A former instructor at the Army Intelligence School, Howard Lurie writes in my old paper, the Philadelphia Daily News, about the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran before November 4, and offers some interesting game theory:
Given his views on the Iraq war, it's highly unlikely that Israel could
count upon U.S. assistance if Barack Obama wins the election and is in
office at the time of an attack….
Even if Obama wins, George Bush will still be president until Jan. 20.
However, if Obama wins, Israel and Bush run the risk of serious public
disapproval if an attack occurs before Obama moves into the Oval
Office. A disapproving Obama would be in a position to make Israel pay
a very heavy price for its action….
Acting before the voting presents Israel with its best opportunity.
President Bush is probably inclined to provide U.S. assistance….
Before the election, neither Obama nor McCain is likely to condemn
Israel, at least too harshly, for fear of alienating the Jewish vote,
which could be crucial in several states….
Regardless of his views on Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear
facilities, neither candidate is likely to be willing, before the
election, to express strong opposition to U.S. efforts to defend Israel
against Iranian retaliation.
INDEED, IT'S inevitable, if Israel is attacked before the election,
that the candidates will have to respond about defending Israel against
Iranian retaliation.
It would be difficult for the candidates to equivocate on this. It is
also appears unlikely that either would refuse to support coming to
Israel's defense.
Thus, whatever effect an Israeli attack will have on the election, it
seems clear to me that the approaching election itself will have a
major effect on Israel's decision to attack.
Two comments. I don't think it's gonna happen. I don't think Bush wants it. I'm an optimist. Also: it would be nice if writers would eliminate the hypocrisy of speaking of Jewish voters. It's Jewish power in the Establishment, cultural/media/political/financial these guys worry about. "Voters" is a quaint prevarication.
