How Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral win in NYC could impact national politics

Zohran Mamdani’s historic win will undoubtedly have reverberations far beyond New York City, but what will they look like?

Will progressive challengers triumph in upcoming races? Will we see more criticisms of Israel from politicians? What role will the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) play in New York races? How will the Israel lobby adapt to new political realities?

Mondoweiss U.S. correspondent Michael Arria spoke with political consultant Peter Feld about what comes next and what races to keep an eye on in the coming months.

Mondoweiss: I have seen some people downplay the potential impact of Mamdani’s win. They say New York City is an outlier because it has a large immigrant community, a sizable Muslim population, an organized left, etc.

This was the take from many on the pro-Israel side, including the lobbying group Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI), which had a tweet where they insisted that Mamdani’s victory wasn’t reflective of the rest of the nation.

How would you respond to this narrative?

Feld: I think they’re ignoring a lot of what Mamdani’s appeal was to begin with. I’m sure that there are people in disparate states that are still going to respond to a change message, an affordability message. But if their goal is really to say that a pro-Palestinian message won’t work in other states, I think they’re just ignoring polling we’ve discussed before that shows support for Israel dropping across many categories, certainly among Democrats, old and young, and even among younger Republicans. 

I think Mamdani’s win will have an impact on states that aren’t like New York. There are states that do have large Arab and Muslim populations, like Michigan, where there’s a tight Senate race going on right now. 

There are many areas and districts that do have a large progressive population and a significant number of communities of color, where the landscape is evolving. You have a congressional challenge in Tennessee with Justin Pearson, and Cori Bush is trying to make a comeback in Missouri. I think we’re going to see that Palestine plays in a lot of places outside of New York.

I’d like to discuss the upcoming races in New York.

You have NYC City Council member Chi Ossé challenging Rep. Hakeem Jeffries. At the time we’re speaking, it’s unclear whether the DSA will back him, and there has been debate about what the organization should do. We have City Comptroller Brad Lander, who we think will challenge Dan Goldman in the 10th District. We have community organizer Darializa Avila Chevalier looking to oust Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the 13th. We have public defender Dalourny Nemorin and former State Representative Michael Blake vying for Ritchie Torres’ seat.

What’s standing out to you in these races, and what should people know about them?

It seems like Chi Ossé’s challenge to Hakeem Jeffries depends on getting DSA’s support. Ossé is a hard decision for DSA. It’s a disciplined socialist organization that doesn’t just put out an endorsement on paper; it only endorses when it can commit fully. DSA won’t get involved in a race like NY-8 without making a determination that if they do, they’ll be able to provide the necessary organizing capacity to make the race successful, and that it will ultimately help overall organizing and put socialists in office.

Much of the case against Ossé running hinges on doubts about whether he can actually win, since Jeffries is popular in his district. There are several ways to assess whether it’s feasible. DSA is, foremost, a ground organization. DSA looks at New York’s 8th and asks, ‘Okay, where are the votes going to come from to beat Jeffries? How are we going to pull those voters?’

I’m a pollster, so my perspective is different. I ask, what messages can most effectively drive down Hakeem Jeffries’ job approval rating with Democratic primary voters in his district, which is really the key metric that governs whether an incumbent is going to be reelected? According to one poll, Jeffries has a job approval rating of 70%. 

I treat that number as changeable. What story do we tell so that voters decide Jeffries should be replaced? What will change people’s impressions of him? Do we need to tell the stories of people in Gaza, and show how Hakeem Jeffries is connected to the atrocities that we’ve seen in the last two years? 

Because to me, the genocide is a turnkey issue. There have been some good analyses of District 8, including a very thorough one by Michael Lange. But I think even he doesn’t gives full weight to how much the genocide has truly transformed the political environment in many places, especially in Black communities, other communities of color, and for young voters.

I hope the DSA endorsement for Ossé goes through. Beating Hakeem Jeffries is really an existential need. If the House flips and Jeffries retains his seat and becomes Speaker, it will significantly set the Democrats back 30 years. His style of leadership is a complete mismatch to the moment we’re in, and he’s very much captured by the Zionists. He has often been the number one or two recipient of AIPAC-related money among Democrats in Congress.

The establishment has a certain amount of leverage right now in this high-stakes moment where an openly socialist, anti-Zionist mayor is about to take office in New York. Yesterday, we saw Mayor-elect Mamdani both come out against the Ossé campaign and announce the reappointment of NYPD Chief Jessica Tisch.

To me, those represent two of the establishment’s key demands. One: retaining Tisch, who is deeply involved in co-training between the Israeli military and the NYPD, and the mass surveillance of Muslims and repression of pro-Palestine protests in New York. The establishment strongly insisted on her reappointment for their cooperation with the Mamdani transition. 

The second demand, I believe, was insulating Hakeem Jeffries from a challenge. As Speaker, and the country’s most powerful elected Democrat, Jeffries would be a powerful firewall against rising support for Palestine among Democrats.

Elsewhere, in NY-15 in the Bronx, progressives have been hoping for a challenge to Richie Torres. He is clearly mismatched for his district, one of the poorest in the country. Instead of focusing on affordable housing in the Bronx, he helps Israel destroy housing in Gaza.

There are now two challengers. One is public defender Dalourny Nemorin, who belongs to DSA, but it’s unclear whether she will receive DSA support. The other, Michael Blake, is a former elected official, an Assembly member who came in second to Richie Torres when Torres was first elected in 2020. He also ran — not strongly, but impressively — for mayor. He was allowed in one debate and really wiped the floor with Andrew Cuomo. He’s a very impressive speaker and has just received the endorsement of former Mayor Bill de Blasio. There’s reason to believe that Michael Blake might gain traction.

The challenge to Dan Goldman in NY-10 is not yet clear. There’s a seeming conflict between the DSA-endorsed candidate, Alexa Avilés, and Comptroller Brad Lander, who is reportedly running for Congress after not securing a key appointment in the Mamdani administration. Yuh-Line Niou, who nearly beat Goldman in 2022, is also a possible challenger. 

Avilés is a strong candidate, and she’s resolutely anti-Zionist, while Lander is a liberal Zionist, so DSA would like to see Lander give way. However, Lander has significant support from progressive institutions beyond the DSA. He is a citywide official who ran a significant race for mayor, gained considerable recognition for his efforts to boost Mamdani, and once represented a significant portion of the congressional district on the City Council. There is an expectation that something will be worked out, because as soon as you have two or more opponents splitting the vote, it almost automatically re-elects the incumbent.

Moving beyond New York, what upcoming elections should people be paying attention to?

I think the Michigan Senate race is likely to be affected the most by the “Mamdani effect.” One candidate is Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, who ran strongly before for governor, and who is in a tight three-way race, slightly behind two of the other candidates: Haley Stevens, who won with DMFI and AIPAC support for Congress in 2022 when she was was when she was co-districted with Andy Levin. She’s clearly the resolutely pro-Israel candidate. Then there’s state Senator Mallory McMorrow, a popular mainstream progressive. The three of them are fairly tightly bunched in the low-to-mid 20 percent range. 

But Michigan is where there was significant defection from Kamala Harris in Dearborn and other Arab communities last year. And that, combined with the Mamdani victory, might give El-Sayed a significant amount of momentum that is difficult for polling to capture. I think he’s making that point right now.

There is also Justin Pearson versus Steve Cohen in Tennessee.

Justin Pearson is a very young state representative who gained national notoriety when he was thrown out of office by the Republicans for taking part in an anti-gun protest on the House floor, and then won his seat back. He’s challenging Steve Cohen, who’s very pro-Israel, but there are rumors that Cohen may decide to drop out, as we saw Nancy Pelosi drop out in San Francisco.

In recent months, we have seen an increasing amount of public criticism of AIPAC. It feels like the Israel Lobby is no longer a third rail issue in these races and mainstream politicians are being challenged over the issue.

Is AIPAC actually in trouble? Will they have to adapt their operation in some way, as support for Israel continues to crater among the public, or will we see more of the same from them in terms of their election involvement?

AIPAC has demonstrated a certain adaptability over the past several cycles. In the 2022 cycle, they were focused more on punishing the liberal Zionists, the Andy Levins of the world. During the Bowman and Bush challenges, it was all about raw power. 

I think AIPAC will continue to do a certain amount of shape-shifting. Now that they are seen as politically radioactive, I believe they will shift to trying to “win ugly.” Meaning, they’re going to find ways to cling on and make sure to protect their minimum core needs. Some of that will include banking their wins with the Trump administration, which, despite the MAGA split and mild pressure from Democrats, seems to be undeterred in fulfilling Israel’s wishlist, like pushing the so-called Trump plan for Gaza through the UN Security Council.

Shielding its strongest allies and protecting them will also be a significant part of AIPAC’s strategy. That’s why it’s so important to them to squash any challenge to Jeffries. If Democrats win the House, they want a resolutely pro-Israel Speaker who can hold off pressure on Israel. Jessica Tisch continuing to run the NYPD is in the same vein. She’s mandated antisemitism training for officers that classifies keffiyas and watermelons as “hate symbols,” and she gave ICE a pro-Palestine protester’s sealed arrest record.

Rep. Seth Moulton (D-MA) is trying to take Ed Markey’s Senate seat in Massachusetts. He recently announced he’s going to stop taking AIPAC donations, making him the fourth House member to do so. What did you make of that move?

I think people like Moulton are trying to Netanyahu-ize AIPAC. They want to isolate AIPAC as the “designated villain,” even though there are so many other ways for pro-Israel donors to get money into campaigns. Just like certain politicians are always criticizing Netanyahu and trying to cordon him off from Israel, I think there are going to be politicians who reject AIPAC to deflect from their continued support for Israel.

The walls are cracking everywhere. Politicians are suddenly being forced to defend their support for Israel on mainstream shows.

I think you’re going to see the biggest whiplash with the presidential contenders. It’s a culture shock almost, because whether it’s Newsom, Buttigieg or Harris if she runs again, most of these people are not used to navigating a world where support for Israel is a liability instead of an asset.

What about J Street? They’re obviously small potatoes in terms of spending, when compared to AIPAC, but I am wondering what you think about the influence of liberal Zionist groups at this moment.

It seems like J Street has also recently shifted its public stances on some issues, to try to maintain some ground coming out of the Mamdani win.

J-Street is in an untenable position. They are defending an ever more contradictory position. They’re facing an Overton window that’s shifting, so they have to tolerate something like Mamdani’s support for BDS, because they have to live in a world where liberal Jews, who they consider their base, are supporting Mamdani. If they want to operate in the Mamdani sphere, they can’t say BDS is disqualifying.

This is the same position that Brad Lander is in. Currently, there’s still some space for that position, but it’s shrinking. You can find it online. You can find it in Brooklyn. You can find it with all the events that Brad Lander has been doing with the coexistence group, Standing Together. But I personally don’t think that they can stay relevant. I think the shrinking of liberal Zionism will put more pressure on Israel because, up till now, the main function of liberal Zionism has been to protect Israel.