Last night I went to a jammed event at Columbia on the human-rights crisis in Gaza and later over bad hummus heard the following theory from a friend:
In ’92 George H.W. Bush ran against the Israel lobby and lost the presidency. He was angered by the settlements-freeze business on the Hill in ’91 and James Baker had of course said Fuck the Jews. [Weiss: And bear in mind, Bush himself has apparently blamed his Middle East policy for the loss.] Bill Clinton ran with the support of the lobby and even of many neocons [so says Jacob Heilbrunn in his neocons book], and won. Political life and death. When George W. Bush ran in 2000, he of course reversed his father’s course [Can you imagine the scene in Kennebunkport where the father advises his son not to make his mistake? Painted duck decoys, gin and tonics, well for dad anyway–Wagner on the Bose?] and won. Cheney and his wife came out of AEI. So did Bush’s braintrust. The lobby provided Sheldon Adelson, third richest man in the solar system, and almost all the money behind Freedom’s Watch. And Bush became the greatest friend to Israel ever…
When Obama got going, the Israel lobby thought he was a green no-account. They all went to Hillary, the big Jews did, and the neocons went to Rudy and McCain. Barack Hussein Obama was always low on the Haaretz Who-loves-Israel ratings. Which is to say, Obama rose without the active support of the lobby. Much as Ned Lamont did in Connecticut. Now the lobby is freaking out and trying to claim him after all. Marty Peretz is writing articles saying he is good for the Jews, because Marty hates to feel left out of the Democratic Party party, and Obama himself is making a good show of it. But Marty is a romantic and an enthusiast not a shrewdy, while Malcolm Hoenlein, a very shrewd man, knows better, and sees the writing on the wall. These guys really don’t know whether to shit or shine their shoes right now. It’s too late to embrace Obama and really make a difference (he’s already won, per the theory). And if they follow Joe to McCain, they could get swamped in the fall…
Progressives like my friend and Sue Dravis aren’t worried about Obama’s lip service re Israel. They know in their hearts that a man with a Muslim parent who grew up in, among other places, the largest Muslim country on the planet, Indonesia, cares about Palestinian human rights. And what’s most important– he will owe the lobby nothing… He is reversing the George H.W. Bush political lesson…
