A former instructor at the Army Intelligence School, Howard Lurie writes in my old paper, the Philadelphia Daily News, about the likelihood of an Israeli attack on Iran before November 4, and offers some interesting game theory:
Given his views on the Iraq war, it's highly unlikely that Israel could
count upon U.S. assistance if Barack Obama wins the election and is in
office at the time of an attack….
Even if Obama wins, George Bush will still be president until Jan. 20.
However, if Obama wins, Israel and Bush run the risk of serious public
disapproval if an attack occurs before Obama moves into the Oval
Office. A disapproving Obama would be in a position to make Israel pay
a very heavy price for its action….
Acting before the voting presents Israel with its best opportunity.
President Bush is probably inclined to provide U.S. assistance….
Before the election, neither Obama nor McCain is likely to condemn
Israel, at least too harshly, for fear of alienating the Jewish vote,
which could be crucial in several states….
Regardless of his views on Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear
facilities, neither candidate is likely to be willing, before the
election, to express strong opposition to U.S. efforts to defend Israel
against Iranian retaliation.
INDEED, IT'S inevitable, if Israel is attacked before the election,
that the candidates will have to respond about defending Israel against
Iranian retaliation.
It would be difficult for the candidates to equivocate on this. It is
also appears unlikely that either would refuse to support coming to
Israel's defense.
Thus, whatever effect an Israeli attack will have on the election, it
seems clear to me that the approaching election itself will have a
major effect on Israel's decision to attack.
Two comments. I don't think it's gonna happen. I don't think Bush wants it. I'm an optimist. Also: it would be nice if writers would eliminate the hypocrisy of speaking of Jewish voters. It's Jewish power in the Establishment, cultural/media/political/financial these guys worry about. "Voters" is a quaint prevarication.
Israel would be insane to attack Iran, a country that can and will fight back. I think it's all propaganda.
"Iran's Air Force is set to test the country's state-of-the-art military equipment and flight tactics in a large-scale aerial maneuver.
Iran's show of armed muscle is aimed at demonstrating the country's military offensive capabilities in the wake of escalating war threats against the Islamic Republic.
The upcoming military exercise is scheduled to be launched in Iran's northwestern city of Tabriz on Thursday and will resume in different Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Hamedan, and Dezfoul.
The Iranian Armed Forces have been holding military exercises on a regular basis after Israel conducted an air maneuver over the Eastern Mediterranean and Greece in early June, which according to Pentagon officials, appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Over 100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s took part in the exercise, which spanned some 900 miles, roughly the distance between their airfields and a nuclear enrichment facility in the central Iranian city of Natanz.
Iran responded in early July by holding an extensive military drill, during which the armed forces test-fired upgraded Iranian-made Shahab-3 missile equipped with a one-ton conventional warhead and capable of hitting targets within a 2,000-kilometer range.
Earlier in September, scores of Iran's fighter jets, surveillance planes, interceptor aircraft and radar drones took part in a joint three-day military exercise.
The maneuvers also involved testing a surveillance network equipped with state-of-the-art systems for identifying enemy aircraft.
After the drill the IRGC Air Force Commander, Brigadier General Hossein Salami warned that Iran's air space would be 'hazardous' and 'high-risk' for aggressor aircraft.
In further preparation for a possible Israeli attack, Iran's Air Force chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, announced in mid-August that the country has revamped its fighter jet fleet to fly distances of 3,000 kilometers without refueling.
The upgrade would allow Iranian aircraft to fly to Israel and back without needing to refuel.
Tel Aviv has threatened to launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear installations under the pretext that Tehran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has plans to develop nuclear weaponry.
This is while, in its latest report on Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that it could not find any 'components of a nuclear weapon' or 'related nuclear physics studies' in the country."
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=72249§ionid=351020101
Israel would be insane to attack Iran, a country that can and will fight back. I think it's all propaganda.
"Iran's Air Force is set to test the country's state-of-the-art military equipment and flight tactics in a large-scale aerial maneuver.
Iran's show of armed muscle is aimed at demonstrating the country's military offensive capabilities in the wake of escalating war threats against the Islamic Republic.
The upcoming military exercise is scheduled to be launched in Iran's northwestern city of Tabriz on Thursday and will resume in different Iranian cities including Tehran, Isfahan, Hamedan, and Dezfoul.
The Iranian Armed Forces have been holding military exercises on a regular basis after Israel conducted an air maneuver over the Eastern Mediterranean and Greece in early June, which according to Pentagon officials, appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Over 100 Israeli F-16s and F-15s took part in the exercise, which spanned some 900 miles, roughly the distance between their airfields and a nuclear enrichment facility in the central Iranian city of Natanz.
Iran responded in early July by holding an extensive military drill, during which the armed forces test-fired upgraded Iranian-made Shahab-3 missile equipped with a one-ton conventional warhead and capable of hitting targets within a 2,000-kilometer range.
Earlier in September, scores of Iran's fighter jets, surveillance planes, interceptor aircraft and radar drones took part in a joint three-day military exercise.
The maneuvers also involved testing a surveillance network equipped with state-of-the-art systems for identifying enemy aircraft.
After the drill the IRGC Air Force Commander, Brigadier General Hossein Salami warned that Iran's air space would be 'hazardous' and 'high-risk' for aggressor aircraft.
In further preparation for a possible Israeli attack, Iran's Air Force chief, Brigadier General Ahmad Miqani, announced in mid-August that the country has revamped its fighter jet fleet to fly distances of 3,000 kilometers without refueling.
The upgrade would allow Iranian aircraft to fly to Israel and back without needing to refuel.
Tel Aviv has threatened to launch air strikes against Iranian nuclear installations under the pretext that Tehran, a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), has plans to develop nuclear weaponry.
This is while, in its latest report on Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced that it could not find any 'components of a nuclear weapon' or 'related nuclear physics studies' in the country."
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=72249§ionid=351020101
Oh, and another thing. "Given his views on the Iraq War…" What the hell does that mean? O-bomb-a has continually voiced his support for continuing the Israeli/U.S. military adventures:
"These are not complicated positions, but we are given the "choice" between John "Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" McCain and Barack "Threats in 100 different countries" Obama. McCain is beyond the pale for any but the proto-fascists among us, and even they have reservations about his health and sanity. But to question whether the potential ascension of "Saint Barack" is a good thing, to put into the play of questions of his militarism and support for authoritarianism at home, or to outright oppose his candidacy based on lies and war-mongering, is to invite the wrath of the "good liberal" majority.
Beginning with his 2004 convention speech when he called for "missile strikes" against Iran and Pakistan, through his 2008 convention speech imploring America to recognize the "threats of tomorrow," Mr. Obama has based his candidacy no less on fear and militarism than the dreaded Republicans. After explaining to a liberal friend that Mr. Obama called for an additional 92,000 troops for the military, for expansion of the genocide in Afghanistan into Pakistan, and an accelerated war on terror in 100 countries (up from Cheney's 60-country target list), she simply nodded and said, "This is what you have to say to get elected." Say what?"
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21025.htm
Man, I swear at first I thought the Kilted epidemy had befallen.
Let's be clear about one of the most ridiculous Jew serving ideas ever: "Iran is going to attack Israel."
That is never going to happen. Israel has nukes, including those upon submarines. Hasn't the war in Iraq done enough to debase our(not yours Witty, you belong to Israel) ecomomy??
I dare the AIPAC crowd to keep doing what they've accomplished over the next 2 years. There will be no America left for them to subjugate. That will not be all bad.
Hopefully my son serving in the US Military can catch a boat coming home.
I agree with calling a pre-election strike on Iran INSANE, but two things suggest it might happen: the desperation of Republicans to get McCain elected, and the OCTOBER SURPRISE timing.
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Aloha ~~~ Ozzie Maland ~~~ San Diego
Very recently, and over the heads of the USA masses (like the memorandum guaranteeing Israel oil at the expense of the USA masses, etc), the USA regime gave Israel the latest strike jets and also put GIs boot on the ground manning missile defense strike equipment–in Israel.
Methinks, Israel will put up a another false flag attack (as they did against Egypt,) and the USA will respond, sending Palin kids to fight for Israel–or at the very least, USA tax dollars, earning us the hate i
of the World.