This post is part of Marc H. Ellis’s “Exile and the Prophetic” feature for Mondoweiss. To read the entire series visit the archive page.
The Guardian is reporting dozens more killed in Egypt. We don’t know yet whether martial law is just taking hold or whether it’s unraveling.
This as reports circulate that one of the reasons for President Morsi’s ouster was his liberal policy toward Hamas. If you’re shocked at this revelation, you need a reality check. Egypt’s self-interest is tied to Israel and America not to Hamas and the Palestinians.
We now have a preliminary answer to the question prominent a year ago: Will the Arab Spring benefit the Palestinian cause? So far the answer is a resounding ‘no.’ Over the last year a promising instability has turned threatening and bloody. The next decade will find Egypt and the other Arab nations focused internally.
Palestinians were always a rhetorical luxury anyway. In the post-Arab Spring even pro-Palestinian rhetoric is fading.
The reliance of Egypt on America is absolute. The U. S. go-ahead on the coup makes this clear as does U. S. funding of Egypt’s martial law regime now firmly (back) in place. Egypt’s reliance on Israel is less clear or at least less in the open. One wonders what the links are between the Egyptian and Israeli military. They may be like Israel’s links with the government of Jordan.
You see, Jordan’s self-interest is likewise with Israel over against Palestinians. As usual, Lebanon has several states within, one of them being Hezbollah. But in its self-interested heart of hearts, wouldn’t Lebanon be better off if it could strike an Egypt-like deal with America and Israel? This might be part of America’s interest in de-stabilizing Syria. If the Syrian-Lebanon link is derailed, the next phase of struggle might once again be within Lebanon.
And while we’re at it, if Susan Rice calls on the phone, listen up. Unlike Samantha Power who is disingenuous and ready to confess her sins, Rice takes no prisoners. Rice is the Obama administration’s ‘Decider.’
True, Rice will lay out your options, offer a few helpful suggestions, tell you the ball is in your court and then give you a moment or two to think things over. When time is up, your decision is important. If it goes Rice’s way, you’re in the clear. If it isn’t, it’s off with your head. Ask (former) President Morsi.
What does Rice have to say about the rise of the ultraconservative Islamic party, Al Nour, which the New York Times features on the front page this morning? It seems they are taking the place of the Muslim Brotherhood in a brokered settlement of the Egyptian secular-religious divide. But then on-line, the Times has updated its reporting. Al Nour is suspending its participation in the interim government. It seems that the consequences of martial law are getting in the way.
The thing about martial law, national self-interest, Deciders and religious conservatives is that the ball in the court of power is moveable, elastic, without ethical concerns, always strategic, making no friends and having only allies as long as they serve your purpose.
What kind of Egypt – and world – does that leave us with?
Perhaps the Decider knows the answer to that question, too.
Yes, Obama has figured out the same thing Bush Jr did (both being ivy league grads & all, Obama the smoother affirmative action kid, Bush Jr being the more awkward legacy kid): The deciders decide in the now, make things happen the way they wish, and the pundits flail about for or against in the same NOW, and, eventually, long after the deciders have reaped all the material benefits for their entire lives, the historians will gild the lilly, and then the revisionist historians will give us some actual truth and perspective, the lesson learned without impact, and the cycle will repeat.
“Will Arab Spring benefit the Palestinian cause?”
I have been reflecting on the title. I am not sure how and why would the Palestinians benefit from the Arab Spring.
In pretty much all the countries where the Arab Spring has, to any extent, happened, it has been the people of those countries who have “asked” something of their governments.
Has this happened with the Palestinians? Have they “asked” a change of direction by Hamas of the P.A.? Are they too overwhelmed by the Israeli oppression to realize that the P.A. is part of the problem as well? Are the Palestinian people organized beyond reacting to single instances of Israeli oppression? What would happen if the Palestinian people would have a more confrontational posture toward the P.A.? Would the P.A. squash them? Would they risk a civil war? I not sure how the Gazans would interface and coordinate with the West Bankers.
Maybe we are waiting for an osmotic process whereby the Arab Spring permeates inside of Palestine and drives “enlightened” rulers to make some concessions to the Palestinian people. We know they are not the Israeli or the P.A. or Hamas.
Lots of questions and open issues that are not conducive to an Arab Spring for the Palestinians.
Egypt deporting Palestinians trying to return to Gaza
07/08/2013 – 03:26
http://electronicintifada.net/blogs/ali-abunimah/egypt-deporting-palestinians-trying-return-gaza
Told you there were rats in the woodpile of this revolt.
Evidently this is the culmination of efforts to sour the Egyptian population on Palestine’s plight by blaming food supplies to Gaza for Egypt’s shortages and to turn the secular against it because if the Brotherhood supports Hamas then the Palestine cause should not be supported.
The clamping down on Gaza didn’t take long.
Unfortunately the Egyptains have gained nothing with this latest revolt. ..except the Egyptan military came out of the closet..are they smart enough to notice that?
They’re going to have to protest the military in Revolt III.
“…post Arab Spring…”
That’s definitely a better way to look at it.
I agree with Robert Kagan in Washington Post of July 5, 2013, that this coup is not good news. (part of me also refers to Chemi Shalev in today’s Haaretz, who suspends all judgement because nobody knows, but I have to come down off the fence and I feel this was not good news.) If I wish to emphasize one thing it is this line from Kagan: “Then it put little or no tangible pressure on Morsi to end his undemocratic practices, which might have forestalled the most recent crisis.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-egypt-its-past-time-for-the-obama-administration-to-use-what-power-the-us-has/2013/07/05/86e0bd0a-e5a2-11e2-aef3-339619eab080_story_2.html
Kagan is referring to the Obama administration and they were the ones who had the real power to possibly change Morsi’s undemocratic tendencies and decisions. But I would refer it also to MW for its refusal to speak out against Morsi when the going got tough. MW should have spoken out against Morsi’s actions and MW was Missing in Action.
How can anyone (objective) take MW seriously on I/P, when MW will not step forward and take a solid stand on Egypt or Syria? MW knew how to celebrate the original Tahrir square revolt, but after 17 days MW declared victory and did not admit that there was still hard work to do. Syria is a tougher nut to crack (than Egypt), but then MW should have done an “on the one hand and on the other hand” piece, but instead we hear from Annie Robbins on the side of Assad and from MW himself a comment once in a blue moon. This is MIA. Maybe this is in order to avoid antagonizing anyone from the pro Palestinian movement. But ultimately it shows that MW is a dilettante when it comes to the Middle East. Not serious. It is serious regarding I/P, but regarding the region as a whole and specifically the Arab Spring it is a dilettante.