File under Israel’s changing image: The National Interest ran an article saying Israel can’t live with a nuclear Iran, even when the U.S. could live with a nuclear Soviet Union, co-authored by an Israeli Air Force veteran and a protege of Elliott Abrams. And readers have rebelled against the Israel-centric argument in the National Interest Comments section.
The piece, by Avner Golov and Uri Sadot, is titled, “Why Israel Fears Containment of a Nuclear Iran“, and explains why Israel is exceptional:
For Israelis, their country is too small to comply with existing mutual-deterrence models, because only two or three bombs are what it would take to wipe out their entire country.
Nuclear deterrence theory requires a “stable nuclear dyad”. But Israelis see themselves as faced with not a single enemy that can be deterred, but rather with a broad league of states and nonstate entities who are out to get them.
And the authors justify these concerns:
Israel’s pronounced fears should not be dismissed off-hand. The risk that the positive American experience with containment will not repeat itself in the Middle East is great. Ironically, by opting for containment, America may increase the incentives for both Israel and Iran to take greater risks. For Americans who believe their national interest is better served by containment of a nuclear Iran than by its preemption, it would be prudent to adapt their strategy to the context of the Middle East…
Almost all the comments are negative. I’m cherrypicking, but these are typical/the best. Some excerpts:
Peter:
How about the denuclearisation of the whole Middle East, before it is too late?
Starting with Israel…
TomB. Note the anger at being emotionally blackmailed by how Israelis feel, and the question about why National Interest doesn’t publish arguments on behalf of Iran:
ApqlA ties in the global anti-Semitism study by the ADL:
Israel — a western-style nation inserted against the violent objections of the people who inhabit region where it lives– is a mistake.
It will never be accepted or at be at peace — the result would be the same if its population were Christian and it demanded it be recognized as a “Methodist state.”
Under these conditions, Israel aggravates the emotions and political forces it sees as perpetual hatred of Jews: it’s a self-fulfilling dystopia.
The ADL’s recent piece on global anti-Semitism, intended to show the need for Israel as a “refuge” — actually indicates it’s inherent unsuitability for that purpose.NB: The “hatred” is most intense the closer one gets to Israel. This meens that far from being a “refuge” — Israel is both a target and a source of resentment.
MidwestMet pushes the double standard coddling Israel demands, “like some college freshman”:
While more mature nations deal with their security concerns as they are, Israel behaves like some college freshman, demanding that the world change to what they would like it to be in some ideal world.
China – fast growing economy, largest population in the world, creditor nation, nuclear power. Yet, it has a nuclear Russia to the north, nuclear India to the southwest, and a U.S.- protected South Korea & Japan to its east. It feels encircled.
Russia – also a nuclear power, deals with a nuclear China, expanding NATO, untrustworthy but nuclear Pakistan. It feels encircled.
India – nuclear power, has been the victim of Pakistani-sponsored terror attacks. Bordered by hostile & imploding Pakistan, and fast growing & nuclear China. It feels encircled.
Yet, none of these countries are threatening war, and making that threat for close to two decades. Nor are they demanding that the U.S. go to war on their behalf, or spend money & resources to ensure their security.
Yet, since the Yom Kippur War, Israel demands on U.S. protection have been increasing, while its value to us is decreasing. They get more weapons than any other nations, the cost of which is often at the expense of the US taxpayer. Since 1973, Israel has threatened a nuclear strike to extract weapons from the Nixon Admin, invaded Lebanon, bombed Iraq, Sudan, Syria, the West Bank, & Gaza.
And they are the ones who feel threatened by their neighbors.
Good to see people waking up. Honestly it’s about time, but Hasbara will be there soon enough to fill the bandwith with pro-human-rights-abuses excuses.
But possibly my favourite comment isn’t actually about the nuke issue, it’s from someone calling themselves “epaminondas” decrying the fact that it was illegal (apparently I had to search to find it) in Leicester for Jews to own property until 2001.
The fact this person can’t name the city makes me suspect they just heard some gumf and decided to throw it in. Of course they’re wrong. Obviously. There was a medieval statute to that effect that had never been rescinded but that was over-taken by later laws meaning that it might have been written on a book and not crossed out but the statute was no longer active or legal.
This person though took the existence of this obscure statute as “proof” of worldwide anti-semitism, because apparently, I can only imagine, they thought that no Jews were allowed to live in Leicester until 2001. Which I’m pretty sure would come as something of a surprise to the Jews actually living there. Maybe it could be a loophole so they could reclaim mortgage payments prior to 2001?
Being a little familiar with how British law works it’s infinitely more likely that people just forgot about this incredibly obscure statute – much as they forgot about the Chester statute making it legal to shoot a Welshman from the city walls (now superseded by amongst other things laws against murder), how football on Sundays was illegal because men had to be at archery practice (now superseded by dangerous weapons acts), or how trial by combat was never officially removed from the books until this century (OK there’s a bit of me that regrets that one going out of use).
It’s just more evidence of the paranoia and narcissism of the Zionist mind set – as if all non-Jews can think about all day long is how to persecute Jews. For any Zionists reading this, just for your information – we do actually have other things to do.
Golov and Sadot say, “But Israelis see themselves as faced with not a single enemy that can be deterred, but rather with a broad league of states and nonstate entities who are out to get them”. That is true, but whose fault is that? If the Israelis were to accept and abide by International law and get back behind the 67 borders and bring their illegal settlers home, they would have a good future, acceptance of the Saudi plan in 2002 for instance, backed by all the Islamic states [57] would have been a good start, the Israelis never even responded to it, therefore Israels problems of legitimacy are all of its own making, it can only go downhill now.
This isn’t surprising or even an indication of a public opinion shift. Now if that occurred at, say, the National Review then it would be more meaningful.
The National Interest is largely in the “Realist” FP camp though it has some diversity. Most articles in the magazine were critical of G. W. Bush’s great adventure and carried some of the best arguments against it. Ones that proved quite prescient.
Its readership is more closely aligned with Steve Walt.
The irony of the neocon FUBAR in the Ukraine is that it has benefited Iran. With the prospect of gas supplies from Russia being interrupted, Iran is suddenly beginning to look like an obvious alternative and thus, the perception of Iran is shifting from persona non gratta to viable trading partner.
I suspect that this flurry of hasbara and the latest efforts to sabotage the final deal with Iran are desperate response to this shift.
RE: “For Israelis, their country is too small to comply with existing mutual-deterrence models, because only two or three bombs are what it would take to wipe out their entire country.” ~ Avner Golov and Uri Sadot
MY COMMENT: I guess this means we can forget about the macho Israel of cocksure, swaggering men like Moshe Dayan and Ariel Sharon. Now Israel is suddenly a near-sighted, high-strung, nerdy, 90 pound weakling barely able to carry his own schoolbooks; so everyone should understand why he is so hyper-vigilant, and why he will go so far out of the way to avoid any possible chance that he might be spotted by the neighborhood bully. What a chameleon!
Compare this to Iran, the only country the Persians have. While it is much larger than Israel, it can be completely wiped out by just a small portion of Israel’s nuclear weapons arsenal. Yet, you don’t hear the Iranians constantly whine about Israel’s nuclear arsenal, although they do occasionally propose making the Middle East a nuclear-weapon-free zone only to have the idea summarily dismissed by Israel.