Kerry leaves Amman
This post is part of Marc H. Ellis’s “Exile and the Prophetic” feature for Mondoweiss. To read the entire series visit the archive page.
Was I wrong yesterday when I claimed that John Kerry’s peace process mission was a failure? Just he because Kerry wrangled a last minute agreement from Israel and the Palestinians to come to Washington to talk about talking – over six months no less – doesn’t place the peace process in Kerry’s win column. It also doesn’t forfeit my claim that both Kerry and President Obama have become the latest of America’s lame ducks in the Middle East.
I hope I’m wrong. I doubt it.
Why did Israel agree to talks? Some believe that the drumbeat commentary of the coming end of the Two State option forced Israel’s hand. Others think that the new European Union guidelines separating Israel and its occupation, the BDS movement and the growing international sense that Israel had gone too far was the catalyst. In other words, Israel had to do something. Why not look ready for peace and at the same time exhaust yet another American administration by agreeing to talk – about talking.
Since the last time there was direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians was several years ago, after this latest go another several years will elapse. Buying time to further consolidate the occupation is a win for Israel. Why not agree to talk – about talking – and further consolidate the occupation at the same time?
Beside the Middle East is in turmoil. By agreeing to talk – about talking – the spotlight on Israel is diverted. Over the next year, Syria and Egypt will be the focal point. Better to be perceived as cooperative rather than intransigent.
Why did the Palestinians agree to talks? With the region in turmoil, attention has been diverted from Palestinians, too. Syria has replaced Palestine as the center of regional squabbling and the devolution of Egypt’s political and economic life is foreboding. Gulf money is flowing everywhere but Palestine. The region’s militaries and oligarchs want Israel in on their security guarantees.
Palestinians are increasingly isolated. They exist as negative symbolic markers without power. The instability Palestinians caused in the past paid dividends for Middle East powerbrokers. Palestinian usefulness is at an ebb. For some rulers in the region this is a time where Palestinians and dissenters in general can be disciplined once and for all.
The landswaps deal that the Arab League signed onto said it all. For those in power in the Middle East, the Palestinian issue has been resolved in favor of Israel.
So it seems that the Palestinian agreement to talk had little to do with Israel as a partner for peace. While this may sound preposterous at first, think what Palestinians might get from Israel for talking – about talking.
A real Palestinian state, with the settlements dismantled, the freedom to control their own internal affairs and borders, with their own military and ability to conduct a foreign policy? No one on the Palestinian side believes that any of these possibilities are seriously on the table.
In the announcement of the Washington meetings, Kerry stressed once again the economic incentives that would flow to Palestine – a theme he has harped on since his first trip to the region as Secretary of State. Remember Kerry’s four-billion- dollar plan to transform the Palestinian economy? Now he’s talking about reducing unemployment in the West Bank. To stress economic benefits when everyone one knows the plight of the Palestinians is about occupation rather than economics means that Palestinians are looking toward the United States rather than Israel.
All of this raises a serious question. What is the agreement to talk – about talking – really about?
These talks are useless.
As one Israeli general put it: The minimum an Arab would accept is more than Israel is willing to give.
The Jews will never give up the eastern half of Jerusalem (and I do not blame them).
The Arabs will never surrender the right of return. (I understand them, but do not agree)
There is no hope of peace.
A better plan would be to spend the money wasted on these summits to pay Young Palestinians to leave == For Islamic Asia, for South America, for Indonesia, etc.
Pay them $100,000 per person.
It sounds awful … BUT NO PEACE IS POSSIBLE AT ALL.
At least get the Palestinians out of there.
“A real Palestinian state, with the settlements dismantled, the freedom to control their own internal affairs and borders, with their own military and ability to conduct a foreign policy? No one on the Palestinian side believes that any of these possibilities are seriously on the table.”
Not on the table?? They are not even in the realm of vague possibilities. Anyone who thinks GoI will ever abide an armed Palestine is in la-la land. As long as Israel exists the West Bank will always remain a demilitarized buffer zone between Jews and armed Arabs. The best the Palestinians can hope for is swaps for the settlements, the right to administer a non-militarized West Bank, and, maybe, the right to call themselves “a state.”
“What is the agreement to talk – about talking – really about? ”
What it’s really about is Iran. GoI is making huge concessions here for a reason. GoI will never do something because it is the right or moral thing to do, there is always a quid pro quo. When GoI is talking a quid as big as this, the quo has to be commensurate. That can only be USG agreeing to take the lead, or at least join in, on an attack on Iran.
Obama would love to be the president to crack this nut — he probably wants it more than Carter does. If Obama has to pay the price of starting what will be an unpopular war to do that, well, so be it. At least he’s smart enough to wait until he’s on the way out of the WH to pull the trigger.
The Israelis win, the Iranians lose big time, the Americans pick up the tab with lives and lucre, and the ME could go up in smoke. That’s going to be the price for getting GoI off the Palestinians’ back, and that doesn’t even address Gaza and Hamas, who are not going to buy into this deal with the devil.
A couple years after the dust settles, GoI will organize a false flag missile attack from Palestine and use that as an excuse to re-occupy, and GoI will be right back where it is now, but with Iran no longer threatening its hegemony.
Excellent observations Marc “Fears that Netanyahu could drag out any negotiations were fuelled by an unidentified Israeli government minister saying the prime minister’s primary objective was merely to show willingness to negotiate, and that he did not intend to engage in a far-reaching peace process”. Harriet Sherwood, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jul/20/israel-release-palestinian-prisoners-talks and [Reuters] – New Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, if resumed, would take months, an Israeli official said on Friday after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry announced the sides had laid the groundwork for negotiations.
“We are talking about months, both to ensure the process is substantive and comprehensive, and to get us past September,” the official said, on condition of anonymity. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/19/us-palestinians-israel-talks-duration-idUSBRE96I11720130719 Stop the Palestinians applying for the UN agencies and formally joining the ICC a win win for the Israelis, surely Abbas cannot sign on to that, can he?
I don’t hope you’re wrong that the Kerry Scam was a failure – I hope the Bennett and the rest of the Settler state cause Israel to CONTINUE doing what it has already been doing except now with CONSEQUENCES
‘Negotiations’ at gunpoint or with a psychologically battered victim like Abbas are certainly NOT a good starting point from which Palestine should negotiate with it’s abuser.
I think the conflict MUST be taken out of the hands of the Israelis and the ‘Dennis Ross’es’ and ‘John Kerrys’ and ‘adjudicated’ at the ICC and by EU/then worldwide BDS of Israel.
The conflict must be ‘adjudicated’ – not ‘negotiated’ – by conformance to UN Resolutions Israel is currently violating, to the Geneva Conventions which Israel is currently violating, and to International Law which Israel is currently violating
Negotitations is what Israel is trying to do IN LIEU of being held to the laws it is violating. Palestinians should say NO DICE
Negotiations with Israel are POINTLESS and I wouldn’t trust Abbas negotiating with the Israelis on behalf of the Palestinian Diaspora any further than I could throw him
Why did the Palestinians agree to stall ICC action while Israel continues Illegal expansion.
These talks about talks are going nowhere so might as well put the pressure on Israel now.
BDS needs to be accelerated and the EU needs to up the ante.
Israel will not co operate unless they are held in a headlock and squeeze their air pipe.