Today brings more evidence that Republican congressmen have turned on the war and are talking about a September deadline out of fear of the political consequences of persevering in a failed policy. I’m an optimist; I think this trend will accelerate and force Bush ultimately to concede failure and end the U.S. adventure there.
In Sept. 2005, I had a friendly argument on this issue with Dan Ellsberg after a hearing in the Capitol. He said that Vietnam showed that public opinion wasn’t enough. The American people turned against the war in 1968, after the Tet Offensive, but it took seven years to get out.
âAfter Tet, LBJ said, ‘Well if I’ve lost Cronkite, I’ve lost middle America,’" Ellsberg said. "But public opinion doesnât do it by itself. It just doesnât… A
president can ignore the public or fool it. By early 1968, 20,000
Americans had been killed. Well, another 15,000 were killed in â68. The
people were against the war before we lost them, but we went ahead and
lost them. Nixon got in [to office] and told people he was getting out. He had no
intention of getting out. He had no intention of letting
Saigon be taken."
Bush was equally dug in on Iraq, Ellsberg said. "And public opinion will have even less effect
than in ’68, ’69." What matters is that Congress defund the war. "I think [Bush is] counting on a 9/11 to
change opinion.
I disagreed with Ellsberg, and mumbled something along these lines: Since Vietnam, the media climate has changed completely. Everything happens faster. The media are extremely conventional (i.e., they banged the drum for Iraq in ’02-’03), but they’re giant, and when a criticism becomes conventional wisdom, they become a pack of bullies that won’t go away. The anti-Iraq conversation going on now among the people, the media, and the politicians makes public opinion extremely dynamic, makes the ’68 model seem totalitarian. In ’71, the Times was brave to publish the Pentagon Papers. This time round, it will have plenty of company, and no one is going to wait around for five years.
Ellsberg said he hoped I was right. I’m sure he’d say the same now…
