Steve Walt scripts Obama to Netanyahu:
First, I was elected president of the United States, and my foreign
policy will be guided by what I believe to be the American national
interest.Second, I am convinced—as are all of my foreign
policy advisors, all of America's other allies around the world, and my
predecessor in the Oval Office — that a two-state solution to the
Israeli-Palestinians is the only feasible way to settle the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This means the creation of a viable
Palestinian state on virtually all of the West Bank and Gaza, with
mutually agreed-upon arrangements on security, air and water rights,
the status of Jerusalem, custody over the holy sites there, and the
refugee issue…Third… Threatening Iran with military force or regime
change merely reinforces its desire for a nuclear deterrent of its own,
and only broad-based diplomacy without preconditions stands any chance
of heading this option off. Military strikes can delay but not prevent
Iran from getting a bomb, and would make both our situation and your
situation worse over the longer term….Fourth,
in addition to removing a major grievance that terrorists use to
recruit followers and justify violence against both of our countries,
ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will undermine Iran's influence
in the region…Fifth, the United States has been committed to
Israel's existence and well-being for 61 years, and that policy will
not change while I am president. But I have learnt in life that when a
good friend is headed for trouble, you don't do them any favors by
remaining silent, or by continuing to offer uncritical or unconditional
support… We have
pressured the Palestinians to accept Israel's existence and to build
effective state institutions, and we will continue to do so. And if
necessary, I will use U.S. influence to convince Israel to do what it
must in order finally achieve a lasting peace with its neighbors. And
if I make the case for that approach to the American people, I am
confident they will support me."
How is supporting Israel in the American National Interest. US presidents for 61 years have gotten this wrong. In reality, supporting Israel has undermined National Security and created more enemies for the US than any other action. Obama needs to be honest and remind Bibi, "we have carried you for 61 years" it is time for you to go it on your own and the best way to start is to make peace.
There is no reason to think that Obama will have any more leverage than past presidents who wanted to buck the Israel lobby. Truman complained bitterly about the wisdom of creating the state, but capitulated under extreme duress and opposition from within his governmetn. Kennedy wanted to regulate the lobby and impose transparency on all the illicit money flows, but was cut down in mid-stream. Bush I made a move on settlement financing, and faced an uproar from all sides. What are Obama's assets? Eric Holder? Jane Harmon? Rahm Emanuel? What more does he have to give? (he already unilaterally ceded the entirety of Jerusalem at AIPAC). What can he withhold (legally, everything under the Glenn Amendment, politically, nothing without bringing down his government). Discussions will probably focus on 1) bombing Iran, 2) Freeing Jonathan Pollard 3) Promising never to investigate AIPAC or arrest top people again. If history serves as any guide….
Backseat driving like this is rather useless. Anyway, there remains no evidence that Iran seeks a bomb.
Obama's core interest is to "spread the wealth" to his core constituency, African-Americans, also the core of his psychological ID. Everything else is a means to that end.
Whaaaaa—?
I see it pretty much as Walt does. If Obama can manage moving Netanyahu and the Israelis into accepting a legitimate two state solution, Walt's fantasizing will likely be the template for the narrative of the historic event.
You have some evidence for that? His actions suggest that his core interest is to "spread the wealth" to the military and the arms business. And the bankers, of course. You may claim to see some African-American trickle-down from all that, but that's a pretty lame argument.