It is now commonplace for people to predict what John Mearsheimer said six months ago: that if there aren't two states, and fast, Israel is headed for apartheid-struggle in the eyes of the world, with American Jews supporting it; and the 2 state solution doesn't look very likely. But after Obama's victory and the Rahm Emanuel pick, Mearsheimer said to me, The cat is out of the bag! Meaning the discussion had changed. I asked him if this changed the odds on his grim scenario.
Mearsheimer:
My sense is that it is becoming increasingly apparent to all sorts of people, but especially to American Jews, that Israel is headed for big trouble, mainly because it continues to create a Greater Israel and deny the Palestinians a state of their own.
There will be two reactions. Lots of supporters will start thinking of ways to get Israel to accept a two-state solution.
This is what J Street is all about. Lots of others will redouble their
efforts to defend Israel, in large part because they favor a Greater
Israel and believe they can dominate the discourse here as they have in
the past, thus insulating Israel from criticism.
Which side wins?
I used to think the bad guys would win for as far into the future as I
could see. But I am not so sure any more. The internet changes things so
much, because it makes it possible for the Phil Weiss's of the world to
reach a huge number of people. The lobby simply cannot dominate the
discourse the way it used to. For example, I have been amazed by how
much coverage the Rahm Emanuel-Israel connection has gotten on the
internet, and it is now beginning to seep into the mainstream media.
And if you are a Gramscian and believe that ideas matter, this change
in the discourse could be quite profound. Simply put, it is getting
very hard to defend Israel's behavior these days and it looks like it
will get increasingly difficult with time.
All of this is to say I am not sure where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is headed, but there are some positive signs.
