The Trump administration has no plan for Gaza other than supporting Israel’s perpetual war

On Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump released a horrifying, AI-generated video showing his “vision” of Gaza, complete with every imaginable anti-Arab stereotype, an unabashed appeal to white supremacy and extreme oligarchy, and an image of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lounging in nothing but swimming trunks that will live a sickeningly long life in my head. 

The next day, Netanyahu brazenly declared that contrary to the agreement governing the ceasefire in Gaza, Israel is refusing to move its troops out of the Philadelphi Corridor, the narrow strip of land along Gaza’s southern border with Egypt.

Taken together, these two actions illustrate the approach the United States and Israel are taking to Gaza. 

Neither power is seriously grappling in any way with the realities on the ground. Trump is rolling around in a fantasy about the “Riviera on the Mediterranean” that has no chance of materializing. Meanwhile, he’s ignoring everything that is happening in Gaza and the West Bank on a daily basis. 

Trump has given tacit approval to Israeli actions since the ceasefire came into effect on January 19. More than 90 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza by Israeli attacks. Israel has also violated the ceasefire by obstructing the delivery of heavy machinery to start clearing away rubble; preventing the delivery of mobile homes and tents to temporarily shelter the people of Gaza, especially in the almost totally destroyed north; delaying the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners; and now by refusing to leave the Philadelphi Corridor. 

All of this has taken place without comment from Washington. Trump has gotten what he most wanted in the short term, a ceasefire and more hostages freed. He may well see all the remaining Israeli hostages returned home, and that will be his victory.

Will there be a Phase II?

The Netanyahu government has made it clear that they intend to restart the massacres in Gaza after the Israeli captives return home. This means little to Trump, as he will have gotten the “win” he wanted, the deal that eluded his predecessor for over a year. Beyond that, his notion of turning Gaza into a playground for the idle rich is a long-term idea, not something he can realize in just a few months or even years. It’s just a daydream.

But Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff has made it clear that he hopes to get to the second phase of the ceasefire. That phase is meant to end with a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the return of all remaining Israeli hostages for some number of Palestinian prisoners—far from all of them—being held just as illegally by Israel. Given that talks on Phase II have not really started, Witkoff has pushed for extending Phase I. In either case, the goal is to extend the ceasefire until the hostages can be freed. There remains no plan for the people of Gaza, and neither the U.S. nor Israel is dissatisfied with that. 

That’s why Netanyahu has stated Israel will not withdraw from Philadelphi. It’s also why Netanyahu dispatched his negotiating team to Egypt on Thursday. He is hoping, as is Witkoff, that they can extend Phase I beyond the six-week period in the agreement. That period would end on Saturday. As Netanyahu so often does, he is working to give himself as much time as possible.

The hostage release agreed upon for Phase I, however, is complete. This is exactly why Israel dragged its feet, refusing to negotiate Phase II, a refusal they maintain. They are hoping that extending Phase I will allow them to bring home more hostages, rendering Phase II moot before they have withdrawn their forces. 

Since the United States is clearly backing this strategy, it could very well succeed.  

This approach suits Netanyahu. He knows that there is no solution at hand for Gaza. Regardless of what Trump says, there is no place for the people of Gaza to go, and most would only leave Gaza at the point of a gun, if even then.

Thus, he delays. His faux outrage that led to the delay in releasing the Palestinian prisoners as agreed was just another stalling tactic. While many Israelis were upset at Hamas’ theatrics around returning the bodies of Israeli civilians, including young children of the Bibas family, Netanyahu seized on it as an opportunity, as only someone as coldly cynical and selfish as he can. 

It was so transparent that even the Bibas family had to take time out of their grieving to call on Netanyahu to stop using their dead loved ones’ memories in public. 

All of this to serve Netanyahu’s aim of prolonging the atmosphere of tension, outrage, pain, and anger, and thus to serve his personal political interests. 

The lack of a possible resolution—the idea of recognizing the basic rights of Palestinians being completely unfathomable to Netanyahu, Trump, or nearly anyone in public office in the U.S, Israel, Europe, or even most of the Arab world—is a positive thing in Netanyahu’s eyes. 

This goes far beyond his personal interest in avoiding prosecution for his corruption or accountability for the disastrous failures of October 7 that are slowly being presented to the Israeli public. This is about Netanyahu’s utter failure to achieve any of his stated war goals.

Those goals, as Netanyahu has repeatedly said, were to free the hostages; to destroy Hamas, and to “make sure Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.”

But Netanyahu was unable to free any but a few hostages. Except for a handful who are outnumbered by those killed by Israeli attacks on Gaza, the hostages were freed by ceasefires negotiated by Egypt, Qatar, and the United States. Netanyahu’s insistence that they must be freed by Israeli military actions failed completely. 

Hamas has suffered some major setbacks, no doubt. But after almost 17 months of Israeli attacks, Hamas is believed to have about the same number of fighters as it did at the beginning of Israel’s onslaught. They remain capable of launching attacks on Israeli forces in Gaza. And they, and thus Gaza, will continue to resist Israel. They’re not going to be able to threaten Israel with another massive attack for some time to come, and Israel is unlikely to let its guard down as it did before the October 7 attack, but to the extent that Gaza was a “threat” before, it’s going to be that again in the not too distant future.

If there was real embarrassment, humiliation, and outrage in Netanyahu’s despicable use of dead Israeli children for his own ends, it wasn’t about Hamas’ theatrics. No, it was embarrassment at the fact that, for all of Israel’s killing, all of its leveling of Gaza, all of its torture of innocent people there, Hamas is still standing and still the leading Palestinian political and military force in Gaza, such as it is. 

There is simply no way Netanyahu is going to stop pounding Gaza while those conditions hold. 

But that doesn’t necessarily bother him. He is not as short-sighted or unintelligent as some might think he is. His appeal in Israel is based on outside threats. Attacks on Gaza and the escalating war on the civilian population of the West Bank sustain the atmosphere of threat for Israelis even when there have been few attacks by organized Palestinian groups emanating from the West Bank. 

The reestablishment of permanent occupation in Southern Lebanon and the invasion and expanded occupation of Syria both contribute to the same goal: perpetual war.

What are the available alternatives?

Hamas has voiced objections to the frequent Israeli ceasefire violations but has remained steadfast in its commitment to the agreement. They really have no other choice.

Hamas has agreed to give up ruling in Gaza, though they are not willing to agree to lay down their arms, stay completely uninvolved in the political process, or, it goes without saying, simply leave Gaza altogether. That’s exactly why the idea of their being forced out of Gaza has come up—once Hamas concedes something, Israel and the U.S. move the goalposts. This is how they’ve dealt with the Palestinians for the past 77 years. 

Hamas’ leadership are not fools. They know that Israel is just waiting to restart the mass slaughter in Gaza. They are trying to prolong the break in the worst of the horror for as long as possible while also trying desperately to stall for time in the hope that pressure will mount on Arab states to take some kind of substantive action to ensure that the massive onslaught can be ended. 

It’s a slim reed to pin Palestinian hopes on, but it’s all they have. The upcoming Arab summit in Cairo is looking less and less likely to be capable of producing a counter-proposal that would have any legs. Egypt is leading the process, and its plan would have Cairo in an overall management role, spearheading the reconstruction of Gaza while a technocratic and unaffiliated commission of Palestinians from Gaza would administer the territory through reconstruction and, presumably, until a government can be agreed upon and elected. 

That plan is already unpopular among Palestinian factions, who would be excluded from any official political or security role in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority has its own counter-proposal, but many are skeptical given the PA’s history of mismanagement and its use of its power to block rival factions. 

Israel has also made it clear it will not accept any role for the PA in Gaza. It is also unclear if they will accept any Arab proposal that doesn’t include significant expulsion of Palestinians from the territory, especially one that might lead to any sort of autonomy, much less independence. Conversely, Egypt is unlikely to commit to a process that has no endgame as it doesn’t want to be responsible again for Gaza as it was from 1949 to 1967. 

All of this makes it unlikely that anything that emerges from Cairo will be a viable plan unless Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Arab states are willing to press hard on Donald Trump. Access to their funds is more important to Trump than anything else, and he is unlikely to permit Netanyahu or even the fanatics on his own staff to get in the way. 

Netanyahu envisions perpetual war. He is pursuing a future where Israel has whittled down the offensive capabilities of its adversaries but has done so using methods that are guaranteed to inspire the mass proliferation of guerilla groups, in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. None of them will have the power to seriously harm Israel, but they will be able to harm Israelis, and thus maintain a state of insecurity that feeds Israeli militarism in general and the Israeli far right in particular.

The Trump White House has no substantive policy for Gaza or for Palestine. Israel is filling that vacuum with perpetual war. For the sake of their own economic interests and if they wish to avoid a chaotic future, Arab states, led by Saudi Arabia, have to come up with both a viable plan for Gaza’s future—one which is supported and endorsed by a large portion of the Palestinian people, and developed with their full participation—and a plan to convince Trump to put his weight behind it. 

If that seems unlikely, it is. But it may be the only viable path forward that offers some hope for the Palestinian people.