Now that our media are trumpeting the WikiLeaks cables as demonstrating Arab support for attacking Iran, let’s have a look at this 2008 cable from the State Department in Amman, Jordan. The cable shows a much fuller spectrum of realist/monarchical Arab leadership opinion than what’s been on the news. Note that Iran is referred to as an octopus; and that there’s one way to chill the octopus, work on the Palestinian issue. Note the deep concern about the radicalization of the conflict and the Islamicization of the conflict. I find this troubling/grim; and a reminder of something that John Mearsheimer has said, This situation is going to get worse before it gets better. And a reminder of the fact that the Arab League was behind a solution to the conflict since 2002 that Israel and the U.S. have essentially ignored. Emphases mine:
This cable responds to Ref A request for evaluations of third-country reactions to possible U.S. engagement with Iran. Jordan’s leaders believe such engagement would reward regional hardliners while undermining Arab moderates – without convincing Iran to cease its support for terrorism, end its nuclear program or drop its hegemonic aspirations. Jordanian officials argue that the best way to counter Iran’s ambitions is to weaken the salience of its radicalism on the Arab street by fulfilling the promise of a “two-state solution,” resolving other Arab-Israeli disputes, and making sure that Iraq’s political and security institutions are not overwhelmed by Iranian influence when the U.S. drawdown is complete.
If U.S.-Iran engagement does proceed in earnest, Jordan hopes to be closely consulted in advance and for its interests to be taken into account….
The metaphor most commonly deployed by Jordanian officials when discussing Iran is of an octopus whose tentacles reach out insidiously to manipulate, foment, and undermine the best laid plans of the West and regional moderates. Iran’s tentacles include its allies Qatar and Syria, Hizballah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, an Iraqi government sometimes seen as supplicant to Tehran, and Shia communities throughout the region…
According to the GOJ analysis, Iran’s influence derives from the perception that Tehran is able to “deliver” while moderates are not. The main failure of moderates as cited by radicals is ongoing Palestinian suffering and dispossession despite an international consensus favoring a viable, independent Palestinian state living peacefully next to Israel.
…Upper House President Zeid Rifai has predicted that dialogue with Iran will lead nowhere, arguing that if the U.S., the EU, and the Arab states agree that under no circumstances should Iran be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon, military force becomes the only option. “Bomb Iran, or live with an Iranian bomb. Sanctions, carrots, incentives won’t matter,” was how he put it to visiting NEA DAS David Hale in November….
Speaking to PolOffs in early February 2009, Director of the Prime Minister’s Political Office Khaled Al-Qadi noted that the Gaza crisis had allowed Iranian interference in inter-Arab relations to reach unprecedented levels. …
If direct U.S.-Iran talks must happen, the Jordanian leadership insists it not be at the expense of Arab interests, particularly those of moderates like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority….
The Prime Ministry’s Qadi has assessed that Iran sought to “transform the Israeli-Arab conflict into an Islamic-Israeli conflict” and that this strategy was already working with Syria and Qatar.
