This is part of Marc H. Ellis’s “Exile and the Prophetic” feature for Mondoweiss. To read the entire series visit the archive page.
So I was wrong. President Obama does have a plan to cut off American aid to Egypt. Possibly. That is, if things keep going the way they’re going. Whatever that means in the real world.
But I can’t get too down on myself for missing the President’s aid plan. Obama has played it close to his vest. In fact, he’s kept it a secret. It was leaked to the press only yesterday by Vermont’s Senator Leahy, no doubt with the permission of the President. This raises the question as to whether Obama has lost his vaunted oratorical skills along with the transparency he promised to be the hallmark of his presidency.
Actually I’m surprised Obama was able to keep his secret for so long, what with the broad sweep of NSA spying. Or perhaps the Snowden effect has taken its toll and possible leakers are keeping a low profile. Now I’m wondering if Obama’s secret plan may have been found out during the detention and questioning of Glenn Greenwald’s partner at Heathrow Airport yesterday. Does Snowden still have access to the President’s email?
The pundits tell us that American aid is paltry, especially compared to our other Middle Eastern allies. They’re pouring billions of petrol dollars into an autocratic regime just like theirs. And who needs American security intelligence when Israel can supply everything it receives from the US free of charge?
This doesn’t solve the mystery of why Obama kept our possible aid cut-off secret. The billion dollar question remains. Perhaps that’s one of the conundrums the Arab Spring helped birth.
With Mubarak on the road to freedom and summary execution the rule of the day, Egypt’s devolution into a fascist dictatorship has arrived. If Egypt emerged from its present travails within a decade it would be a miracle. What that portends for Egyptians is obvious. So, too, with Israel and the Palestinians. Israel is part and parcel of the revived autocratic-led region. Palestinians will be neglected, contained and disciplined.
The Arab Spring is the September 11th of the second decade of the 21st century – a springboard for a decade of retrenchment, repression and war all around. Egypt’s plight is a gift to Israel. For Palestinians, Egypt’s plight is the last nail in their coffin.
In the Middle East that is evolving think about Palestine circa 2023. During these – also quite secret – Israeli-Palestinian negotiations think what is and what isn’t on the table. Though we primarily focus on Jerusalem and the West Bank in the present round of negotiations, the situation in Egypt has led to a further crackdown – and collusion with Israel – on Gaza. If there’s little if anything for Palestinians in Jerusalem and the West Bank, there’s less for Gaza.
This doesn’t bode well for the Palestinians living in the broader Middle East either. When the siege within Palestine intensifies and Middle East dictatorships feel threatened, Palestinians become convenient scapegoats. Israel is only too happy to join the hunt.
On the bright side, there’s always Europe. The New York Times reports that the European Union is preparing an emergency session on suspending aid to Egypt. As you may have noticed European morality has ascended as its power in the world declines. Nonetheless, when you read what’s on the EU’s mind, it’s depressing.
Europe’s historical amnesia is amazing – as if its various empires didn’t carve up the Middle East into its present configuration. Of course, that doesn’t stop it from weighing in on the present crisis. Describing Europe’s diplomatic advantage over the US, an EU official is quoted as follows: “Unlike Washington, we were seen as having no historical baggage, no hidden agenda, and we used it to see everyone. They saw the added value we could bring by talking to everyone. That was the European advantage.”
Where does that leave the EU in terms of policy? Another EU official responded – at least in his mind – clearly and forcefully: “It is absolutely important for Europe’s foreign relations to be engaged constructively in Egypt and at the same time respond to the situation.”
Can President Obama’s secret aid plan and Europe’s constructive engagement trump the will of alliance between Israel and Middle Easter dictators? Stay tuned – with little hope.
“Can President Obama’s secret aid plan and Europe’s constructive engagement trump the will of alliance between Israel and Middle East[] dictators?”
Come on. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are pumping 12 billion dollars into Egypt’s Central Bank. It does not matter who Israel supports when that is happening.
And it’s not an alliance. Once again, you expect Israel to act as no other country would, and support a government that was openly hostile to it. No Western country would do that, and the other countries in the region would not either. The West is happy this happened; they’ve essentially been silent ever since it did.
Is there now a plan to suspend ‘all’ aid?
Last I saw the State Dept was going to suspend the ‘economic’ portion of the aid but not the military aid.
So I was wrong. President Obama does have a plan to cut off American aid to Egypt. Possibly. That is, if things keep going the way they’re going. Whatever that means in the real world.
It means his legal advisors can read the Appropriations clauses in Article 1 § 7 and § 9 of the Constitution. They say appropriations come from the Congress, not the White House and that “No money shall be drawn from the treasury, but in consequence of appropriations made by law.”
The laws require a cutoff of all foreign and military assistance whenever human rights abuses are committed by elements of the armed forces of a country or when the elected head of a foreign government is removed by military decree. Full Stop. Under the terms of the appropriations law, the cutoff is not made contingent on any Presidential determination. Presidential certifications are only required to restore any funding in the future.
This raises the question as to whether Obama has lost his vaunted oratorical skills along with the transparency he promised to be the hallmark of his presidency.
It means he can still wet his finger and see which way the wind is blowing. Netanyahu can too. The latter told his cabinet to shut up about the US aid cutoff after a New York Times article said Israel and AIPAC were responsible for giving the Egyptian Generals assurances of continued funding and orchestrating uninterrupted aid behind the scenes in Washington, while hundreds of demonstrators were being massacred.
Right now, polls show the majority of Americans want the aid cutoff. A lot of their elected lawmakers have discovered that fact and taken to the Sunday news shows announcing their intention to see to it that Obama obeys the law. Remember Obama said MAKE ME DO IT.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the Egyptian rebel movement that collected 22 million signatures and conducted the demonstrations to remove Morsi from power, has started a petition to reject any further aid from the USA and terminate the Camp David Accords. Saudi Arabia has guaranteed that it will make up any funding shortfall if the US aid remains cutoff.
Plan??? Oh please, not another “plan” hatched by these feckless jackasses in Washington DC and their vampire Israeli counterparts. What “plan”, hatched in DC/Israel, has been constructive in terms of Middle East stability, or our own national security here at home? There is no “plan”. These fumbling asses in DC are now simply reacting to events and situations as they unfold, occurring in no small part because of the previously launched “plans” of the last two decades that have been proven to be disastrous abject failures. It has tumbled out of control in the middle east, and DC has neither a “plan”, nor a credible excuse for the failures of the last two decades. If there is a silver lining, it might be that this murderous little sand pit known as Israel might be taken down a knotch and taught to behave itself. But probably not. I imagine Israel, when confronted with the fruits it has sown, will simply attempt to incinerate the crop in a salvo of gas, cluster munitions, and white phosphorous….and besides, there’s always the nuclear option. Theres no Muslim problem a massive dose of military superiority can’t solve, right? I mean hey, look how successful its been thus far.
Hostage, if the Camp David agreements were terminated, this would also release Israel of their obligations to the agreements. Other than the aid flowing into both countries based on those agreements, could it also put of chain of trade and security agreements to an end?
For example: Not sure if Israel has too much interest in the Sinai, but as Israel still essentially controls much of it (only Israel has the maps of the mines, etc.) and I would imagine some voices in Israel wishing to assert control over the Sinai. A termination of Camp David could have huge implications before equilibrium in the ME is established again.
And as that unfolds, it may be difficult for Israel to garner all the support it did in the past decades. The cold war is over.
Just thinking out loud here, but am curious to your thoughts/speculation on what it would mean IF Egypt terminated their agreements?