of a politically organized group, regardless of the number of Americans that have that heritage in them
(b) We don’t represent key swing voters in constituencies that matter (First I’ve read would be that report you have linked…but the link isn’t working)
(c) We haven’t pooled money to the same extent as other PACs to help get politicians elected that are sympathetic to causes important to the community (which should be 100% in line with basic concepts of Human Rights & Universal Equality)
(d) There are much bigger forces that make/break elections
Apologies that the link was wrong, here’s the study: link to ispu.org
“The AAI survey also notes that “Arab American Democrats still outnumber Republicans by a 2-1 ”
I have no interest in this race, but it should be noted that that AAI that released the poll is the outfit of James Zoghby, a paid Democratic party consultant. Not clearly mentioned is who conducted the poll, but chances are it was by the Zoghby Poll, that does polling for the Democratic Party and an outfit run by John Zoghby, the brother of James Zoghby.
This poll is a sales pitch. It says the Muslim and Catholic Arabs overwhelmingly support Obama while the Protestants and Orthodox Arabs support Romney by a margin of 16%. These Romney numbers are insignificant polling charlantary since Protestant and Orthodox Christian Arabs represent about 20% of the total Arab population.
Arabs in general vote for the one they think will do something good for the Palestinians. They are disappointed time after time, after time, after time.
charlantary? I guess the guy in the post above wanted to say charlatanry and got tripped in his wording.
There are supposed to be around 3.5 million Arabs in the US but something like only 900,000 that are registered. Does anyone know how many can actually vote?
I share your scepticism on these numbers. The Arab community has historically favored Republicans and while I believe the trend towards the Democrats in the last decade, I don’t think it’s as pronounced as Zoghby thinks. I don’t believe that the Catholic/Maronite voters support Obama overwhelmingly either since they tend to be far more conservative. They tend to have similar views to other Christian Arabs and favor Republicans.
I am betting the maority of US Arabs will be like I am….when it gets down to the final moment and choice they will hold their noses and go for the lesser evil.
“Arab American Muslims support Obama overwhelmingly (75% to 8%), while Orthodox/Protestants support Romney by a 16% margin. ”
I wonder why the report’s authors chose to lump the Orthodox and Protestants together, while giving Catholics (omitted here, but appearing in later charts) their own column? That’s certainly the least theologically-correct approach: Catholics and Protestants, or Orthodox and Catholics, would either make some kind of categorical sense, while this seems to have none. Perhaps Orthodox and Protestant respondents answered more similarly than Catholic ones, but if that’s the case, it isn’t reported here.
“That’s certainly the least theologically-correct approach”
This is a politically-motivated report, not a theological one. Most of the Arabs are Christians and most of those Christians are Catholic. James Zoghby is sending you a signal that those Arabs that are with Romney are mostly the Protestants (that are negligible in number of Arabs) and Orthodox (that are a minority among Christians). It makes you conclude that most Arab-Americans are with the Democrats. Funny numbering games.
That may very well be the signal Mr. Zogby intends to send, but I would much prefer that the authors of statistical reports come right out and say their reasons for categorizing seemingly different groups together, rather than leaving readers to guess.
Eccellente
The Arab-American Institute (AAI) is a one-person show run by James Zogby.
A generation ago, Rev. Jesse Jackson tried to get Arab-Americans to support his “Rainbow Coalition”, on the left-wing of the Democratic Party. One problem: a lot of Arab Americans (at the time) were Republicans.
The Democtats’ point man with the Americn Arabs for over 10 years has been James Zoghby. He played a big part in swaying the Arabs that had been almost 100% pro-Republican to bend more and more towards the Democrats. Most of the reporting on the numbers and voting trends of Arab-Americans whether Republicans or Democrats have been provided by the Zoghby brothers so it’s hard to get the real picture. This here poll is another example of their beating of the drum for the Democrats’ endeavour.
Most Arab Americans are Christian; only 24% are Muslim.
Its not fair to take away the symbolic images of “Islamic Sword Wielding Arabs Threatening Western Culture” man!!! Damn, if they are that heavy into the whole Christian thing then why do we only see angry mobs in our media… huh??? Its not DEFCON 1 dude, its the good stuff man, green light level 5, Opiate for the Masses see News at Five.