Bruce Wolman writes:
A few weeks back, Efraim Inbar, an advisor to Benjamin Netanyahu (and also director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies) was rather optimistic when he spoke to New York Times reporter Isabel Kershner about relations between the new Israeli government and the Obama administration.
“As long as Hamas is in power in Gaza, we are off the hook.” Under these circumstances, “nobody can really pressure Israel to do anything.”
About the same time, Inbar sat down for an interview with journalist Helen Cobban. As the headline on this site put that interview: 'We will play with the Americans – senior Likud strategist.'
How much difference two months can make! Inbar is no longer thinking Israel can amuse the Americans in his Jerusalem Post Op-Ed this Sunday titled 'A growing divergence between J'lem and Washington?'
Inbar is now worried about the Obama administration's policy directions, and not just their implications for Washington-Jerusalem relations, but also what they will mean for the "defense of the free world." Evidently the situation is sufficiently serious that Inbar wants us to call on a higher power, invoking us to pray that the Obama administration's "learning curve regarding international realities will be short."
Speaking not only for most Israelis but also for the Arabs, Inbar lets us know that "Obama's intention to 'engage' countries like Iran and Syria in order to start a 'new page' in 'bilateral relations' is seen as naive. "Arabs, as well, as Israel, want to see Iran and its proxies rolled back, not appeased, by Washington."
Inbar and many other Israel supporters are very worried about any linkage being suggested between Israeli flexibility on the Palestinian issue and the effort to prevent Iranian nuclearization. Alan Dershowitz criticized Rahm Emanuel's public remarks, stating there is such a linkage, Inbar finds fault with a similar statement by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. "It is hard to believe that the State Department does not understand that the moderate Arab states will cooperate to stop Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb regardless of the Palestinian issue." Ouch!
And using a soundbite we should be prepared to hear regularly from both Israel and her lobbyists, Inbar insists "the Iranian threat dwarfs any potential repercussions of an impasse in the Israeli-Palestinian track." In case the Obama Administration still doesn't get the point, Inbar reminds Washington that "preventing a nuclear Iran is a paramount American interest." Raising a global alarm, Inbar adds "If Washington's current prism on world affairs obfuscates its strategic judgement, the West is in trouble."
Whereas trying to engage Iran and Syria is naive, the White House attempt "to make kosher the transfer of funds to a Palestinian government that includes the radical Islamist Hamas" is "strategic folly." Hamas is merely an "Iranian proxy with a clear jihadist agenda." Moreover, it has strong ties to the Islamic opposition in Egypt, which wants "to replace the pro-Western Mubarak regime." Inbar again acts as the keeper of American interests as if the Obama administrations is struggling in this respect. Coinciding with the interests of its allies in the Middle East (and by the way "only marginally related to Israel"), US interests of course are to protect all of the so-called "moderate" dictators and authoritarian regimes in the region from their own people.
Inbar goes on to note that "leaders in the moderate states view Obama's early initiatives with great apprehension." What the citizens in the "moderate states" think of Obama is apparently irrelevant (actually polls indicate Arabs think very highly of Obama). But Israeli public opinion does matter, and Israelis are as skeptical of Obama as "moderate" Arab leaders. "According to a poll commissioned last month by the ADL and the BESA Center, only 37 percent of Israelis trust Obama to make the right decisions on the Arab-Israeli conflict, and 63% percent believe that his rapprochement with the Arab and Muslim world will come at Israel's expense." If Obama hopes to have a second term, he better work on those Israeli poll numbers.
American voters may still believe that Obama represents change we can believe in, but the "REASON" for the skepticism in Israel is clear:
US attempts to endear itself to the Muslim world have failed in the past, such as when the US sided with Muslims in Pakistan, Bosnia and Kosovo. Likewise, attempts to appease Muslim actors such as the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah, project American weakness and are unlikely to be reciprocated with conciliatory policies.
As for the two-state solution, forget it. Chances for progress are dismal. It should be as obvious to everyone as it is to Inbar that "the Palestinians refuse to accept the Jewish right to self-determination" (no matter what agreements they have signed previously). "Furthermore, the Palestinians have failed to establish a functioning centralized state, and the centrifugal tendencies will intensify with Hamas ruling Gaza." As if Israel had no responsibility for any of that.
"Similarly, negotiations with Syria are not likely to end in a peace treaty." Why? "Damascus is not ready to pay the price," which would involve "disconnecting from Iran and losing Israel as a convenient enemy with which to prop-up the Alawite regime." Ah, maintaining family dictatorships are not in America's interests when those regimes aren't sufficiently pro-Western.
Inbar has a final warning for those ignorant of Middle East realities:
In the Middle East, misguided American policies, particularly regarding Iran, may have disastrous consequences such as the fall of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey into Islamist hands. Under such a scenario, Israel would remain the only country where an American airplane could land safely in the Middle East; this is not a thought that Jerusalem relishes. Israel would much prefer that President Obama get up to speed on Mideast realities as quickly as possible.
For those Americans who would like to be able to land in the Middle East somewhere other than Ben-Gurion airport, they should be hoping President Obama heeds the advice of Prime Minister Netanyahu when he comes to Washington next week.
This is the mentality Obama will be facing. As Scott McConnell already reported from Washington, even the best informed people are uncertain what is going to happen going forward. There are mixed messages coming out of the Obama administration and the President has not yet shown his cards. It will be hard to continue keeping them close to his vest after Netanyahu's visit.
