John Mearsheimer has been right again and again about political trends vis-a-vis the lobby. His grim logic in the latest American Conservative:
–No American president has been able to buck the lobby– viz, the unending settlements, which every president opposed;
–The lobby will side with Netanyahu, who doesn't want a Palestinian state.
–"Obama has little chance of prevailing, mainly because
the lobby’s key institutions will side with Israel, and the American
president shows little sign of being willing to take on the lobby." Silence on Gaza, Chas Freeman.
–A two-state solution now is in the best interests of the US, Israel, and the lobby. The alternatives are: one state with ethnic cleansing, one state with apartheid, one state with democracy, which Israelis would resist, likely with violence.
The answer lies with the Jewish community here, the real power players:
Obama’s only hope—and it is a slim one—is that a substantial part of
the American Jewish community will come to understand Olmert’s warning
that Israel will become like white-ruled South Africa if there is no
two-state solution. More American Jews need to understand that Israel
is in serious peril and that the situation is likely to get worse, not
better. Obama would be acting as Israel’s friend if he put pressure on
both sides to reach a settlement. If there is no agreement, Israel
faces a grim future, and it will become very difficult to defend
Israel. In short, more Jewish-Americans need to recognize that it is in
their interest to champion the two-state solution.
If that does not happen, Obama will be unable to get tough with Israel.
There will be even more trouble ahead for Israel, the United States,
and especially the Palestinians.
This seems to me unquestionably true. (While I'm more in the democratic-one-state crowd, as Adam Horowitz says, the structure of the solution doesn't matter as much as the principles inherent–Palestinian self-determination–) This is why I have called on the Times to start showing greater journalistic leadership with its audience, which includes American Jews. Right now the only big Jews showing up on this are APN, Brit Tzedek, and Israel Policy Forum, whose ad in the Times disses Netanyahu by not even mentioning him by name, just mentions our president, Obama.
