Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s top military chief, threatening a return to war with Lebanon

Israel assassinated Hezbollah’s highest-ranking military commander on Sunday, marking the most significant escalation between Israel and the Lebanese resistance group since the ceasefire between both sides first took effect a year ago.

Following an airstrike on a residential apartment in the Haret Hreik neighborhood in Beirut’s southern Dahiya district, the Israeli army announced that it had killed Hassan Ali Tabtabai, describing him as “Hezbollah’s chief of staff.” Hezbollah later confirmed that Tabtabai had been killed and that he was one of its senior military commanders.

Following the signing of the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in November of last year, Israel has engaged in a series of escalating airstrikes against what it claims are Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, which have also claimed the lives of Lebanese civilians and members of the Lebanese army and security forces.

The most recent escalation comes amid a fast-approaching “deadline” that the U.S. has set for the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. Due to pressures from the U.S., coupled with continuous demands by Lebanese parties not to provoke a new confrontation with Israel, Hezbollah has not responded to any of Israel’s numerous violations.

Before the November 2024 ceasefire, Israel had killed over 4,000 Lebanese citizens amid cross-border exchanges of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah. The Lebanese group had launched what it called a “support front” meant to dissuade Israel from continuing its genocidal war on Gaza. Israel then launched a wave of massive strikes on Lebanese cities in September 2024, which was preceded by the remote detonation of hundreds of pagers in Lebanon.

But whereas that round of escalation led to the November ceasefire, the current hostilities a year later might yield different results. Deputy chief of Hezbollah’s political council, Mahmoud Qamati, told the media in front of the targeted apartment in Beirut on Sunday that “all possibilities are on the table” in answering a question regarding whether the group would respond to the Israeli strike. 

The Israeli army also announced that it was making preparations for a wider confrontation with Hezbollah, including the strengthening of air defenses near the border with southern Lebanon.

The battle over Hezbollah’s disarmament

The assassination of Tabtabai comes after weeks of tensions concerning Hezbollah’s alleged attempt to rebuild, of which Israel has accused the group. Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, stated earlier in November that the party had adhered to the ceasefire and withdrawn its forces from the south of the Litani River, emphasizing that the question of disarmament remained an internal Lebanese issue that should not be dictated by outside powers. Qassem warned that even if Hezbollah has not responded to Israel’s provocations in the interest of maintaining the ceasefire, “everything has a limit.”

In the wake of Tabtabai’s assassination, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that “Israel will not allow Hezbollah to rebuild its capabilities.” 

Israel has been insisting on the disarmament of Hezbollah, which it considers a part of Lebanon’s obligations under the ceasefire agreement. Although the Lebanese army has taken control of most positions held by Hezbollah in the south of the country, Israel has been demanding, through U.S. mediators, that the Lebanese army raid southern Lebanese villages, homes, and private property. 

Meanwhile, Israel maintains five military positions in south Lebanon, from which Lebanon officially demands Israel to withdraw as part of the deal.

In June, U.S. envoy Tom Barrack proposed a “route-map” to defuse the situation and avoid the implosion of the fragile ceasefire, based on a so-called “step-for-step” strategy in which Israel would withdraw from one of the five positions in occupies in southern Lebanon in exchange for every phase in Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah rejected the proposal, maintaining the position that disarmament was a purely internal Lebanese matter which could only be discussed within the framework of a larger national defense strategy.

The build-up of tensions now threaten to collapse the ceasefire and see a return of fighting on the Lebanese front, especially in light of the ceasefire in Gaza and the release of all Israeli captives and rising demands in Israel for the formation of an official investigation committee into the security failure of October 7, opposed by Netanyahu. A new round of fighting with Lebanon could also open the way for a new confrontation with Iran.

In September 2024, Israel killed Hezbollah’s long-standing Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, alongside most of Hezbollah’s top military leaders. Israel went on to assassinate Nasrallah’s presumed successor, Hashem Safiyyudin. During this period, Hezbollah fired hundreds of missiles into Israel, targeting towns, military bases, air defense batteries, and radars, even striking as deep as Haifa and Tel Aviv. Despite the ceasefire between both sides, most analysts have concluded that the return of the war on the Lebanese front is just a matter of time.