Almost universally, everyone I’ve spoken to who isn’t in Egypt over the past few days has expressed a concern that the revolutionary fervor here is waning. I am happy to report that isn’t what I’ve been witnessing. But a few new developments both here and internationally are worth discussing.
News that economic activity was returning to Cairo appeared to suggest that the protesters had begun to grow weary. That isn’t what I’ve observed. Yesterday, more people participated in the Tahrir demonstration than at any other time in the past 16 days. What surprised me was the number of first-time demonstrators who showed up. I don’t doubt that the Ghonim interview touched a lot of people and encouraged them to participate (and many hope he'll lead the movement). But, I also think that increased food and cash security alleviated the sense of siege that persisted for much of last week. For instance, food and water were very difficult to come by in downtown Cairo on Friday and Saturday. Yesterday, I was offered food and drinks at pretty short and regular intervals. I think that that security positively impacted energy levels and turnout.
It bears remembering that millions of Caireans subsist on a day-to-day basis. These people are very vulnerable in a frozen economy and their sacrifice has been disproportionately large because of that. This is their revolution, and they’re present in very large numbers, but they need to survive. The economic activity they engage in is qualitatively and quantitatively different from the kinds of heavyweight activity that the country’s oligarchs engage in; theirs is a “shadow” economy. So I’m not too worried that the NDP elite will recover from the stock market’s extreme devaluation or from short-term drops in foreign direct investment because shops are reopening.
Finally, I worried that very acute economic suffering would cause segments of society – some people only have access to state media – to turn on the demonstrators. Renewed economic activity has helped to prevent that conflict from materializing. There are reports of discontent in areas where tourism is an economic mainstay, but that’s unavoidable.
What also seems to be unavoidable is the recent (a week old?) linkage that’s arisen between the labor rights movement and the democracy movement. I don’t know enough to comment about the unions here, but they’ve struggled a great deal since the IMF 1990s when crony neoliberal privatization dismantled the Nasserist state. Today, thousands of workers are striking around the country; Al Jazeera reports that there are six thousand striking workers in Cairo alone. Their work stoppages are further weakening the state’s coercive apparatus.
The short period of being pleasantly surprised by the statements coming from the White House has ended. What I’m having trouble figuring out isn’t “What happened?” but “Why did anyone bother making principled statements to begin with?” Washington’s squishy fangs and slope-headedness on Suleiman and torture in general did allow the New York Times to list Israel, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE as Mubarak’s cohorts in tyranny. So that’s good, I guess.
Besides being nauseating, Washington’s serial vacillation has exposed demonstrators to more danger. Where some country in the Great Liberal West may have struck a strongly independent and pro-democracy chord – America’s superficiality has served to co-opt them all. Today, it appears that the demonstrators are largely on their own. I think most of them have known that all along.
In any case, the most hopeful signals are being issued by Germany, which is offering to “treat” Mubarak for an indefinite period of time. It’s hard not to notice the echoes of Farouk here; the demonstrators have been comparing Mubarak to him for the past two weeks (Sadat is highly regarded by some for his performance in 1973). Mubarak has managed to somersault backwards over Sadat and Nasser to squat in Farouk’s decadence – a serious achievement. I think that will be his legacy.
Ahmed last night on MSNBC Cenk Uygars program he focused on the idea that protesters start peacefully going into banks, businesses etc protesting involvement with the Mubarak/U.S./Israel regime. You could go over to his site and listen.
Also wondering why the protesters are not protesting Sulieman’s appointment? What do the folks on the square have to say about El Baradei? The idea to have El Baradei lead a transition team? He seems to be being cut out by U.S. and Israel’s interest. Many of our MSM outlets and pundits seem to be undermining El Baradei at every turn. Andrea Mitchell MSNBC’s Richard Engel, former Clinton Administration state dept spokesperson Jamie Rubin undermining El Baradei every chance they get.
What do Egyptian protesters think about El Baradei? He is being cut out
wondering why the protesters are not protesting Sulieman’s appointment?
i have heard they are
Pepe Escobar has an excellent article on this today in the AsianTimes – in it (see excerpt) he is saying that the youth groups are demanding Suleiman step down as well.
link to atimes.com
“The youth groups central to the revolution go way beyond. They want; the resignation of the entire NDP, including Suleiman; a broad-based transitional government appointed by a 14-strong committee, made up of senior judges, youth leaders and members of the military; the election of a council of 40 public intellectuals and constitutional experts who will draw up a new constitution under the supervision of the transitional government, then put it to the people in a referendum; fresh local and national elections; the end of emergency law; the dismantling of the whole state security apparatus; and the trial of top regime leaders, including Mubarak. “
“he is saying that the youth groups are demanding Suleiman step down as well. ”
This makes sense. Just that MSNBC’s Richard Engel, Andrea Mitchell, Rachel Maddow not touching this. Richard Engel, CNN’s Anderson Cooper making sure those cameras do not find any signs that say Sulieman must go.
Sulieman is Israel and the U.S.’s choice.
The only MSMer going after Sulieman is MSNBC’s Cenk Uygar. He has been hammering on Sulieman’s brutal history. The billions that have ended up in Mubarak’s pocket.
All of a sudden El Baradei is not even making our news. Andrea Mitchell, Jamie Rubin, Richard Engel others undermining him..but now they are just silent about him.
Where is El Baradei? And what do the Egyptian people really feel about him?
Israel really fears El Bardei. He has called them out on the illegal settlement expansion and how this undermines any peace agreements. He has shed light on how Israel continues to refuse to sign the NPT. And the man called the Bush administration’s “pack of lies” out before the invasion
Millions of Americans are in admiration of your commitment to PEACEFUL protest. We are right behind you chanting Peaceful peaceful!
There’s been a huge push in US mainstream media to characterize that Egypt is “returning to business as usual” and that the protests are dying down. Even NPR is too busy wagging the dog that way.
That’s a shame because the US public is going to get increasingly out of touch the more we’re lied to. Again.
The lead story in NPR’s hourly news roundup last hour was the spreading strikes in Egypt.
Well don’t they look silly for the stuff they were saying the day before. If, you know, they actually bothered to journalize their journalism.
Cenk Uygar really did some stimulating of that idea the other night on his program
Of a fervor deficit I have no fear. Fervor, like the song says, “is not a new thing, fervor started long ago”.
Apres Egypt le deluge.
Thanks for keeping us posted, Ahmed. Any other emerging forces – pre-existing or new – besides the trade unions and some charismatic individuals like Ghonim? Altogether, if you have the time and the peace of mind, a little background on Egyptian society and politics might go a long way. There’s a lot of ignorance out here :-)
This all very good news Ahmed. It was clear last week that there was not going to be a quick solution and the delivery of food, water, commerce in general would have to be restored if the uprising could continue much longer. It looks like this obstacle has been overcome.
You write (regarding US action) Today, it appears that the demonstrators are largely on their own. I think most of them have known that all along.
What else could they think? After all you guys have essentially ousted our puppet who we paid over $40 billion and may very well topple the entire regime. The US will do what it can to save its investment. However, it is a mistake to over-estimate US influence. Just remember what happened in Iraq. In spite of total US military occupation we have proved powerless to stop the installation of a government that is basically allied to Iran. No observer of this process can believe that this was an outcome desired by the US, certainly no half sentient observer in the Arab world. The Iraq lesson I believe is very important in Egypt today. All of the players on both sides are aware of America’s limited influence. The more that people believe in this then even less influence for the US.
There is the one silver lining in that cloud of the US fiasco in Iraq. Ten years back a people’s uprising that threatened the regime would be opposed by the US with what would be perceived as a credible military option — today that option has expired.
I for one had been quite concerned that Mubarak had simply switched tactics from organizing the goon squad, which backfired, to simply waiting it out until the protesters weary. I can’t describe how much respect I have for the people who demonstrate day after day with their lives on the line.
Great respect for them. It shows how badly they need this change.
An inspiration
There need to be pressures on foreign embassies of Egypt in US,UK,Russia,Canada,India,Brazil,Pakistan,malaysia and other countries including South Africa to resign en masse. Media can facilitate this developments
I think it’s a longer play but it’s going to be worth it bin nihayah.
“There are reports of discontent in areas where tourism is an economic mainstay, but that’s unavoidable.’
Last week I spoke with a young Egyptian friend. He and friends opened a small inexpensive hotel in Downtown Cairo. It was doing surprisingly well and he’d quit his job to work there full time. Bookings were solid weeks in advance…..now, all those reservations have been canceled. He said sadly the hotel would probably fold.
I was aware it was almost impossible for him to join the demonstrations, I still asked if he’s been demonstrating. He reply “no”….”BUT I agree with them 100%. They’re doing what’s right. Maybe Egypt will be saved, I hope so. I will loose five years of my life if my hotel closes. I don’t want that to happen; maybe it must happen. If we have freedom, if we have democracy…..what’s good for all Egypt is most important.” He is probably an exception to others in the tourist trade….
Egyptians exhibit much love for their county. They’re willingly making huge sacrifices in hopes Egypt will gain freedom; become a democracy.
Doesn’t sound like a bad virus to me.
this is a really inspiring post. i’m so thrilled to hear thr energy and passion have not waned.
“Why did anyone bother making principled statements to begin with?”
that’s what they do best, the rest is down hill all the way.
as you close in on destiny
ever onward
children of the nile
side by side
united
everyone a leader
invincible
makers of history
children of the nile
Ahmed Moor,
Have you heard anything about that article published by an Egyptian newspaper? Well, the article states that in recent weeks, Egypt’s internal security used inmates from one of the prisons to plant explosives at a Christian church.
I know that the government has been stoking sectarian and Muslim-Christian tensions in an effort to crack down on whatever liberties Egyptians had left, so it doesn’t surprise me if the government has been staging false flag operations, as well.
You mean on last New Year’s eve, Avi? link to weeklyintercept.blogspot.com
Reminds me of the Lavon Affair. In that case Israel denied it for a half century or so, then gave award recognition to those involved in that false flag attack.
Here’s USA Today of 1-23-11 showing Muraback security blaming it on Al Quaida in Gaza false flag OP: link to usatoday.com
More recently, Egypt’s general prosecutor on Monday opened probe on former Interior Minister Habib el-Adly’s reported role in the New Year’s Eve bombing of al-Qiddissin Church in Alexandria in which 24 people were killed, an Egyptian lawyer told Al Arabiya. link to alarabiya.net
Further, a more recent bombing of another Christian Church in Egypt, near the Gaza border, has been reported, although right now I can’t find the link.
Saudi Arabia says it will give Mubarak’s regime the 1.5 billion foreign aid if the US decides to withold it to push towards the democratic Egypt its people want: link to nypost.com
Tyrants must stick together.
And Suleiman threatened Egyptian people with military coup d’etat, while hundreds of thousands of people are still in al-Tahrir Square and insist on Mubarak removal of power. Looks like the status quo forces in the Middle East are not waiting for Obama to decide whether he’s with the power elite of the region or with the people (for all the world to see, either way). AIPAC is the swing vote to Obama. Watch and see. However, while he treads water, hoping for a break, the Egyptian people may take the matter out of his hands. It will be fun to see the Acorn style community organizer, Obama, be forced to be a hero or asshole–by the community oragnizers in Egypt dating back to last April and finally given a jump start by a labor strike, then–most effectively, by Tunisia.
Revolution, one by one, anatomy lesson by Egyptians 4 voiceless Americans & Palestinians: link to youtube.com
Selfishness cannot be a main characteristic for this job. I’m not sure Americans are up to it.
does one or does one not join the revolution?
the point of no return -
“Well wadayaknow! It’s not just me who hates the way it is and wants things turned around. Count me in!”
“
Compare the State Dept stance: 1948 v 2011 link to thecable.foreignpolicy.com
America, welcome to the era of Arab democracy: link to nationalinterest.org