Steve Walt has a smart piece on Why They Hate Us in which he adds up all the Muslims we’ve killed in 30 years, 288,000 (including 100,000 Iraqis killed by sanctions and 100,000+ by the recent folly the realists opposed), and how many Americans have died, 10,000, and says that if we want the Muslim world to stop hating us, we should stop answering the problem with violence. A further demonstration of the fact that Realists and Leftists need one another right now, and are learning from one another. Note that Walt’s "we" does not include our proxies, the Israelis, who’ve killed upwards of 20,000.
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Walt is way low on the sanctions, I’ve seen 500,000. And this is an especially outrageous comment:
As a realist Walt knows that the UN and US had no business meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs.
While I appreciate the article in general, I have to agree with you. How many “excess deaths” among Israelis has Israel’s non-compliance with UN resolutions garnered it? None, because unlike the rest of the world (excepting possibly the US, though it’s never been put to the test) Israel gets carte blanche to break international conventions and laws as they see fit.
There were 500,000 children alone who died as a result of sanctions in the 90s.
While I agree with America First that there are very probably some low-ball estimates — which was probably intentional in order to cut as much disputation out of the figures in his article from the Witty end of the opposition spectrum — the core thesis of the article is correct and it floors me that more Americans don’t bother to do the math. I do the math, and I hate doing math.
I think Walt is fatuous in this point, and that Friedman is more accurate.
They are both describing the basis of perception.
Muslims that oppose occupation or any intervention in any way, don’t do so on the basis of numbers. That is an analysis that is possible only as a statistical analysis of the forest. Walt can describe that as he sees and references those analyses.
Friedman is right in that the “narrative” functions at the tree level, on the street, in people’s hearts and minds.
In the west, with very high literacy, constantly in your face press (some propaganda, some information), the forest level is reliably (and unreliably) reported. Absent a ubiquitous and reliable press, and high level of political interest and literacy, the real view is at the tree level, at the “narrative” level.
Sometimes person to person exchange of data is accurate, is more accurate than bias. Most often anecdotal evidence is not, at least not after the third repitition (which then is interpreted as authoritative). The NARRATIVE then controls, how one understands, the pallette of possible relationships that a fact situation can fit into.
In summary, Walt is using a count of apples (statistics) to describe a pile of oranges (perceptions). They are related, but more in a manner to support the importance of narrative, than to dismiss it as entirely subjective or propagandistic.
For Phil.
One thing that irritates me about your posting, is the willingness to shift theses from “Israel is the tail that wags the dog, US”, to “US is the tail that wags the dog, Israel”, as indicated by your use of the term “proxy” to describe Israel.
Which do you understand to be true?
Now, let’s apply Witty’s logic to the 6 million. Do six million trees make a forest? How many of those trees are anecdotal? Apples and oranges?
Oh, were that he only applied his razor to his precious Zionism. But we all know Witty isn’t motivated by any sort of rational integrity.
Siding with Friedman and toeing the neoconservative line, eh? Keep telling us you’re a liberal Witty, and keep leading the charge for war with Iran that will lead to the deaths of thousands more American soldiers — but of course, that doesn’t mean your children are at risk does it?
Large numbers of deaths can lead to large perceptions.
I assume everyone who was killed had relatives to remember them.
A few deaths in an extended family will have a powerful perceptual influence on the rest of the family.
Aw come on, everybody knows they hate us because they’re jealous of us and couldn’t recognize our good intentions if they even tried. Plus, their backward true believers in
a violent religion and wear towels and capes on their heads. And, oh yeah, they use
their left hand as toilet paper. Or is it the right hand? The one they don’t stick out for you to shake.
What’s sad is that the parody you’re making of typical American bigotry, when you really analyze what Witty supports and where he goes, really, he’s only a more sophisticated, verbose version of that same bigotry.
The irony of your posts is that they are far far more consistently defensive of your chosen heroes, than I am in any way towards Israel.
Its why I refer to your posts as conformist more than free thinking.
I like the direction that Walt has gone in the last couple years, clarifying that he did not regard Israel as an existentially invalid state, but that he desired reform of its policies and reform of its relations, and rethinking of US relations.
I criticize his methodology here, ascribing causality to a relationship of data that is skew.
And who am I defending? What hero was I defending in that comment? Quote me the name or the reference to the hero or heroes I was defending.
Its true. You don’t bother to state what or who you support. One can only tell from your silhouettes.
I consider your approach cowardly, in that you don’t expose your own assumptions and theses to the light of day.
LOL!
So let me get this straight. I have chosen heroes, who I chose and support vehemently. But in spite of ordaining them, and defending them very aggressively, you can’t identify them and so therefore these very explicitly chosen heroes I’m supposed to have are indistinct.
And on top of all of that I’m a coward, because you accuse me of designating heroes very specifically… in a way that is just too vague.
You know, Johnny Depp’s going to have nothing on your portrayal of the Mad Hatter.
Richard, I have no trouble exposing my own theses – I want war-criminals such as Hamas rocketeers to face justice in an international tribunal.
How about yourself, do you want prosecutions?
“How about yourself, do you want prosecutions? ”
Of course not. That would only radicalize the Israelis, right Witty?
If there were war-crimes committed, with sufficient verifiable evidence to trace to specific individuals to a level of criminal intent or gross negligence, then I believe that they should be held accountable.
As the Goldstone report recommends, the primary means of that should be internal to Israeli IDF, as it does have a review and accountability process.
And, I believe that the results of that process should be accepted by dissenters, and if you had accused individuals of war crimes publicly that did not undertake war crimes, that you personally (every one of you) should apologize for your judge first, investigate later form of dissent.
“If there were war-crimes committed, with sufficient verifiable evidence to trace to specific individuals to a level of criminal intent or gross negligence, then I believe that they should be held accountable.”
Oh really Witty? And how is that sufficient verifiable evidence to be uncovered when the Israeli government refuses ot han investigation? Israel has rejected any review and accountability process.
Israel undertakes review and accountability. It just isn’t shown internationally.
I personally believe that Israel should address the specific points in the Goldstone report, and conduct a thorough investigation with third party review, and publish its findings.
In that way, Israel will distinguish itself from Hamas and from its critics, and result in an even more professional army than currently.
And, when it does undertake that, I’m assuming that some of the accusations against Israel will bear out and some will not. And, when that happens, I’m expecting you personally, and Phil as well, to personally apologize to ANY that they have publicly demeaned wrongfully.
“Israel undertakes review and accountability. It just isn’t shown internationally.’
So when Israel says they refuse to hold an internal investigation, they are just bluffing are they Witty? The war crimes in Gaza were not abberations, but a relfection of IDF policy, thus the Israeli government is complicit.
So why are you expecting an apology from Phil, when you know damned well that no accountabiulity will ever take place?
I don’t know why you even bother to spout this nonesense. Yes, Israel would distinguish itself by addressing the specific points in the Goldstone report, and conduct a thorough investigation with third party review, and publish its findings, but it won’t.
And I’m glad that you are man enough to admit that Israel has not distinguished itself from Hamas.
But then again, Hamas has distinguished itself from Israel in one important capacity — when Hamas says “cease fire,” they actually mean it.
Touche.
And they also kill a lot less women and children.
The deaths the US are responsible for (ie – excess mortality) are ten times that, easily.
UNICEF states that 338000 under fives die every year in Afghanistan, how much of that is excess mortality ? I’ve no idea, but a quote from an aid worker in the NY Times who was fleeing Afghanistan in 2001 may give us an idea – “The country was on a lifeline and we just cut the line.” Samina Ahmed also wrote in 2001 in the Harvard journal International Security that “millions of Afghans are at grave risk of starvation”.
The whole thing is classic Walt, he desperately wants to tell the truth but is well aware of the constraints of his audience who largely just want something to hit the other side over the head with, they’re not particularly interested in the actual deaths, you’ll never hear the term ‘apology’ or ‘reparations’ from any of them. I’m afraid that’s the only sense in which the piece can be said to be ‘smart’.
Saddam Hussein clearly deserves much of the blame for these “excess deaths,” insofar as he could have complied with Security Council resolutions and gotten the sanctions lifted or used the “oil for food” problem properly.
This passage is vaguely clever as it endorses the ‘year dot’ narrative and pretends the US is not directly responsible for Saddam Hussein, if he ‘deserves blame’ (and he undoubtedly does) then it’s as an American proxy, everything he did could have been avoided. He’d still be living as a nobody opposite a cafe in Egypt if the Americans kept their noses out of things that didn’t concern them.
The article also ignores the fact (which in fairness has largely been forgotten) that during the sanctions period, there was constant bombing (there used to be a good website that would take reports, I think off the USAF website and chronicle the bombing raids) to all intents desert storm never ended for the Iraqis but as far as the Americans were concerned there was no risk to them, so the ‘war’ had ended. I also noticed it doesn’t even mention Al Shifa, possibly because the numbers for it are impossible to estimate, could be none, could be tens of thousands.
Good points, DOTW. If Saddam deserves blame, April Glaspie deserves more.
April Glaspie … Wow, that’s a blast from the past. The woman who conveniently disappeared from the public as Iraq entered Kuwait, presumably so as not to complicate the story with pesky facts while fabricating an alternate version of those last meetings.
Had the timing been slightly different, she probably would’ve been the first web media star.
more people should be aware of Dennis Ross’s role in ensuring that US involved itself in the conflict amongst the Arabs — Iraq, Kuwait, Egypt, Saudi Arabia — that descended into war due to the manipulations of the US, in the persons of James Baker, Dennis Ross and Henry Kissinger.
The Arabs were feuding over Saddam’s demands — pleas, really — that the other Arab states help Iraq pay its war debts incurred in the US-sponsored and Israel-benefited Iraq war on Iran. Kuwait responded by lowering the price of oil, thus further constraining the Iraq economy. Egyptian and other diplomats were attempting to resolve the insult and impasse, but Baker/Ross et al twisted the arms of the Arab peace makers, persuading them instead to accept the generous assistance of GHBW’s coalition to make war on Iraq to drive them out of Kuwait — and to humanely rescue all those babies tossed out of their bassinets.
Actually Psychopathic god, there’s other dimensions to that conflict. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia had given loans to Iraq to finance the war with Iran. This financially crippled Iraq. The Saudi’s were grateful that Iraq has stemmed the Iranian threat, so they forgave the loans. Kuwait, who also gained from the war, demanded that Iraq repay the loans, with interest, while they weer slant drilling into Iraq’s oil deposits.
Just to compound the extent of Walt’s/IBC’s lowball estimates regarding the 2003 invasion, there are around 50000 violent deaths in the United States every year, obviously there are also exponentially more people, but it’s something to bear in mind.
Delurking for a moment to make two points. First, you guys jumping on Walt for his lowball estimate are ignoring the fact that he agrees the true number is probably much higher, and it might be well over one million.
As for Friedman, he won’t take in facts that conflict with his fervant belief in American nobility and righteousness, so if Muslims hate us the problem is with them, not with us. The fact that Witty defends him is unsurprising–they think in similar ways.
IBC readily admit that their numbers are not the whole picture, yet the elite media use them as the ‘official’ count despite the fact that surveys using US government methodology produce a number almost ten times that of IBC.
Planting proverbial flags in this manner is dangerous regardless of any associated caveats.
And at any rate, considering how glaring a comparison can be made with the low-ball estimate, Walt is still making one hell of a cogent point.
Walt needs to sharpen up on his math skills. As I said previously, they M&W, did a stellar job on the lobby, however their treatment of US policy in the Middle East was almost somewhat laughable. This might be a sign of what you will get with the ‘realist” school in regard to US culpability.
The question is why does he feel the need (or feel the freedom) to present the least number, the most conservative figures. And his acceptance of the rationale for various conflicts is far from ‘realist’ it is accepting Washington’s popular media narrative. He fails to interrogate his own imperial assumptions, otherwise I would ponder is it an elegant conceptual piece on the lack of power of the Islamic lobby? (Would he get away with such underreporting on figures for the Holocaust? Not to mention including figures for troop deaths).
PS. As people in Latin America have pointed out to me, it is not ‘America’ it is the USA, America is a big continent of which the US is but one nation.
PPS. And a belligerent racist such as Friedman being accepted as a legitimate voice and deserving of considered responses is the real issue. The genocidal racism that underlies all imperial projects and its apologists.
Yeah, I stumbled upon this realization as a kid — I’ve always been something of a pedant when it comes to semantics — and I try to make correct usage. In spite of that, I can pretty much guarantee without even looking back that I’ve trampled on that myself in the past, even when posting here. US exceptionalism is pretty much encoded into US dialect — and if I didn’t need any more of a demonstration of that, I almost typed “American” instead of “US” right then and there, by default.
Yes, me too (and I’m in the UK, the pervasive English speaking assumptions!), I am trying to amend my thinking!
Maybe Phil could invite a guest post from-
link to iranaffairs.com
No comments on the apples to oranges comparison?
I don’t know. Does your mealy-mouthed, passive-aggressive farce of a comment just now count?