A week back Micha Kurz told me that American Jews are not aware of the real tension in Israel/Palestine, the looming war between secular Israel and the religious settler movement. John Mearsheimer has said as much, too. So has Michael Walzer. A friend, citing this piece in Haaretz, says, battalion against battalion–the Israeli army has been infiltrated by settler
rabbis, and fear of a mutiny is now dictating extraordinary precautions:
Soldiers in the ultra-Orthodox battalion of the Nahal infantry brigade claim that they were strip-searched on Monday upon entrance to a battalion ceremony.
The commanders searched the soldiers fearing they would protest settlement evacuations as soldiers from the Kfir Brigade did recently.
This is a serious sign of weakness. The settler movement will make bigtime political hay.
Barak is totally incompetent.
Don’t you just feel so much better about that rogue nuclear arsenal in their hands, huh?
Stories like this will soon be used by the Lobby to explain why the US cannot push Israel into vacating the settlements. Why if we push them too hard the country will dissolve into civil war. The old extortion game. Push too hard and Israel will commit suicide, invade Iran, go collectively insane, whatever.
Sooner or later (much, much later, maybe…), someone is going to call Israel’s bluff. Much to their impending regret.
Most likely not ultra-Orthodox (as in black-hat or Haredi) but settler religious (Hardal).
Akiva Eldar has a piece in today’s Haaretz – not translated as yet – on the demographic time bomb that is the Haredim.
He writes that 20 years ago they were 4% of Israel’s Jewish population, today they are 10%. By 2050, they will be 37%. The Haredi population doubles every 16 years. Haredi children receive very little education beyond rudimentary arithmetic skills.
Eldar’s conclusion is that the whole country will become like Jerusalem – unable to sustain itself without donations. The secular will leave. Unless the Haredim reform (no pun intended) themselves.
Settlers are occupying more mid- to senior officer positions in the army and an ever-growing number of settler soldiers fill the ranks of the combat brigades.
They are going to need a revolution in thinking to get past this.
They’re not going to get past it. They’re going to collapse because they’re afraid to confront either party, but especially the haredim. In Israel, whoever screams loudest wins.
This is a piece by Shahar (not Eldar), citing the statistics you mention:
link to haaretz.com
Is this the one you meant?
What this piece does not mention are the even more alarming demographic numbers that include haredi, religious nationalist (eg settler movement) and the Mizrahi orthodox. Altogether, these groups make up almost 1/3 of the population already and 45% of the elementary school enrollment. While all of these religious groups are not necessarily in lock step on many issues, they share a commitment to more consistent enforcement of halachic law (they vary however on the specifics) as well as a strong anti-arab, anti-palestinian sentiment (again, variations are noted, like the anti-zionist neturei karta).
If one adds the deeply right wing russians to the mix, the demographics portend an ever increasing shift to even more right wing governments and policies than we see now. The Russians may be anti-haredi now, but they share a strong dislike of palestinians with the haredi and will make alliances with them, which will include removing minority court protections and other civil liberties as well as assenting to greater role of the religious authorities.
All in all, the big losers are the secular zionists, ie, the natural labor and meretz supporters whose decline we saw in the past elections. These are the people who are also leaving the country in droves (and many more would have left already if they could).
The likely trends are not only far greater deference to the religious (ie, against the advise Shahar offers) but more fanatic settlers in the IDF and a sharp increase in internal religious strife, one that I predict will be escalating much faster than others expect because of the strange alliances being formed even between the politically and socially incompatible bed fellows.
When Jstreet claims that a majority of Israeli Jews support the two state solution, I think they are deceiving themselves. These demographics are working against any reasonable negotiated deal, the tipping point has likely been reached and it is only going to get worse.
Somehow I do not believe that all of those rich zionists in the US that has been bankrolling this operation are really aware of what they are creating.
The movement of moderate and secular Israelis getting the hell out of the place is balanced by the immigration of fanatical zionist and/or religious fanatics from the US, in consequence of the activity of the Nefesh b’nefesh organization.
Unfortunately, these usually retain their US citizenship, allowing them to vote for right-wing candidates in both nations.
Danaa – I noticed one sign of what you say. Recently, Avigdor Lieberman, cast by the Haredim as a bastard lovechild of Satan and Hitler during the elections, recently voted in the Knesset for higher allowances for yeshivas. There was certainly some quo for that quid, but it follows a general pattern in which the politicians who pander to secular interests during the elections will invariably stab them in the back once they are in the coalition.
Danaa – thanks for the correction. Brain-blip there.
Agreed. My experience with Russian Jews in the U.S. mirrors their rightwing trend in Israel.
The Zionist structure of the state has created structures that support the skyrocketing Haredi population. In the knockout game of whether the Jewish population can sustain a majority over the Arabs, the large Haredi family is an important statistic.
Groups like the New Israel Fund are trying to get liberal American Jews into the fray, but the Westernized Israeli Jews are losing the battle to the fundies and the racists.
Syvanen, I agree that way too many of the zionists’ supporters in the US are still in denial over what’s really happening in israel. They hold on to the dream of a “Jewish democratic state” for dear life, many tacitly – or overtly – supporting the J Streeters’ “two state” mantra with a degree of desperation that tells me that deep inside, somewhere in the sub-conscious, they already know that the dream is turning into a nightmare. I know that sometimes it’s tempting to overdo the psychological analogies when it comes to collectives. But in this case, IMO, it’s not possible to come to grips with the political without acknowledging the psychological. There is a profound need on the part of the establishment Jewish community in the US (and elsewhere in the diaspora) – as individuals and as collective congregations – to continue to believe in an Israel they largely invented, one with all the American values they hold so dear. The vision of Israel that American jews had has always worked so hard to ignore the reality of a traumatized society, seemingly healthy and vibrant on the outside, but hiding ugly scars underneath, left over from the state’s founding. I think of it as a kind of an inverted sabra with the scars now reopened and fast becoming a bleeding open wound, a festering ulcer that’s infecting what healthy tissue there ever was (forget psychology. I’m so into biology now….).
Witty is a great proof of this diagnosis. You can see why I can’t bring myself to be as exasperated with his desperate, increasingly obscure argumentation as others here are. Since I know the prognosis, I see little reason to rejoice in knowing the condition he fears is, in fact, terminal. And the ultimate irony is that the play has been written by Jews themselves long ago. This is merely another replay in a modern context, but with much more dangerous weapons. The palestinians – like the rest of the world – are all reduced to just spectators in this melodrama, which hopefully will not turn into real tragedy for all.
I think there’s cause for alarm. That’s all I really know for sure.
According to Avirama Golan link to haaretz.com
this movement represents a convergence of the two strains of extremism.
This is a good article – detailing another aspect of the religious take over structures and institutions that were once considered immune (the IDF, especially). I think the growing influence and promotion of the hesder yeshivah’s will end up being an “own goal” for Israel’s vaunted armed forces. Instead of a melting pot, the IDF, like the rest of the society may become a boiling pot of incompatible and hostile world views.
The article mentions the way the green line is being “erased”. That I think is true. As you mentioned above a lot of the religious nationalist movement is spear-headed and staffed by american-made zealots. If you were to ask Israelis, many would say that the real reason to hang unto much of the west bank is to have a place the ‘crazies’ can go to – away from Israel proper and it’s happy hi tech bubble by the sea. Of course, many smarter israelis realize all too well that this is a boomerang that will ultimately puncture the bubble. Strangely enough, most of these ‘smarter’ israelis are fatalists – what will be will be. The ones who aren’t get out or try to find an escape hatch.
I find such discussions of demographics (especially the expression “demographic time bomb”) distasteful, to say the least – whether we are talking about Palestinians, Haredi or National-Religious Jews (often confused but by no means the same), or foreign workers. The problems in Israel stem from systemic discrimination, lack of democratic safeguards, unequal distribution of wealth, militarisation and violent occupation. Funding for religious institutions and “generous” family allowances are all part of the game. Haredi poverty is a result, first and foremost, of the military draft and the dirty deals worked out between the government and the Haredi leadership to keep the rank and file out of the army but dependent on state handouts (and the rabbis who secure them). People have babies. In a sick society “certain” babies may perceived as a threat (to whom? by whom?) but, ultimately, the problem is with the society, not with the birthrate of any particular group.
It seems that Israel, like other piddling little Levantine countries, may dissolve into a mess of squabbling religionists, and/or secularists, left behind after most sensible (and wealthy) Israelis have escaped to the US.
When I first lived in Lebanon (1975), 17 different religions/sects were recognised. We had public holidays for every single one.
That very soon dissolved into a Christian/Sunni/Shia/Druze 18 year civil war
Substitute ‘Lebanese’ for Israelis in the first para, and you’ll see quite clearly what will happen.
The ‘only democracy in the Middle East’ is nothing of the sort. It is only a piddling little Levantine country somehow holding the greatest military power on earth by the goolies.
Which is exactly why it is in the best interest of said GMP to do its utmost to prevent said PLLC from deteriorating into a squabbling mess. Placing all of its “goolies” in the Zionist basket just doesn’t seem to be the best way of going about it. If I understand the Lebanese mess correctly (Israeli and Syrian meddling notwithstanding), it stems primarily from a cockamamie system of religious power-sharing, which has actually encouraged factionalism and given each group a fief from which to plot against all the others. It would thus seem logical, in dealing with another PLLC, to try to reduce factionalism by giving everyone the same rights and taking active steps to discourage the formation of power bases along factional lines. Not an easy task on any level, but it’s our goolies we’re talking about here!
Pingback: News Briefs Nov. 22-28/2009 | www.new-right.org