On Monday at the AIPAC policy conference, Israeli Brigadier General Eival Gilady appeared with Rep. Eliot Engel of New York on a panel called, “Israel Today—A Safe and Secure Israel: What Will It Take?” Now working for a peace initiative, Gilady headed the Israeli army's strategic planning division under the last government (per Wikipedia).
A man in the audience asked Gilady what Israel would do if Hamas takes over the West Bank and Iran gets nukes.
Gilady answered that it was highly unlikely that Hamas would take over the West Bank, and offered many smart reasons why. As for Iranian nukes, he offered a tough but opaque answer, nearly dismissive of the idea of negotiations. Here is an extended portion of his answer:
"If you ask what would happen if Iranians were to achieve nuclear capability, I wish I could say to you, they will never achieve it. But I must say there are many things we haven’t discussed. I may not be authorized to discuss in public all of what is being done, and I know that many people are expecting the kind of nuclear strike that Israel would repeat, in 1981 the Osirak strike [on Iraq].
"So let me say the following, A, It is not the first priority to do. It is a very costly decision. I won’t exclude it. But there are many things you can do before. I analyzed this in the past. I called it the Iranian challenge to Israel, and presented it to the Israeli cabinet and all of those. I must tell you I was trying to find in all these links that you can cut the chain and hopefully prevent them from achieving nuclear capability.
"I will give you an example or two. I know it’s only the two of us, no one hears us. [laughter] By giving this example I don’t mean to say that we do it or not. I’ll ask you, if for example, tomorrow, two top nuclear scientists, Iranian nuclear scientists, would disappear, the whole problem would disappear for five, six years, would you do that? [wide applause] I would say yes. You know, I cant go in public in all of what can be done. There are many things that can be done, are being done, and I hope will be effective enough…"
Gilady continued by saying he respected the idea of negotiations but doubted their effectiveness.
"What is going to be achieved? What does it mean to settle the nuclear program? Can they renew any time in the future? In what time frame?
It's a lot more complicated than we’ve seen on the surface.
And I think it's going to be very hard to have productive negotiations with them, if you really want what I believe is necessary-- to have Ahmadinejad never being able-- to exclude the military option... If you want this option, if you want it to be reliable on the table, you have to invest a lot.... refueling, intelligence, satellite, training... And we do. Let’s make it very clear. I hope we don’t get there.
"So if you ask me, can we see a nuclear Iran, and Hamas over the West Bank, and any kind of very bad scenario, What would happen?
I’ll tell you, We’ll fight.
Don’t underestimate the Israeli capability to fight. [big applause] Don’t underestimate. We will do whatever we can to achieve peace, but if we have to fight, we will win.
How much? As long as needed, and we will win, I promise you."
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