Military analysis points in one direction: Shock and awe don’t work

by Philip Weiss on December 30, 2008 · 6 comments

At a time when the American Jewish community is staggered and lost, and starting to question the sagacious leadership of Jeffrey Goldberg, Marty Peretz, and Michael Oren, the Times runs a horrifyingly ethnocentric piece by Israeli military historian Benny Morris, justifying the slaughter of Palestinians because Israel feels "the walls closing in." Why does Israel feel this way? Because, Morris says, Arab states refuse to accept its existence and opinion is changing in the west.

The main problem with this argument is that it is inaccurate. (To plagiarize a smart friend's email) Has Morris ever heard of the Saudi peace initiative? Does Israel have no agency? Is it only a victim of Arab perfidy? One really wonders! Why couldn't they run something by Tom Segev or Gideon Levy alongside it. Or, better, instead of it!

Morris tries to rally American Jewish support for the Gaza slaughter by invoking Israel's fears in 1967. But as military scholar Mike Desch points out:

It may in fact be true that the public in Israel are deeply worried, but the real lessons of 1967, as a spate of recent books (e.g., Segev's 1967) makes clear, are 1) Israel was never really in danger (and large segments of the national security establishment understood that full well) and 2) the victory it won was pyrrhic in the literal sense. It set the stage for Israel's most intractable long-term security problem: the occupation which constitutes the only "existential" threat it faces to its character as a Jewish and democratic state.

Meanwhile, today's piece in Ha'aretz on Israel's military options shows that Israelis are starting to realize that there is no happy ending to this war, that Israel won't realize its objectives. The same doubts creep in to the headline on the front page of the NYT-- "On Fourth Day of Gaza Battle, No End in Sight"– and also the WSJ, where a piece by Zionist Bret Stephens (he once challenged Ian Buruma's right to criticize Israel by hectoring him, "Are you a Jew?") is surprisingly candid about the matter.

…the storm will pass. Then the green flag of the [Hamas] movement will fly defiantly over the tallest building left standing, its prestige hugely boosted — and Israel's commensurately diminished — throughout the Muslim world.

Another military friend explains the problem:

"The key point to keep in mind is that shock and awe — aka modern airpower — looks great during the first few days of combat, but it hardly ever produces a decisive victory, especially against an adversary that is comprised of guerrilla forces like Hezbollah and Hamas. Then, you come face to face with the big question: should we send in ground forces? Israel pulled out of both southern Lebanon and Gaza, because each had turned into a hornet's nest. Do you really want to go back in there? I think not. And if you do, you are quickly going to be up to your eyeballs in alligators. Bottom line: Israel is in deep trouble here. Its only hope is for the US to intervene and shut this one down quickly before it becomes apparent that Israel has gotten itself into a pickle. But that won't happen because the Conference of Presidents and AIPAC and the rest of the lobby make it impossible for Sam to do anything but act as a cheerleader."

Related posts:

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  3. You can now follow Mondoweiss at Talking Points Memo
  4. When Will Hillary Apply ‘There Is No Military Solution’ to Israel/Palestine
  5. Your lobby at work: Americans helped insert new condition, recognition of Israel as a Jewish state

{ 6 comments }

1 anonn December 30, 2008 at 11:57 am

The US threatened the USSR with nukes, after the USSR objected to us air lifting saving
materials and weapons to Israel in the early '70's–else Israel would have lost that war. Now the US is the lone super-power, yet its economy is going down the drain as did the USSR's– Bush is egging Israel on; so after more massacres of the Pals through 2008, leading up to silent "one prez at a time"
Obama taking over–what will Obama do? Nothing, while the smoked and fragmented Pal bodies pile up, until he sees who wins the Israeli election in February. By then, I think there will be a sea change. Many average Americans (and europeans) have time off between Xmas and New Year & there
is more opportunity to take in Gaza on TV news and talk shows, additional to their number one macro priority, which is of course,
the USA economy's dire straits. Even a retard soon realizes there is an agenda in sustained 4:400 kill ratios. And many Americans are waking up to the fact we make and pay for the IAF, and fund the IDF too.

2 Sword of Gideonthe point. December 30, 2008 at 1:12 pm

Sorry that the number of dead Jews doesn't meet with your approval.

3 Richard Witty December 30, 2008 at 1:41 pm

Shock and awe does work if there is an out.

As does mosquito-like shelling.

In this case, Israel and Gazan Palestinians are permanently neighbors, and shock and awe is just pressure in a pressure-cooker, as self-gratifying dissent is similarly.

Family therapy is needed, not shock and awe, and not demonization, as difficult as that is for you to stomach.

4 John Lewis-Dickerson December 30, 2008 at 1:50 pm

*****************************************
"Do you really want to go back in there?"

Take the bait!
Take the bait!
Take the bait!

5 Zionism is Racism December 30, 2008 at 3:48 pm

@anon: do you have any links you can point me to that document the US threat of using nukes against the USSR in the '73 war?

Thanks,
Zionism is Racism

6 anon December 31, 2008 at 11:41 am

Just google around. It's pretty common knowledge on the net–you can start with a veiled reference here:

http://www.dodccrp.org/events/2004_CCRTS/CD/papers/190.pdf

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