Will Obama meet with Iranian president Hassan Rouhani?

Next week President Obama and Iranian president Hassan Rouhani will be speaking at the U.N. General Assembly on the same day. According to the Guardian the leaders may be meeting face to face, the first such meeting between a US president and his Iranian counterpart since Carter met the Shah in 1977. But then, maybe not. The White House is saying, “currently”, there are no plans to meet.

What does this mean, or what could it portend? In an ABC interview with George Stephanopoulos taped September 13, days after the US made a deal with Russia to stave off a US strike on Syria Obama said he’d been in communication with Rouhani.

The chatterings over Iran have been consistent as a result of the US/Russian deal on Syrian chemical weapons.  Many have wondered if the Iranians would draw a lesson from the US pullback on a Syrian strike, and Stephanopoulos queried Obama about it. Couched between the usual talking points Obama stated “they should draw from this lesson is that there is the potential of resolving these issues diplomatically.”

From the Transcript:

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS:

What do you think Iran makes of all this?  You mentioned Iran.  Do you think they can look at all this and say, “Maybe all options aren’t on the table, you’re not willing to use force?”

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

No, I think– I think the Iranians, who we communicate with– in– indirect ways–

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS:

Have you reached out personally to the new president?

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

I have.  And– and he’s reached out to me.  We haven’t spoken– directly.  But–

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS:

Letters.

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

Yeah.  And– I think what the Iranians understand is that– the nuclear issue– is a far larger issue for us than the chemical weapons issue, that– the threat against Iran– against Israel, that a nuclear Iran poses, is much closer to our core interests.  That– a nuclear arms race in the region– is something that would be profoundly destabilizing.

And so I– my suspicion is that the Iranians recognize they– they shouldn’t draw a lesson that we haven’t struck– to think we won’t strike Iran.  On the other hand, what is– what– they should draw from this lesson is that there is the potential of resolving these issues diplomatically.  And–

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS:

You think they’re there?  You think they believe that?

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

I think they recognize, in part, because of the– the extraordinary sanctions that we placed on them, that the world community is united when it comes to wanting to prevent a nuclear arms race in the region.  And– you know, negotiations with the Iranians is always difficult.  I– I think this new president is not gonna suddenly make it easy.  But– you know, my view is that if you have– both a credible threat of force, combined with a rigorous diplomatic effort, that, in fact– you can– you can strike a deal.

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS:

But–

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA:

And– and I– and I hold out– I hold out that hope.

The Guardian’s Diplomatic editor Julian Borger hopefully noted the Obama/Rouhani meeting “could open way to diplomatic end to Iranian nuclear standoff” and interviewed Trita Parsi over the likelihood of a face to face:

US officials were sceptical about a Rouhani meeting, but some observers said the Geneva deal on Syria’s chemical weapons has opened new space for global diplomacy.

Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council and an expert on US-Iran diplomacy, said “I think there is a chance [of a meeting]. It would be a strong political push for movement. If Obama got involved, it would be the infusion of political will needed to reach an agreement.

“Tehran is already claiming some of the credit for the Syria deal. Rouhani needs to show that through his diplomatic efforts he has already avoided a war. He is desperate in his first six months to show his approach has paid more dividends than the hardline approach of his predecessor.”

Parsi added that if Obama was to meet Rouhani it was likely to be an orchestrated encounter in a corridor, rather than a sit-down talk, “to give both sides deniability”.

The Iranians appear quite enthusiastic in Borger’s article. Fun tweet exchange:

Tehran took the Foreign Office by surprise, tweeting on Rouhani’s English-language feed that the president would also be prepared to meet Hague, something the UK had not even requested.

“Tehran has responded positively to UK’s request. President Rouhani’s meeting w/WilliamJHague on the sidelines of UNGA has been confirmed,” the tweet said.

“We would be happy to meet,” a Foreign Office spokeswoman said, “but we have had nothing formal from Tehran about it.”

Diplomats said that the tweet reflected the new Iranian government’s eagerness to make diplomatic headway on the nuclear issue….

(Hat tip MW commenter NickJOCW)