Obama's game is to defeat the Israel lobby from within. He could not defeat the lobby from outside it; because Jews are simply too important in the American power structure. That is why he could not run against the lobby; he promised to try not to pander to it, and then he did pander. But now he is cracking it like a nut, and counting on Jews to do the cracking.
Obama's wedge issue is the settlements. David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel have (surely) told him that Most American Jews are sort of against the settlements, and if he plays it right, he can get a 65/35 Jewish popular break on the question and still get a second term. He will get all the young Jews against the settlements. And Obama is going to use Jewish power on the settlements issue, c.f., Helene Cooper's piece in the Times the other day talking about Obama's stratagem:
Mr. Obama’s administration, from Mrs. Clinton to Chief of
Staff Rahm Emanuel to Mr. [Dennis] Ross, is filled with politicians and
foreign policy experts who have high standing among the pro-Israel
lobby in the United States, but moving Mr. Ross from the State
Department to right next door at the White House could help to protect
Mr. Obama’s flank even further when it comes to Israel.
Obama's leverage on the Jews is the Muslim world and American realists post-Iraq. No, neither is really part of his Administration. He tried to include Chas Freeman and Freeman got ousted. But Obama is playing to these constituencies all the time, to put pressure on the Jewish community. The Cairo speech was intended to wow the Jewish world with Obama's connection to the Muslim world. Then Lebanon and Tehran followed, signals of Obama's power.
Obama needs outside political pressure to help crack the lobby; he needs non-Jews and disaffected Jews to care about the issue. He needs Max Blumenthal and Joseph Dana to dawn Americans what an ugly place the occupation is and what it has done to the Jews, he needs outsider/insider congressmen like Rush Holt, Keith Ellison, Brian Baird and Donna Edwards, who have gotten J Street's assistance, to hold teachins on the Hill about the Gaza onslaught. Most of all, he needs media exposure of the lobby. He needs "60 Minutes" and Brian Williams.
The media exposure will happen at last, for a simple reason: The Israel lobby is no longer congruent with the Jewish community. In the past to attack the Israel lobby meant to attack Jewish power. Jews became extremely defensive, they had seen that before, they said Never again. That is why Walt and Mearsheimer were smeared, because they had made the terrible mistake of not being Jewish. The Washington Post described them as Nazis, and whenever respected Jews in the media dared criticize elements of the lobby, they all hastened to add, Not that I believe what Walt and Mearsheimer said.
The big change politically, and it is J Street's achievement, and Walt and Mearsheimer's too, is that Some Jews are taking on Other Jews. This has made it kosher to criticize the lobby. It's just a matter of time before one of Obama's Jewish surrogates takes on the Israel lobby publicly (Obama won't do it himself; George Bush I made that mistake, when he had his fight over settlements in '91; and he believed that it helped cost him the next election, wisdom he passed on to his stupid and credulous son, who took it to heart).
The other day I had a frank conversation about these issues, for the first time in years, with a Jewish friend in the MSM. That is because we are on the same side now: we support Obama putting pressure on Netanyahu on settlements. My friend said grimly, Obama might not win. He was acknowledging the power of the Israel lobby, even stripped down to AIPAC's core and Malcolm Hoenlein and the older, conservative money. John Mearsheimer says the same thing. Well then how do we defeat the Israel lobby? I keep saying the most powerful political combination will take place when Michael Walzer, who wants to defeat the settler movement, and has a huge following in the Jewish community, hooks up with Mearsheimer, who wants to do the same thing, and has a following in the grass roots and civil servant class. Some day it will happen. Will it be in time to bring about peace? That's another question. But Obama is cracking heads together.
