Washington Stakeout got Russ Feingold to admit that Israel has nukes, though the senator tried to avoid the question. How helpful is this kind of hypocrisy? Andrew Sullivan is worried about Israeli nuclear policy [emphasis mine]:
One reason I have been focusing on Israel lately is because I can see this conflict coming and do not believe it can be contained or managed without a more open and honest public dialogue than the cramped and emotional one that occurs in Washington. The truth is: Israel and the US have very different interests with respect to Iran, and if Israel launches a war on Iran, against US wishes, then the alliance will never be the same.
Sullivan is afraid that Israel feels free to attack Iran, and that all hell will break loose; and meantime Washington has been cramped and emotional. At J Street two months back, California Congressman Bob Filner expressed the same apprehension: he said congressmen sell their votes on Middle East policy to the Israel lobby because their constituents don’t care one way or the other– but nuclear war is at stake.
The same powerlessness can be seen in a Washington Post report on an Iran-diplomacy "game" at Harvard, in which stand-ins for all the different countries role-played for several hours. Playing Iran was Gary Sick, an American. But "playing" Israel in the game was Dore Gold, who often serves as a proxy for Israel anyway, and who refused to say that Israel would not attack Iran without U.S. permission. Some game. Reporter David Ignatius echoes the general fear:
"The most difficult problem we have is how to restrain Israel," said [former State Department official Nicholas] Burns. "My own view is that we need to play for a long-term solution, avoid a third war in the Greater Middle East and wear down the Iranians over time."
Gold said the game clarified for him a worrying difference of opinion between U.S. and Israeli leaders: "The U.S. is moving away from preventing a nuclear Iran to containing a nuclear Iran — with deterrence based on the Cold War experience. That became clear in the simulation. Israel, in contrast, still believes a nuclear Iran must be prevented."
The game showed that diplomacy will become much harder next year. As Burns explains: "The U.S. probably will get no help from Russia and China, Iran will be divided and immobile, Europe will be weak, and the U.S. may have to restrain Israel."
