The west is now reckoning with the ways that the Gaza conflict changed the political terrain of the Middle East. From Why Israel Didn’t Win, by Adam Shatz in the LRB (thanks to Idrees Ahmad):
That Netanyahu stopped short of a ground war, and gave in to key demands at the Cairo talks, is an indication not only of Egypt’s growing stature, but of Israel’s weakened position. Its relations with Turkey, once its closest ally in the region and the pillar of its ‘doctrine of the periphery’ (a strategy based on alliances with non-Arab states) have deteriorated with the rise of Erdogan and the AKP. The Jordanian monarchy, the second Arab government to sign a peace treaty with Israel, is facing increasingly radical protests. And though Israel may welcome the fall of Assad, an ally of Hizbullah and Iran, it is worried that a post-Assad government, dominated by the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brothers, may be no less hostile to the occupying power in the Golan: the occasional rocket fire from inside Syria in recent days has been a reminder for Israel of how quiet that border was under the Assad family. Israeli leaders lamented for years that theirs was the only democracy in the region. What this season of revolts has revealed is that Israel had a very deep investment in Arab authoritarianism. The unravelling of the old Arab order, when Israel could count on the quiet complicity of Arab big men who satisfied their subjects with flamboyant denunciations of Israeli misdeeds but did little to block them, has been painful for Israel, leaving it feeling lonelier than ever. It is this acute sense of vulnerability, even more than Netanyahu’s desire to bolster his martial credentials before the January elections, that led Israel into war.
The Palestinians understand that they are no longer facing Israel on their own: Israel, not Hamas, is the region’s pariah. The Arab world is changing, but Israel is not. Instead, it has retreated further behind Jabotinsky’s ‘iron wall’, deepening its hold on the Occupied Territories, thumbing its nose at a region that is at last acquiring a taste of its own power, exploding in spasms of high-tech violence that fail to conceal its lack of a political strategy to end the conflict. Iron Dome may shield Israel from Qassam rockets, but it won’t shield it from the future.
To this list I would add the uplifting of Hamas, as 2006 uplifted Hezbollah, and the further discrediting of the two-state paradigm inside Palestinian society.
Also, the point I find most resonant above is Israel’s dependence on Arab dictators. The “leftists” on the streets of Jerusalem who praised Mubarak to me— astounding. And of course the U.S. was complicit in that suppression of the popular will; and the role of the Israel lobby in that suppression is among its greatest negative achievements.
Points that are also reinforced by Levy. Everyone sees the new realities….the question is does Israel.
http://www.lobelog.com/daniel-levy-on-palestinian-domestic-politics/
Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator, provides seven takeaways from the Gaza ceasefire………
“”Let’s keep this short. Hamas-run Gaza in the midst of conflict with Israel has just played host to the Secretary General of the Arab League, the Prime Minister of Egypt and the Foreign Ministers of Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia and Sudan.
Prior to this escalation, regional developments had obviously shifted in Hamas’s favor, including a visit to Gaza by the Emir of Qatar and the commitment to provide some $400 million.
Hamas has again proven that it can create a degree of mutual deterrence with Israel, that it is taken seriously by Israel, and can bargain effectively with Israel, from securing prisoner releases to securing commitments barring IDF incursions into Palestinian territory, right back to claiming success in having driven Israel from Gaza. Just to rub it in, on the same day that the IDF was committing not to enter Gaza, its troops were busy conducting raids and arrests throughout the West Bank.
What’s more, Gaza is likely to witness more rapid economic growth than the West Bank in the next period, not only because there is a lower base to start from, but also given the likelihood of delivery of assistance commitments from Turkey, Qatar and elsewhere (initially for reconstruction—think of the rebuilding in southern Lebanon and Beirut neighbourhoods after 2006).
The Palestinian balance has shifted, full stop.
Fatah and the PLO cannot be dismissed in Palestinian politics, but their longstanding approach of currying American favor, in the hope of delivering Israel absent the creation of Palestinian leverage and assets, has run its course. They appear to have missed the boat in leading a popular campaign of unarmed struggle and the PA’s security cooperation with Israel looks distinctly unseemly in the eyes of many Palestinians. Palestinian unity remains an obvious need but that is far from easy to secure.””
Duh.
It’s a double dependency, by way of literal tax on US taxpayer street (direct and indirect). and by indirect tax on Egyptian street. All for a tiny group of people who claim that right. Some day the streets will call an accounting, as they always has around the world.
I’ve linked below to an interesting article from the English version of the Lebanese paper Al Akhbar. The paper is very favourably disposed towards the Palestinian resistance, but the editor – pointing to the lack of genuine Arab support and indications that Hamas may be considering abandoning the ‘resistance axis’ – believes that this war has exposed serious problems faced by the Palestinian resistance.
From the article:
”There is also impatience in the US and Israel to push things further – to get the resistance in Palestine to break off its relationship with Iran and, by extension, Syria and Hezbollah. The aim would be to employ Hamas’ popular legitimacy and record of struggle in the confrontation with the opposing camp, seeing as it is the involvement of the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah axis in resisting US and Israeli occupation that gives it sway in the wider Arab and Islamic worlds.
Are forecasts like these well-founded?
The harsh truth is that there are growing indications that such prospects need to be taken seriously. We need to take into account that Arab attitudes to the Palestinian cause and resistance are changing. It must be noted by the pro-resistance camp, for example, that not one Arab capital witnessed a serious demonstration in solidarity with the Gaza Strip.”
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/new-hamas-challenges-resistance
Israel is controlled by reactionaries just like alabama in 1968 and time has moved on beyond that reactionary ideology. Bibi is just another white racist.
The “leftists” on the streets of Jerusalem who praised Mubarak to me– astounding.
It is lamentable that the Israelis are still focused on Mubarak. But how about some comment about the moderates protesting Mursa’s attempted seizure of total power in Egypt. (maybe only temporary, but the moderates are quite upset.) The commitment to Egyptian democracy on this web site is wobbly. When protests erupt against Mursa, nary a word.