By killing top Iranian military commander, Qasem Soleimani, American and Israeli leaders demonstrated the idiom ‘out of the frying pan into the fire.’
US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are both politically and legally embattled – the former has just been impeached and the latter is dogged by an Attorney General indictment and investigation into major corruption cases.
Despairing, out of options and united by a common cause, both leaders were on the lookout for a major disruption – that would situate them in a positive light within their countries’ respective media – and they found it.
The assassination of the Iranian major general in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commander of its Quds Force, Soleimani, on January 3, along with several Iranian military leaders by a US drone was a testament to the degree of that US and Israeli desperation.
Over the last few months, the possibility of a war against Iran has once more gained momentum, topping the agenda of Israel’s foreign policy makers. Politically beleaguered Netanyahu has repeatedly and tirelessly asked his friends in Washington to increase pressure on Tehran.
“Iran is increasing its aggression as we speak,” Netanyahu claimed on December 4, during a meeting with US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo. “We are actively engaging in countering that aggression.”
It is no secret that Israel is itching for a war against Iran. Yet all of Tel Aviv’s efforts have failed to bring about US-led war similar to the Iraq invasion in 2003. The most that Netanyahu could achieve in terms of US support in that regard was a decision by the Trump administration to renege on the US commitment to the international community by withdrawing from the Iran Nuclear Treaty in May 2018.
That coveted Israeli war seemed assured when Iran, after various provocations and the slapping by Washington of yet more sanctions, shot down a US unmanned aerial vehicle that, as Iran maintained, violated the country’s airspace, on June 20, 2019.
Even then, the US response fell short of achieving the all-out war that Netanyahu has been so frantically seeking.
But much has happened since then, including a repeat of Netanyahu’s failure to win a decisive election, thus securing another term in office, compounding the Israeli Prime Minister’s fully justified fear that he could eventually find himself behind bars for operating a massive racket of bribes and misuse of power.
Trump, too, has his own political woes, thus his own reasons to act erratically and irresponsibly. His official impeachment by the US House of Representatives on December 18 was the last of such bad news. He too needed to up the political ante.
If there is one thing that many Democratic and Republican lawmakers have in common is their desire for more Middle East military interventions and to maintain a stronger military presence in the oil and gas-rich region. This was reflected in the near-celebratory tone that US officials, generals, and media commentators have used following the assassination of the Iranian commander in Baghdad.
Israeli officials too were visibly excited. Immediately following the killing of General Soleimani, Israeli leaders and officials issued statements and tweets in support of the US action.
For his part, Netanyahu declared that “Israel has the right to defend itself. The US has the same right exactly.” “Soleimani,” he added, “is responsible for the deaths of innocent US citizens and many others. He was planning further attacks.”
The last statement in particular, “he was planning further attacks,” points to the obvious joint intelligence and information sharing between Washington and Tel Aviv.
Benny Gantz, mistakenly celebrated for being a “centrist”, was no less militant in his views. When it comes to matters of national security, “there is no coalition and opposition,” he stated.
“The killing of Soleimani is a message to all the head of global terror: on your own heads be it,” the Israeli general, responsible for the death of thousands of innocent Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere, also added.
Iran will certainly respond, not only against American targets but Israeli targets as well, for Tehran is convinced that Israel has played a major role in the operation. The pressing questions are more about the nature and the timing of the Iranian response: How far will Iran go to send even a stronger message back to Washington and Tel Aviv? and could Teheran communicate a decisive message without granting Netanyahu his wish of an all-out war between Iran and the United States?
Recent events in Iraq – the mass protests and attempt by unarmed protesters to storm the US embassy in Baghdad on December 31 – were, to some extent, a game changer. Initially, they were understood as an angry response to US airstrikes on an Iranian-backed militia group on Sunday, but the protests had unintended consequences as well, particularly dangerous from a US military and strategic perspective. For the first time since the phony US ‘withdrawal’ from Iraq under the previous administration of Barack Obama in 2012, a new collective understanding began maturing among ordinary Iraqis and their representatives that the US must leave the country for good.
Acting quickly, the US, with palpable Israeli giddiness, assassinated Soleimani to send a clear message to Iraq and Iran that demanding or expecting an American withdrawal is a red line that cannot be crossed – and to the whole Middle East that the evident US retreat from the region will not be duplicated in Iraq.
Soleimani’s assassination was followed by yet more US airstrikes on Iran’s allies in Iraq, as to also emphasize the level of US seriousness and willingness to seek violent confrontation as a matter of course.
While Iran is now weighing in its responses, it must also be aware of the geostrategic consequences of its decisions. An Iranian move against US-Israeli interests would have to be convincing from the point of view of Iran and its allies, yet, again, without engaging in an all-out war.
Either way, Iran’s next move will define the Iranian-US-Israeli relations in the region for years to come and will further intensify the ongoing regional and international “Great Game”, on full display throughout the Middle East.
Soleimani’s assassination could also be understood as a clear message to both Russia and China as well, that the US is prepared to set the whole region on fire, if necessary, in order to maintain its strategic presence and to serve its economic interests – which mostly lie in Iraqi and Arab oil and gas.
This comes at the heel of a joint Russian, Chinese and Iranian naval drill in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman, starting on December 27. The news of the military exercises must have been particularly alarming to the Pentagon, as Iran, which was meant to be isolated and browbeaten, is increasingly becoming a regional access point to the emergent and resurfacing Chinese and Russian military powers respectively.
Soleimani was an Iranian commander, but his massive network and military alliances in the region and beyond made his assassination a powerful message sent by Washington and Tel Aviv that they are ready and unafraid to up their game.
The ball is now in the court of Iran and its allies.
Judging by past experiences, it is likely that Washington will regret assassinating the Iranian general for many years to come.
Must listen!!!
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/the-sunday-edition-for-january-5-2020-1.5411997/a-dangerous-new-phase-in-the-u-s-iran-conflict-but-all-out-war-unlikely-security-expert-1.5414007
A 36 minute detailed analysis of recent events involving the U.S. and Iran and their possible consequences by eminent Professor, Paul Rogers,* at Bradford University in Britain. He is interviewed by Michael Enright of Canada’s CBC Radio “The Sunday Edition,” Jan. 5, 2020.
“A dangerous new phase in the U.S.-Iran conflict but ‘all-out war’ unlikely: security expert”
“It has all sounded like the beating of the drums of war: the assassination of a powerful military general, the promises of harsh vengeance, more troops massing while foreign civilians flee.
“The US killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani – the mastermind behind Iran’s many operations throughout the Middle East – has the whole world on edge.”
“In the midst of such anxiety about where the world might be headed next, The Sunday Edition’s Michael Enright spoke to Paul Rogers, to reflect on the meanings and implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict.
* “Paul Rogers is an internationally renowned expert on matters of conflict and security. He’s an Emeritus Professor of Peace Studies at Bradford University in Britain and the Global Security Consultant with the Oxford Research Group. His most recent book is called Irregular War: ISIS and the New Threat from the Margins.”
“‘This is unparalleled,’ Rogers said about the repercussions of Soleimani’s assassination.”
I wonder what Trump is so worried about!!
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/trump-administration-blocks-iranian-foreign-minister_n_5e13aa58e4b0843d36174de4?ri18n=true
EXCERPT:
“Trump Admin Bars Top Iranian Diplomat From Entering U.S.: Report”
Huffington Post, Jan. 6, 2020
“Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had requested a visa to come to address the United Nations Security Council.”
If there were any justice and if Americans were possessed of any sense (sense of morality, History or common) this would be Trump’s Waterloo.
Sadly, due to American’s appalling ignorance, few will realize that the United States government has just assassinated a diplomatic envoy who was on an official mission – that had been requested by the United States government itself.
America had requested negotiations to ease tensions between Tehran and Riyadh and that was the purpose of Soleimani’s trip. In the entire History of diplomatic relations this is probably unprecedented and will reverberate down through the coming years. America has placed itself outside the realm of civilized Nations and it will be a long road back. All credibility in the entire Middle East is now extinguished as it is a sad fact that the average Arab citizen (possibly through greater proximity to events) has a far greater knowledge of events on the ground.
I’m not much given to making predictions but I’ll make one here so if it does indeed happen I can say I told you so.
Iran’s retaliation will be aimed at Riyadh and could well topple the Saudi Royal family, leveraging off the 25% of citizens there who are Shiite and the disaffected Sunnis. Could take a while but the Persians play a long game.
As for Trump’s political future – who knows or cares? America has a long tradition of electing corrupt and ignorant presidents.
Hearing Iran’s fury and threats of retaliation led me to speculate that Trump would make a threat for a tactical nuclear strike. Instead, he threatened 52 strikes which I have little doubt he’d follow through on if frontally challenged. This based upon my understanding of his psychological make-up.
Trump’s threat to attack cultural sites and denial of access to the Security Council are paths through which Security Council resolutions could be generated. In my view, these could be more powerful and effective in the long run than violent revenge. Trump’s party would perhaps come to their senses with action from Europe. My grandmother pointed out the futility of rolling in the mud with a pig.