The fact that the Obama administration first communicated to Jewish leaders its determination to block the progress of the U.N.’s Goldstone report on Gaza is evidence of a deal. The Obama administration has cut a deal with centrist-liberal Jewish groups along these terms. We will forget Gaza ever happened. We will never say a word about Gaza. We will always state that the U.S. alliance with Israel is indivisible. We will work with other nations on Iran (but we won’t allow an attack on Iran). You must help us with your people and the settlements. We believe that freezing the colonization process is the only way to get a two-state solution.
Obama, and Rahm Emanuel too, believe that they can gain enough of the Jewish leadership this way to bring American Jews along in support of Obama as he applies pressure. Because the intelligent Jewish leadership knows that Iran is not the main threat, Israel is in danger from the occupation, and this is the last chance for the two-state solution, to preserve the Jewish state. Notice that the Times is on board with the agenda; not a word about Goldstone; but the U.S. must use its power and pressure to bring about two states.
Through this commitment from the Jewish center-left, Obama can then pressure Netanyahu on the two-state solution. It’s a gamble because of where the center breaks. Notice that Chuck Schumer is against him on this, and Anthony Weiner too, and Steve Rothman of New Jersey hasn’t been helpful. It is amazing that Weiner and Schumer have openly sandbagged Obama as he presses forward with his Cairo initiative. But these men will ultimately fall into line if Obama can grow his political base among Jewish Democrats. It’s a gamble, and the board is changing. If Obama said a word about Gaza, he figures, he will lose the game in a second. (Because the people who read this blog have no power in those chambers, where the deer and the Israel lobby play. We only have power in the discourse.)
So: Will Obama come to the J Street conference next month? I say he will; and that his appearance there will be a giant boost to the progressive/centrist Zionist community and a slap in the face to AIPAC, and a sign to Rothman and Weiner and Schumer that the politics are changing and they better get on board, the new center.
This negotiation is all taking place out of sight, but it’s happening. It’s the deal. But will it work? Ah, that’s another question. (And yes, there we have power.)
